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National Intelligence Daily
Tuesday
SPECIAL ANALYSIS
IRANi The Assembly Election and the Hostaora
Ayatollaheion to oontinus to give theresponsibility ft', the fate of the hostages threatenenew complications into the power struggle in Iran. little reason to believe that thewill notchoose to raleaoe the hostages withouteonoeBBions unless it hae dirsot orders from Khomeini. the election for the Asssmbly willruoial test of
President Bani-Sadr's ability to consolidate hie held on power.
Host of Bani-Sadr's opposielon comes from Ayatollah Behushti'a Islamic Republic Party. Behoshti and his hard-line supporters expect to do better in theelection than they did in tho presidential voting last month, and hope thereby to reduce Bani-Sadrigurehead.
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The outcome of tho election will bo furtherby th* participation of tho radical Mujahedinthe leftist Fedayeen group, and numoroue minority candidates. The largeat Kurdieh organization, the Kurd-iah Democratic Party, is backing the Mu]ahedln*a The pro-Soviet Tudeh Party and Admiral Madanl's supporters are also putting forward slatee ofn all,andidatea have filedeata.
Khomeini haa said little about the election beyond the comment that the candidatea should be "goode may intervene aa he did in the presidential vote, however, by disqualifying leftist candidates. Theof Interior has already omitted aome Tudeh and Fedayeen candidates from olectoral lists, but there ha* notormal ban of the left.
Prospects
If Khoemini does not intervene, the most likelyof the electionivided Assembly, unsure of its responsibilities and eager to establish its revolutionary credentials. The constitution gives tho Assemblyfor determining its own internal regulations, and the legislators will have to apend some time on these. The Assembly will also have torime minister named byteak that could prove difficult If the lelamlc Republic Partyajority.
Regardless of their political loyaltiea, theprobably will want to move cautiously on theissue and not get too far in front of Khomeini. They may delay any decision by initiating anof the US and the Shah; the conatltutlon gives tho Assembly authority to conduct inveatigatlona of national problems. |
In any case, Khomeini could overrule tho Assembly.
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ConBtltutional Powers
Tha Iranian constitution gives executive power to the supreme religioue leader (Ayatollahhe Preaidont, and the Prime Minister, but it isvague about many aspects of tho poweramong them. If Bani-Sadr canrime Minister with close ties to himself, the President's position will be stiengthened. If tho Islamic Republic Party can blocx his nominee in the Assembly, Bani-Sadr probably will loae much of hla authority. Hhatover tho case,nl will retain ultimata power and canall othera.
If Khomeini chooses, he can refer any Aaaemblyon the hostagea to tha Council ofcomposed of six clerics and sixlafor overseeing all legialation. Khomeini haa so far appointed the six clerics himself; they aremembers of the Qom Theological Society, agroup that was among the earliest backers of the Embassy takeover. The six lawyers are to be appointed by the Assembly. | |
The President cannot move too quickly towardof the hostages without risking Khomeini's wrath. Moreover, tha Supremebycharge the President with violating hia duties toward the Aaaombly and recommend to Khomeini that thebo diamiaaed. The situation, therefore, is ripe for continued temporizing by Khomeini.
Original document.
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