RECENT SOVIET POLICY IN LATIN AMERICA

Created: 5/13/1980

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

MEMORANDUM

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SUBJECT: Recent Soviet Policy In Lntin America

TI till

1. The past several months havearked increase In Soviet activity related to Latin America. New Soviet initiatives have included:

intensified economic, technical and nucloar dealings with Argentina;

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the first formal high-level visit to Latin America! (in thisrazil) in many years;

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red-carpet treatmentajor Nicaraguanin Moscow;

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conclusion of several assistance agreements with Managua;

a reported decision to providethrough thirdleftists in El Savadorj,^

hosted the General- Secrotary of Jamaica's People's National

offered jet aircraft to Mexico;

offered military training to the newin Grenada. '

2. The intensified Soviet activity is partly the result of the deterioration of Soviet-American relations that has followed Afghanistan. Soviet policy in the Western Hemisphere has long been characterized by caution and respect fcr US influence in the region. Moscow has also been aware of Washington's sensitivity to the appearanceovietin its backyard. The current strain in US-Soviet ties, however, has meant that Moscow is no longer constrained by the need to placate Washington in order to protect surh detente equities such as grain trade* access to technology and SALT.

Thia memorandum waa prepared at the requeat of the HIO for Latin America, for background uee by the DCI. Tt uae prepared

byOffice of Politioal Analyeia, I

" 'and haa been coordinated Ultn

[arid SIO/LtT. vemwenxe may be directed to the Chief,

DERIVATIVE CL BY*

aivvi onay_^aQ0.

DEniVED

The US trade sanctions triggered by the Afghan invasion has also led to stepped up Soviet economic activity in Latinoscow has made substantial grain purchases from Brazilsince those countries said they would not join tha US sponsored boycott campaign.

Soviet interest in the area has also been stimulated bv Moscow's perception of favorable political trends.

Soviet Foreignfor example, bailed

attention to what it saw as an interest in many Latinin developing independent policies and ofdecreased reliance on the US. This has led towillingness to deal with the USSR. Moscowembassies in the region to develop initiatives totrend. The Soviets are also trying to exploitof some US policies, such as the US humanand restrictions on arms sales.

interest has also been quickened by whatas new revolutionary currents in certain1in Central America. In the wake ofSovietsew revolutionary situation developingSavadorossible pre-revolutionary situation The Soviets are moving to exploit andwith them by buildingupport base atEmbassy in Managua, urging their local Communistcatch up with the revolutionary movements andmilitary aid and financial assistance.

6. Despite this heightened Soviet interest, some constraints on Soviet activity are likely to remain:

Latin America is far from the USSR and not central as are Europe, the Middle East and South Asia to Soviet security concerns.

Moscow recognizes the US still hasinfluence in the region.

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The Soviets are unwilling to invest substantial economic assistance in the area and realize the Latins still prefer Weaterr ioods.

Finally, Moscow recognizes that its influence is dependent on potentially changeable political situations (Jamaicaase in point).

Although these factors are likely to temper Soviet interest in the region, it still seems likely that inhe US is going to face more competition in Latin America from the USSR than it did in the preceeding decade.

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Original document.

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