NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Created: 3/6/1980

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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National Intelligence Daily

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SPECIAL ANALYSIS

iraq-ussr: Deteriorating Relations

CIA

The Soviet move into Afghanistan has strengthened Iraqi eus-pioions of the valuelose alliance uith the USSR. It has also given substance to Baghdad's fears, initially aroused by the US-Iranian confrontation, that inoreassd superpower competition in the Persian Gulf area would spoilIraq's ohanass of replacing Iran as the dominant regional power.

Signaooling in Iraqi-Soviet relations have been visible for several years. The growing soviet involvement in Ethiopia and South Yemen, coupled with Baghdad's harsh repression of the Iraqi Communist Party, have long been irritants in the relationship, i

Third World and Islamic reaction to the Soviet invasion is accelerating the rate at which relations are deteriorating. Iraqi President Saddam Husayn la engagedigorous effort to build Iraq's prestige in tho Nonaligned Movement, and if moderate members of the Movement succeed in their pushlenary session on Afghanistan, Iraq may be forced once again torominent anti-Soviet stance. | |

Similarly, the pan-Arab charter Saddam Husaynproposed is aimed as much at limiting the Soviet military presence in Arab countries as it is atthe establishment of US bases. If the charter is approved by the Arab League, political and economic sanctions could be invoked against South Yemen, where the Soviets maintain important naval and air facilitiei. The chartor would also provide Syria further excusesurn aaidr periodic Soviet roquests for port facilities.

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Economic and Military Re I. at lent

Soviet exports to Iraq hava riaan aharply In tha laat four yaara and Iraq haa larga outatanding commorcial contraota with thafor electricwhich will mean continued economic activity in the naxt aavaral yaara. | |

Baghdad, however, is dissatisfied with theof Soviet and Eaat European contractora, andfinancial capability is enabling it to tapand other Western sources of advancodexpertise.

Baghdad remains militarily dependent on tho USSR, largely becauae of Iraq's larga inventory of Sovietequipment. owever,ith ita burgeoning oil revenues, has ordered about S3 billion in Waatarn military equipment, neatly from Franca. | |

Thla trend has accelerated alnca tha invasion of Afghanistan. In February, Iraqettor of intent to buy naval ships9 billion from Italy, and Baghdad apparently ia conalderlng buying mora fighter aircraft from Franoe. Tha Iraqis are alio trying tospare parts and maintenance sarvioea for thoirequipment from Yugoalavia, Romania, and India, which all Import algnificant quantities of Iraqi oil.

Rumors that Iraq was considering abrogating2 friendship treaty with tha USSR lad the Soviets to warn laat month that "hoatlla acta" by Iraq would loadoduotion in tha flow of Soviet military aaaiatanoe. Denial of military spare parti alona would have sorioui consequences for the Iraqi armed foroes. Neverthelaaa, Saddam Husayn may be more willing now than in the paat toiaruption in Soviet arma deliveries1 tho Iranian military ia in disarray and Syria la preoccupied with leraal and Lebanon.

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D

Prospects

Iraq la likely to continue ita drift away from the USSR toward more genuine nonalignment. Baghdad will probablyi

ontinue purauit of an Arab leadership role. Seek to reatore atabla relatione with Iran.

efforts to increase Iraqi prestige in

the Nonaligned Movement (Baghdad will succeed Cuba aa leader of the Movement.

closer ties with Weatern Europe and

Japan and consider strengthening

Hareh 19

Original document.

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