Top Secret RUPr<IMilRA
SPECIAL ANALYSIS
PAKISTAN: The USSR and the Afghan Insurgents
incursions but increasingly likel in the months ahead.
Pakistan seem unlikely in the near term, the Soviet engagement of the rebels spreads
to Pakistan across the poorly marked and weakly controlled border has been useful but notto the Afghan insurgents. Tribal areas in Pakistan provide safehaven for rebel dependents, supply bases, and training areas, but most insurgent operations are launched from and conducted within Afghanistan, and most rebel arms and supplies have beendesertions orthe Afghan military.
Despite Soviet and Afghan charges, our evidencethat Afghan refugees in Pakistan, who may soon numberillion, have playedarginal role in the insurgency. Host are the very young or old, unfit for fighting. ew have joined the rebel ranks. Very few are under Pakistani control in government camps; most live with fellow tribesmen in Pakistan or inencampments. The refugees would probably resist any Pakistani efforts to repatriate them forcibly, and. Pakistan's fellow Pathan tribesmen would also object.
Even if it wanted to, Islamabad could not easily control private arms sales to the insurgents and access across the border. Enforcement of arms control hasbeen spotty, and deployment of military units tothe border would probably lead to clashes with the insurgents and to criticism from other Islamic countries.
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