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National Intelligence Daily
Monday
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SITUATION REPORTS
IRAN
The Shah's departure from Panama will undercut President Bani-Sadr 'a efforte to consolidate hie political position and complicate his already troubled relations with Ayatollah Khomeini.
Bani-Sadr and Foreign Minister Ghotbzadeh have been closely identified with Tehran's diplomatic and legal efforts to extradite the Shah from Panama. Theirinthe militants occupying the US Embassy and tho hardline clerics led by Ayatollahwill now argue that tho President's approach has failed and that only the continuedof the hostages will lead to the Shah's return to Iran. I-
the hostages' tate remain* tied to the Shah's returnIran. I I
The trend of recont events has been against Bani-Sadr. and his political position is now more fragile than ever. He may try to appease his critics by shifting blame toongtime rival, or byardline public position. There isossibility that at some point Bani-Sadr will conclude that hin position is no longer viable and resign. | ]
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ARAB STATES t Hardline Summit Apparently Postponed
Syrian President Assad held talks this weekend with visiting Algerian President Bendjedid, who will go on to Jordan today and to Iraq later this week. Bendjedid mayonciliatory message from Assad designed to paper over Syrian differences with Jordan and Iraq In order to rejuvenate Arab opposition to the US-sponsored peace process.
Press reports from Damascus indicate that asummit of Syria, Libya, Algeria, South Yemen, and the PLO expected to open in Damascus later this week probably will be postponed. No official explanation has been offered, but the coming US, Egyptian, and Israeli talks in Washington and the continuing dispute between Libya and the PLO presumably were principal causes for the delay.
Original document.
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