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SITUATION REPORT
IRAN
The Iranian left has beenerioue setback in the university olaehee this week.
Tho situation in Tehran was quieter yesterday after the leftist Fedayeen withdrew from the campuses.under pressure from extremist Muslim groups. In most other cities, calm apparently also prevailed. Tehran Radio reports, however, that there has been serious fighting at the university in Gilanraditional stronghold of leftist influence, and in Ahvaz and Zahedan.
Although the left has been damaged by the attacks, it probably retains its arms and organizational apparatus and may be able gradually to filter back to'the campuses. The leftists also can continue to operate effectively underground.
The government did not initiato the purge of the left and has so far Bhown no inclination to ban the left's activities off the campus. The Fedayeen, however, have been concentrating their activities among tho minorities for some time and may well now choose toore open and violent antiregime lino. The pro-Soviet Tudeh Party has notajor force in the universities and probably will continue to support Ayatollah Khomeini publicly while trying to increase its influence.
The impetus for the attack on the left came from
soveral extremist Muslim groups asaociated with the
Islamic Republic Party.
nusum activists, manynem slfflpiy street
thugs, have justified the attack by pointing to Khomeini's now year's speech onarch that calledurge in tho universities.
The Islamic Republic Party has nowculturalnd President Bani-Sadr has endorsed it. He appears to have been caught off guard, and is trying to identify with the campaign against tho lef t.
Bani-Sadr denied in an interview broadcasthe considered resigning after his efforts to endcrisis failed.
Iran-Iraq
Khomeini's office in Tehran said yesterday that Iraqi Shia leader Ayatollah Baqr Sadr has been executed by the Baghdad regime. The office decreed three days of national mourning in Iran and called on the Iraqi armed forces to overthrow the Baathist government. Iranian media are claimingtrike is already under way in the Iraqi Shia holy city of An Najaf.
Iran-USSR
The supervisor of Iran's Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance announced yesterdayraft of an economic and industrial protocol with the USSR has been drawn up and will be aigned in Moscow. The protocol could include agreement on the expansion of the Esfahfln_ steel mill and other joint projects.
Top Secret
BRIEFS AND COMMENTS
EC-IRANi Decision on Sanctions
irsttags of the EC program on Iran is the reduction of Wat European and Iranian staffs in their respective embassies, and in anticipation of later economic meteuree, the EC Foreign Ministers yesterday reoomnended that no new export or servicebe signed with Iran.
The results reflect the West European belief that economic sanctions are more provocative and should be koptast resort. Although the Nine failed toan article of the Community treaty permitting the EC to take immediate trade actions, the ministers called on their national legislatures to adopt laws to carry out UN Security Council sanctions; this process will begin immediately.
These sanctions will be imposed unless there is "decisive progress leading to the release of the The target date for such action iaay, the date of another EC Foreign Ministers' session. While "decisive progress" was not defined, British Foreign Secretary Carrlngton Indicated he would not be satisfied merely by transferring control of the hostages from the militants to the Iranian Government. The West Germans presumably will deem yesterday's agreement sufficient to preclude the need for unilateral moves by Bonn.
We have yot to confirm press reports of an ECto discourage purchases of Iranian crude oil; no reference to the subject appeared in the public EC This step may be controversial since some of the EC countries reportedly have difficulty reconciling it with prior contractual obligations.
Original document.
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