USSR: OLYMPIC GAMES PREPARATIONS

Created: 1/9/1980

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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MEMORANDUM FOR: Thehe Vice President Secretary of State Secretary of Defense Assistant to the Secretary for National Securfty Affairs

USSR: Olympic Games Preparations

1. The attached assessment, USSR:

_ Olympic Games Preparations, nay be of interest to you in lightossible Olympic boycott. CIA

analysts believe that inside theoycott's heartening effects on some Westernizing dissidents would be offset by reinforcement oftendencies to xenophobia. oycott would keep the Afghan issue alive and force the Soviets toontinued barrage of criticism from some sections of the international cocnunity. However, the Soviets would also be able to play the role of an aggrieved partyartially sympathetic international audience and to utilize international disagreements over the boycott to exacerbate tensions between. and ncn-boycotting (or reluctantly boycotting) states, probably including sone. allies. X

an

TURNER

2. As for the economic lossoycott, we believe it would be small. In the main, losses would be confinededuction in hard currency revenues from tourism and broadcast rights. The Soviets expect hard currency revenues of an0 million. Most of this income (perhaps at least two-thirds) is In hand, however, and the Soviets, in the event of boycott, would balk at refunding cash already received. All but S5 million ofillion paid. broadcast rights, for example, has been paid. (NBC's contract with the USSRforce majeure" article which might apply, however. In any event, NBC reportedly is coveredolitical risk insurance policy with Lloyds oforeign tourists wishing to attend the ganes (at least Americans) were required to prepay Olyinpic package tours by the end Barring outright cancellation of the games, Moscow would argue that foreign tourists were welcome regardless of individual country participation. "JWC.

STANSFI

;tachaent:

opy No. 37

Original document.

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