SITUATION REPORT
iran
Ayatollah Beheshti's rerarka on the hoetage ieeue yeeteraay refleot an apparent desire to keep hie political options open.
The Islamic Republic Party chief commented that it might be possible to pardon tho hostagesrial,olitical resolution of the crisis could bo reached. He added, however, that tho National Assembly might not consider the issue until June or July. (U)
An astute politician, Baheshti is likely to follow shifts in the public mood closely. He is careful to avoid taking an unambiguous position on the hostages that could leave him open to criticism. His maneuveringhis judgment that his party's political survival depends upon continued support from the Iranian masses.
relations with iraq
Both countries, however, continue to exchangeattacks. Tehran Radio yesterday evidently calledholy war- to overthrow the regime in Baghdad. (U)
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in turn is calling for Iranians to overthrow Khomeini and is demanding that Iran agree to restore Iraq's full sovereignty over the waterway between the two countries. The Iraqi leader also is saying that Iran must withdraw from the three disputed islands in the Persian Gulf and acknowledge the rights of Iran's Arab minority in Khuzestan Province. (U)
Ghotbzadoh's moderate comments may have been in preparationrip to various Arab countries now apparently scheduled to begin Saturday. He hada trip to Syria and Algeria, and press reports indicate he now may also visit Lebanon, Bahrain, and Kuwait. (U)
EC, Meetings on Iran
The EC politicalthe request of Italy andmeeting in Rome this afternoon to lay the groundwork for the EC foreign ministers' session next Tuesday on Iran.
CHINA-US: Comments on Iran
Beijing ham again urged the US to exeraiee reetraint tcvard Iran. (U)
A commentary published in People's Daily on Sunday stated that the US decision to break diplomatic ties and the "strong reaction" in Iran "will bring further deterioration in US-Iranian relations which is obviously not in the interests of both countries." The commentary reiterated Beijing's principal concern that the US and Iran avoid giving the Soviets any opportunity that they con exploit. (U)
On the same day the Xinhua news agency described Soviet tactics designed ultimately to gain control over Persian Gulf oil sources. The report cited Western media claims that Soviet forces could seize Iranianand Tehran before the US could take effective counteraction. (U)
The Chinese haveew ambassador to Tehran and are likely to continue efforts to cultivate Iran while distancing themselves from VS sanctions. Beijing hasectoring tone in counseling* US restraint, while appealing to the US and Iran toeaceful settlement. (U)
IRAQ: Crackdown on Shia Opposition
The government iaampaign to suppress Shia Muslim dissidents, uko are being encouraged by Iranian civilian and religious leaders.
Both antiregime violence and Baathiat efforta to repress it have increased since the assassination attemptenior Iraqi officialpril. Antigovernment incidents have occurred in Baghdad and in theShia southern part of the country, including the religious centera at Karbala and An Najaf.
The government announced last week that any Iraqi associated with the Da'wa Party, an extremist Shia organization, will be executed. Baghdad claims tho group has ties with Iran, Iraqi Kurdish rebels, and Communists and says that it has seizedarms andbelonging to the organization.
The reputed head of the party, Ayatollah Baqr Sadr, has been under house arrest sinco laat June but may recently have been movedrison in Baghdad. Rumors circulated this week that he had been executed. Sadr's death at the hands of the Iraqi regime would hand Shia activists and their Iranian backers an emotional issue around which they could rally support and could set off the .intiregime outburst in Iraq that Iranian leadera have been calling for.
Tee figeree
Original document.
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