Top Secret RUfF^UMBRA
PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN: ,The Refugee Problem
APPROVED FOR RELEASE DATE:l : !
of refugees reac the refuqees and
|the number
ilion Pakistan would be unable to cope irtth htreakdown in law and order. The only
to stem the flow woe some kind
ticn with the Soviets.
for]rebels in Afghanistan by substantial numbers of Afghan refugees in the border zones of Pakistan could provoke retaliatory, action by Soviet forces. The Afghanimale refugees who reenter Afghanistan from Pakistan to defend their tribal homelands return periodically to Pakistani territory to visit their families, to acquire arms and ammunition, and to seek medical treatment. They are included in the "foreign elements" that the Afghan Government and Soviet spokesmen claim are:responsible for the widespread resistance' in Afghanistan. I
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Even' if it were so inclined, the Pakistanicould not prevent! the movement of small groups of people across the border, which cuts through mountainous terrain ;in tribal territory over which government fprcea have never exercised more than limited control.
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The Afghan Government and the Soviets so far have been restrainedheir.reactions to refugee cross-border activities.Last fall the Afghanprobably at the urging of Sovietto alleviate' the refugee problem byrace period during which there would be no reprisals against returning refugees.'
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Although the period was extended, few refugeea offer. 4VJ
the near futurethey would forfeit their rights in Afghanistan. ^
The Soviets.presently are trying to seal the Pakistani-Afghan border from the Afghan side, but their efforts are unlikely to succeed. As time goes on, the Soviets may be tempted to launch air or ground attacks against rebel sanctuaries in Pakistan. The rugged terrain in the border zone would not preclude small cross-border raids by Soviet ground units, although mechanized equipment would Derestricted to three or four major crossing points.
Retaliation Danger Zones
The spring offensive by Afghan and Soviet military forces in the Konar Valley in eastern Afghanistan, which began in early March, increased the flow of refugees into Pakistan across the section of the border north of thess. The Soviets have expanded their anti-guerrilla operations into the provinces south of the Kabul River Valley, making the Parachinar area of the Kurram Valley the primary danger zone. The Kurram Valleyraditiona^invaslon route into Pakistan from Afghanistan.
The Refugees
By current estimates morefghanare located on the Pakistani side ol the border. Most are Afghan Pushtun tribesmen taking refuge among their fellow Pushtun tribesmen who populate Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province. Fewerre in Baluchistan. These rural Afghan Pushtuns, with their warrior traditions and conservative Islamic outlook, are among the most active opponents of Communist rule. The number will grow as refugees displaced by the current military operations make their way tol
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There are nowoncentrations of refugees thatroad sense can be considered camps. Of these,re in the North-West Frontier Province andre in Baluchistan. The size of these encampments ranges fromhe number fluctuates as refugees novo in and out.
No clear pattern ererges on the composition of the refugee groups. Children up toears oldhird to half the total number of refugees, and in most camps there are twice as many children as women. The ratio of mon to women is high in some campu, low in
others.
Cross-border tribal ties, combined with the tendency to travel in extended family units, have enabled the efugees to survive without much government support. The need, however, for food, shelter, and sanitation systems is great. Most refugees eventually register withagencies in order to establish eligibility for relief supplies, including UN aid administered by the Pakistani Government.
Outlook
Military activity in the borderlands has intensified and is expected to accelerate. To avoid provoking the Soviets, the Pakistanis may already have tried to move the refugees into camps away from the border. This would also facilitate distribution of relief supplies, allow better control over the movement of refugees in theareas, and reduce the tension that is sure to arise between the refugees and the local population overand water rights and other economically related; The refugees, however, haveeluctance to leave the border area near their homelands and may resist the government's efforts to relocate them.
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Original document.
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