SOVIET EFFORTS TO DRAW WORLD ATTENTION AWAY FROM AFGHANISTAN

Created: 3/6/1980

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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Mr. Fritz Ermarth

National Security Council Staff

Soviet Efforte to Draw World Attention away from Afghanistan

At present Moscow is playing on three major themes to divert world attention from Afghanistan's plight and to refocua that attention on Issues that it hopes tho rest of the world willigher priority.

concerning guaranteed access Middle Eastern oil;

attacks on the DS intended to blame tho deterioration of the international situation on American policies coupled with freshof interest in preserving detente; and

tatements on possible conditions for Sovir' withdrawal from Afghanistan.

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These efforts serve Moscow's objectives of undermining US efforts to coordinate international condemnation of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and of intensifying frictionsthe US and its allies.

On the question of access to Middle Eastern oil. onebruary TASSommentary by Nikolay Portugalov which condemned alleged US efforts topretext for military action" in the Middle East and which indirectly asserted the Soviet need of and right to access to Middle Eastern oil. Portugalov, moreover, suggested that the agenda

These preliminary observations wore prepared byooneultatton with other membere of tha of Politioal Analyeie. -Due to time

constraints tC Wale not coordinated elsewhere.

of an all-European conference on energy, first proposed by Brozhnevnclude "problems of tho sficurity of oil communications and of equal commercial access to oil sources of the Persian Gulf region.-

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This hcs been followed upeference in an article in Pravdaarch by Georgy Arbatov, head of tho Institute for tho USA and Canada, to the need for "broad international cooperation toolution to the world energy problem. Also,arch the Polish newspaper Zilnlerz Wilnosci claimed that Portugalov's idea would "make for harmonizing the interests of all buyers of oil" from the Middle East.tho Polish newspaper and Arbatov offered their ideas

tlivaX^adfforts to extend its hegemony in the Middle East. ;

Moscow is clearly attempting to play on Western European and Japanese economic concerns in order to createommunity of interests in the Persian Gulf into imputed US aggressiveness and greed. Moscow has claimed that US policy in the Middle East may well lead to military action and has raised the specter of the destruction of the Persian Gulf oil fieldsesult of this action. In entering its own claim to sharing in access to Persian Gulf oil, Moscow has attempted to mobilize tho concerns of the Western European countries and Japan over their economic well being in order to obtain their sanction of this claim ana, if possible, to create conflicts between them and the United Statos. f

Those commentaries also are intended to influence the conservative Arab oil producers. Tho Soviets hope to expand relations, particularly their commercial dealings, with these countries and to gain increased access to the energy resources of the area. Moscow's use of force in Afghanistan has heighten* Arab anxiety about tho projection of Soviet power and the possibilityonfrontation in tho Gulf. Tho Portugalov articles implied throat that Soviet interests in the Gulfbe ignored is meant to play to Arab, as well as West European, concerns. I" 1

, While the Soviets are maintaining that tho expansionS military presence in the Gulf poses the real threat to the region's stability, their current line may insteadtho fears of Gulf oil producers about Moscow's designs in the region. It makes clear Moscow's intention to further insinuate itself into Gulf affairs and repoats an historicalto the Gulfwhich outside powers dictate on Gulf security matters. But Gulf

leaders who both fear Soviet encroachment and diubL US ability to help them may follow the example of Kuwait and seek an accommodation with the USSR. Last weekend the Kuwaiti oil ministerell oil to the USSR should tho latterl

These efforts are consistent with Soviet attempts since the invasion of Afghanistan to create disagreements between the US and its allies over how to respond to tho Afghan invasion. In portraying itself as willing to discuss equal rights to Middle East oil reserves, Mobcow is appealing to those elements in the industralized world who are prepared to write off Afghanistan in order to protect their access to energy sources. The Soviets probably reason that few will be token in by this ploy, but their calculations probably alao include an assumption that many Weat Europeans and Japanese will conclude that they cannot afford not to discus; an issue that is vital to their national interests.1

In appealing to the economic self interest ofMoscow has attempted to convince them thatStates is attempting to return the world todays of the Cold War. Soviet propaganda hasprospect of Wrold War III resulting from DS actionsthe Soviets have toldthat the

bs iaoverboard" all the areas ofdetente had opened up. Moscow, moreover, hasBonn not to follow the US lead in boycottinggases and Grooryko hasaccused tha West

Germans, by siding with the US, of endangering detente.

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In addition, Moscow has placed considerable emphasis on the need to preserve detente in Europe. This hasajor propaganda theme in recent weeks and Moscow has acted to press the Europeans to maintain as much of their economic relations as possible with the East. Moscow has also publicly stated its interest in the Madrid follow-on mooting of CSCE signatories as well as its interestonference on military detente in Europe. At the end of February, TASSurther withdrawal of Soviet troops from East Germany in fulfillment of Brezhnev's pledgectober.

Meanwhile the Soviets havo attacked American policyorldwide basis and have blamed the United States for the current increase in international tendons. In itsthe Soviet Union has sought to de onstrate that the United States has consciously attempted to undermine detente oince the, that the US is attempting to regain superiority over the Soviet Union, and that the'US intends to use its enhanced military strength co extend its domination over broad areas of the world.

In ita efforts to undermine confidence in the US,Union has broadly cttacked thehypocrite pure and simple" and claiming that histhat of "antagonism and confrontation." Clearlythe President, moreover, Soviet propagandists have"certain unbalanced politicians in Washington." that.the President's "adventurist" foreigndirected at "undorminingoreover, theattempted to demonstrate that the US is bent onrest of the world into an ora of confrontationtensions. This policy, in turn, is attributedPresident's determination to bo reelected

a nolement 1ft the soviet errors, to ciouu

asked what the

Afghan issue has been tho manipulation of the question of the conditionsoviet withdrawal. In mid-February, the

Soviet ambassador tc

CS reactionoviet withdrawal in returnromise by all parties not to interfere in Afghanistan. Onebruary the shadowy Victor Louia had an article published in tho London Evening News implying Soviet acceptance of British Foreign Minister Lord Carring-ton's neutralization proposal. I

Authoritative Soviet statements, however, suggest that Moscow is net yet prepared to entertain concrete proposals on this matter and that it sooks broad and binding "guarantees" from the US before it will even begin to withdraw. Soviet propaganda has rejected the notion of neutralization pointing out that it would mean the end of the "April revolution" in Afghanistan. Also, while in India, Gromyko refused to respond to Indira Ghandl's efforts to raise the issue of withdrawal and neutralization, p (

At this time, at least, there are no formal Sovieton this issue and there is nothing on the public record to suggest that Moscow is seriously seeking toits withdrawal from Afghanistan and the neutralization of that country. Rather, it appears that for the present Moscow is content to allow speculation to continue concerning its willingness toeutral Afghanistan aa port of its broader effort to distract the world from its invasion and to weaken support for US sanctions against the Soviet

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Many of these themes were developed or at least touched on by Brezhnev in hisanuary Pravda interview and in hisobruary election speech. The latter in particularoviet effort to put asace as possible .on the invasion of Afghanistan and to return to the offensive against the US by playing on international hopes for afor Soviet withdrawal and by attempting to blame the United States for the downturn of detente. Brezhnev's spoech alsoeference to US concerns over oil supply routes and provided tlie basis for Portugalov'ssuggestion concerning adeal with the question of access to Persian Gulf oil.

These themes appear to represent the beginningsroad Soviet effort to neutralize US policies and to regain the diplomatic initiative. Moscow appears to havethe depth of the international reaction which would follow its invasion of Afghanistan and did not engageroad propaganda campaign in advance to justify its actions. The USSR ia now attempting to make up lost ground and appears to calculate that it will be able to uncover andUS vulnerabilities in the coming weeks.

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