National Intelligence Daily
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IRANi Election Results
President Bari-Sadr'a aupportera are continuing to fare poorly in the legislative electiona. In Tehran, whereeats are at atake,andidates have won first-round victories. Four are members of the hardlineRepublic Party, two are independents who oppose Bani-Sadr, one supports the radical Kujahedin, and four are independents with no known ties to either theor his opponents. Only two winners in the capital are likely to back Bani-Sadr in the Assembly. National rosults may not be announced until after the New Year holidays which start on Fridayr widespread charges ofand fraud may furtherinal counting.
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SPECIAL ANALYSIS
IRAN: Recent Communist Activity
While the "eak central poverment remains preoccupied with the hostage crieie, pry-Zovict political groups continue to expand their influence in Iran. The Iranian Ccmmuniete are etill far front ready to challenge Ayatollah Khomeini directly, but they are workinp their oau into increasingly stronger pooir.ione. ]
Moscow probably sees its best option Cor now as one of attempting to curry favor with the current regime and of encouraging its anti-Western stance.
The pro-Soviet Communist Tudeh (Masses) Partyopenly and portrays itself as the junior partnercoalition withcertainly withor direction. The Ayatollah, who isappears willing to tolerate the Tudehas it backs him and he judges it to be weak. Bani-Sadr has become increasingly critical ofand is apparently more inclined to crackthe party, although he has not yet taken Anysteps against it-
Estimates of Tudeh membership range from The party has little maaa appealof its well-known subservience to Moscow.
At this point, the Tudeh could probably come to power only if the government collapsed or if the partyilitary takeover along the lines of the coup In Afghanlatan in Toudeh regime would require masolve Soviet aupport, including military Intervention.
rebuffed Tudeh o
Both groups claim to be independent of Moscow irobal luppoi
on. but both
probably have been infiltrated to aome extent by Tudeh aupporters. In any case, both operate cloaely with the varioua minority groupB and contribute to keeping the Tehran government weak and off balance.
Involvement with Minorities
Regime officials suspect that the Soviets are deeply involved in ethnic dissidence throughout Iran, despite Soviet and Tudeh declarationa that they favor peaceful resolution of Iran's ethnic conflicts. All of theethnic dissident groups are leftist, leftist allies, or vulnerable to leftists. The best organized have-on* had contacts with the USSR or its intermediaries.
Iranian officials are also concerned that themay be increasing their activities amongin southwestern Iran. We have
dence of such activity, but several Baluchi dissident groups have long had contacts with the SovietsJ" likely to seek aid from the Soviet forces in Afghanistan.
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