BOLIVIA: MILITARY SETBACK

Created: 1/1/1980

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Secret

BOLIVIA: Military Setback

The gooermient 'e strong rebuff of the military 'e latestagainst the election process may interrupt ohronic oOup plotting at least until after the presidential election scheduled forune,

The military chiefs have repeatedly underestimated President Gueiler's determination to reinstate elected government and have overestimated the public's tolerance for military intrusion into the transition plans. Their record leaves open the possibility for further efforts to derail the election.

Military hardliners, fearing that the election could jeopardize their power base, had demanded it be postponed for one year. Gueiler's rejection on Thursday of the demand and her attempts to thwart an earlier effort by the military to declare the US Ambassador persona non grata ^je forced the military to reevaluate plangoup.

Coup plotters in the high command grosslythe reaction of the public and government. The attack on the Ambassador has produced only limitedsupport, while the outcryossible delay in the election suggests that most Bolivians would resist an interruption of the constitutional process at this late date.

ccret

Gueiler's actions have added to the differences among key military leaders. Commanders reportedly are questioning the ability of General Garciaprincipalcarryoup, and midlevel officers are reported to be disenchanted with the high command. Lack of unity proved fatal to the coup attempt last November. mmmmmmmml

-