situation report
iran
ae the full impaot on iran of tho aborted US retoue mieeion oinka in, harp inoreaee in the level of threats to execute the hootagee if any additional military action ie taken.
Tha militants' statement yeaterday implied that they do not plan on taking any action againat tha hos< tagea immediately. Nonetheless, we believe they will take several stops.
Vlalta by the Red Cross and families of the hostages will almost certainly be refused for the foreseeable future.
iving conditlona for the hoatagea will probably deteriorate. The hoatagea are likely to face more solitarycancellation of the already minimal exercise periods outdoors, and mora armed guards.
ome of the hostages may be moved to othor locationa aa "inaurance" against the poa-slbility of another attack.
o doubt, in any caae, that all of tho
hostages will be moved because the mili-tanta probably are unwilling to relinquish completely control of them.
Ayatollah Khomeini's statement yeaterday repaatod familiar thamea. He accused President Carter of being prepared to "commit anyn order to beand warned that any attack on Iran will lead to violence throughout the Muslim world. Khomeini also charged tha US with responsibility for tha unrest in the Kurdiah region and at Iran's univeraitiaa.
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West Europoon Roactlona
EC governments are limiting their public criticism of the rescue mission in order to maintain Allied solidarity, but most of them are clearly unhappy over the timing and outcome. Although most EC governments agreed to economic sanctions in the hope that the US would not undertake military action, they are unlikely toanish suggestion that sanctions bewhen the EC heads of government meet tomorrow in Luxembourg. They will, however, voice concern about the US failure to consult them.
Although West German Chancellor Schmidt has voiced his understanding of the US need for action because of building public pressure, he had repeatedly cautioned against military action. In fact, the West Germans took the lead in the EC decision on sanctions to forestall the needS military role.
France has not yet reacted publicly to the rescue attempt. The Thatcher government has reaffirmed its support for the US, noting that the unsuccessful mission has not lessened the need for Allied unity. London anticipates that the passage of enabling legislation for Iranian sanctions, agreed to by the EC last Tuesday, will now be more difficult in some countries, but not in the UK.
Arab Reactions
There have been no reports of anti-US demonstrations in any Arab country. (U)
Algerian, Libyan, and Syrian media are likely to exploit the theme of US "aggression" against Muslims and make renewed calls for sanctions against the US,an oil cutoff. The radicals, with tho probableof Iraq, also may offer token assistance to Iran to ward off possible further actions by the US.
Of more immediate concorn, Arab extremists friendly tosome radicalattempt to retaliate by mounting terrorist operations against US facilities or personnel abroad.
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There has been no public reaction from Iraq yet. Tehran radio reported some new skirmishes along the border yeaterday but did not link them to the US operation.
The failure of the mission ia likely to dismay Arab moderates and cause some to queation further the ability of tho US to help defend the region from threats posed by the Soviets and the radical Arabs. They will compare the operation unfavorably to the successful Israeli operation in Uganda
Over the short term, the moderates will be under increasing pressure to play down their tiea to the US, and tho abortive mission may cause further reluctance to cooperate militarily with the US. Thoae Arab coun-triaa publicly alleged to have aupported theparticularlybe targets of radical Arab criticism, and perhaps terrorist attacks. As tho closest US ally in the region, Israel also could bo the target of intensified terrorism.
Pakistan
An official Pakistani upokesnan last night termed tho aborted US rescueserious violation" of Iran's sovereignty that could have far-reaching conse-quencea for regional aecurity. He denied foreign press reports that Pakistani bases had been used by the US aircraft, and praised Iranian Foreign Miniater Ghotbzadeh'a "statesmanlike" reaction in counaeling restraint. (U)
USSR
Soviet commentary on the rescue mission has been harsh, but there has been nothing in the Soviet reaction linking the US move to Soviet security interests, nor any Indication that Moscowirect response. Tho Sovieta dismissed the President's statement that the missionumanitarian action and accused the US of "reckless actions." ASS report reiterated Soviet
claims that the US is using the hostage issueretext to pressure Iran and to strengthen the American military presence in the area. In Paris, Foreign Minister Gromyko said the USSR was resolutely opposed to any military measures against Iran.
The Soviet reaction appears to reflect Moscow's apprehension and uncertainty about US intentions toward Iran an well as its interest in exploiting the US move to further its ties with Tehran. Soviet comment has sought to use the mission to inflame Iranian opinion against the US. One TASS dispatch, for example, reported Iranian claims that the US forces resorted to violence against Iranians at the landing area and implied they had killed an oil tank truck driver. I I
A Soviet Persian-language broadcast charged that the President was guided solely by political TASS has also criticized the NATO countries for failing to stop US "reckless actions." (U)
Cuba
President Fidel Castro hasessage to Khomeini expressing "solidarity" in the face of "grave threats" made by the "Yankee imperialists" against the Iranian revolution. (U)
China
reviously scheduled meeting with Ambassador Woodcock yesterday, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Wenjin expressed sadness and regret over the American deaths and continued sympathy for tho US as it tries to resolve the hostage crisis. Chinahas not yet publicly commented on the rescue mission*
Japanese Prime Minister Ohira today was generally sympathetic to the US action- he stated that the aborted mission will not affect Japanese sanctions against Iran.
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Original document.
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