NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Created: 8/15/1980

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

conlontn

situation report

iran

briefs and comments

iran: Impact of Sanctions

cuba-us: Conciliatory Gestures

Syria: Vera Violence Likely

ussr-zimbabwe: Moscow arid

Surir.aae: Military

ttomania-eyypt: Peace Initiative 9

south korea: Trial of Kim Oae

saudiuwait; Freeze on

abu Dhabi: Oil

ussr: Vr.Vil Facility in Kuril

kampuchea: Sihanouk 'a

special analysis

ethiopia: The Keaclution Stagnates12

tun firrrau-

u niiy.ua i

IRAK

SITUATION REPORT

Ihtmnfted puolta attacks on the VSSft by Tehran reflectconviction that the Soviets are interfering in Iran'saffaire ar. well as in Foreign Minister Ghotbzadeh'sin ihc domestic power struggle.

Tehran radio yesterdayetter fro.-Gnotbzadeh to Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko in whichzadeh responded to an earlier Soviet memorandum" concern about the deterioration intics. He accused the Soviets of providingfl^tvirj,terial and intelligence aid to the Kurds and the Tudeh Party and of using Soviet diplomats "to contact tne enemies of the Islamic revolution." He again urged the Soviets to withdraw from Afghanistan, reduce thoir

tafr in Tehran and allow Iran tn establish a

Ghotbzadth's statements follow earlier criticisms of the Soviets by Ayatollah Khomeini and

sacor to the USSR Mokri.

in Dushanbe.

policies defended

US "imperialism."

The Iranians have long been convinced that theare providing aid to the Kurds, and Tehran nay have discovered what it believes is new evidence ofinvolvement. otbzadeh--whose position has been undercut by thehopes that by up Khomeini'soviet attacks, he will restore his revolutionary credentials and receive some political position in the new government.

--continued Trin Wint

Soviets have continued to criticize Ghotbzadeh. broadcast on Monday by the Soviet-sponsored National Voice of Iran charged that

BRIEFS AND COMMENTS

IRAN: Impact of Sanctions

Allied agnations are having the mast impact on Iran's import

The volume of goods reaching Iran appears to bopresanotion levels but the difficulties ofup purchases have raised Iran's cost of doing business by at leastercent. Despite unenthusiastic support for sanctions in the EC, Japan, and Canada, direct ox-ports by the allies to Iran fell offompared with previous months.

none ot the allies has officially taken steps to Inhibit transshipments, although in theory they are not allowed under sanctions.

Two ma^or transshipment centers, Austria and are likely to attempt to persuade companies to limit transshipments sinco both countries indicated when sanctions were first imposed that they would not permit themselves to become major channels for embargoed trade. Such measures, however, are unlikely to reduce substan-k eqal tcade flows. Meanwhile, countries not oouna DyChina and South Koreaare rushing o pick up whatever business they can.

decl*ne ln tradeune should only beginIran this month because of shipping leaddisruption will be hittingime that thoimproving food supplies. Although 'J'1 ?para PartS 3nd iaw?J ' lV "Se in delive^cs inprevent any major problems.

CUBA-US: Conciliatory Gestures

President Castro appears to beesire toonfrontation vitk Washington and probably remains interested in engaging comprehensive bilauiral talks.

uuuan .minorities nave been cooperative in their ol 'JS iiireivift -p

Cuban authorities also have afforded favorableto the moreormer political prisoners and their families who have left the US Interests Section in Havana during the past week. Most were processed quickly, given letters advising local officials not to harass them, and promised that they would be leaving the country soon.

Castro could send additional signals to the US by agreeing to release other US citizens from Cuban jails, satisfying US requests for further information relating to the recent hijackings, and restricting tho flow of

from Marlel harbor,

u

SYRIA: More Violence Likely

Violent attacks by Muslim Brotherhood extremists seeking toPresident Assad'e minority Alawiteay inereaes that the Muslim holy month of Ramadan has ended, f

recent dacline in opposition activity may have been duo more to religious observances associated with Ramadan than to the brutal security crackdown launched immediately after the nearly successful assassination attempt against Assad in late June. Hardcore extremists, nevertheless, continued to attack military and security patrols in the northern city of Aleppo, where the anti-regime movement has been strongest, and to commit isolated acts of terrorism in Damascus and other cities.

The government has extended tougust its program exempting Muslim Brotherhood members from the death penalty prescribedecent law if they resign from thebut this move is unlikely to entice hardcore extremists. The program appears to have been onlysuccessful

1""

A key test of the government's control over domestic unrest will be whether it can continue to keep Damascus from experiencing the extensive violence that has erupted in cities in the north. As long as Assad controls thea prerequisite for rulingand retains the loyalty of tho military, his principal near-term threat will be another assanoination attempt.

ussr-zimbabwe: moscow and kugabe

tie*hurry t0 eeta*>lishL ; in an* case' he ^ld not do so unless

he werethe soviets would not use their

ties with zapuin zimbabweanriaira.

oviets probably see their relationship with hkomo as one of their few levers on mugabe thev aro

COn5tnue to hoidhe thrlat of supporting nkomo as an alternative to the new regime until thev fl?p

Moscow is usingionship with the Zimbabwea tfiumargaining tool in its efforts toMugabe to establish diplomatic relations. i

SUBIKAKS: Military Takeover

The militant assumption of emergency pevera in Surinaaetoonsolidation of federate forcee.

Prime Ministerivilian, haspresident, but Army Commander Daysi BouterseCme^ed as the strongman, citingboth left and right and suggesting outside Bouterse indicates the military willcorruption and economic stagnation.

an resistedblandishments,was accusing Havana of intervpnt-i

unHpi^'lTfr63the abrupt miiitary novo are stmtly because the government hasff? Jand closed the borders. Under nconstitution is suspended, a

uiuizens are endancerec a

that no

is anticipated.

ROMANIA-EGYPT: Peace Initiative

oint statement issuedeetingbetween President Ceausescu and Egyptian Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Ghali, the two parties stressed the importance of 'looking into the possibility ofan international conference" toomprehensive settlement the Arab-Israeli dispute. President Sadat himself ban not yet publicly endorsed this concept, but lay view this signal of interest in Romania's peuce initiativeay of putting further pressure on Israel and of maintaining some notion in tho settlement process during the hiatus in the autonomy talks. Ceaunescu will attempt to use the statement to drum up further support for his peace conference proposal during his visit to Jordan noxt week.

SOUTH KOREA: Trial of Kin Dae Jung

Dissident leador Kim Dae Jung was formally charged with subversion yesterday as his court-martial got undor way. Kim's conviction is virtually assured, butcontinues on his ultimate fate. Tho military judges probably willeath sentence, which may ho commuted to life imprisonment. Kim's supporters have been unsuccessful inawyer for hin, and ho reluctantly has accepted counsel appointed by tho court. Friends, relatives,imited number of journalists and foreign diplomats--but no representatives ofhuman and legal rightsbe permitted to attend what couldengthy trial

Hrrir-t

SAUDIUWAIT: Freeze on Loans

Moves lasL month by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to block attendance by representatives of the Palestine Liberation Organization at their annual meeting may have an adverse impact on Arab funding of the organizations. Proposed loans2 million by Saudi Arabiaillion byunderwrittenuwaiti investment company--were frozen in response to the moves. The curtailment of Arab loans could affect new World Bank programs for energy development andadjustment in developing countries. In the par.t. Islamic states had provided less thanercent of Bank borrowings. IMF officials also may have difficulty durinq

ABU DIIADI: Oil Production

-vhu Dhabi has cut oil production

u9'JSt to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the united Arab Emratos in raising funds to assistcountries with acute balance-of-payments problems Arab countries were major contributors to similar IMF programs4

Although conser

vation oDjectives were officially cited as thetne cutback, the size and timing of thewere dictated by technical problems attwo largest onshore fields that supply aboutof production.

Government concern for conservation,an important factor in determiningOtaiba recently stated that the

iratcs wil* Produce only the amount of oil needed to fund its continued development. Previous government statements place this level atillion

perJdfli" Any future production cutbacks probably

will be gradual.

lb0

USSR: Hava; Facility in Kuril Islands

?he Soviet Navy hasmall installation

Simushir Island In the Kuril

chain.

KAMPUCHEA: Sihanouk's Plans

Sihanouk

|plans no further politicalKampuchea andreconciled to

indefinite Vietnamese he He still refuses to cooperate with Pol Pot and advocates an "empty seat" formula for Kampuchean representation in the UN. Sihanouk apparently has concluded that he has no leverage at this point, but he still seems to believe that the Vietnamese ultimately nay be forced to enter political discussions ine willole.

Ton fin-rl

SPECIAL ANALYSIS

ETHIOPIA: The Revolution Stagnates

Tne miliary regime in Addis Ababa continues io be beset by economic and militaryef. have hampered the vrogrese of ite BGataliat revolution. Although some of the regime's policies initially were well received, unfulfilled expectations and the rul-zng military council's heavyhanded tactics have eroded popularrt. iionetheltse. Chairman ftengietu has vui-ged or co-opted his major opponents and remains firmly in control with the support of

the military.

Almost six years ago, Ethiopia's militarytc the backwardness and excesses of theto transform Ethiopia intostatear-reaching, highly popularprogram and the nationalization of Since the ond of the war with Somalia inmilitary council has intensified these efforts, have yet to produce the desired results.

The Shortage of trained administrators andhaserious drawback to the regime'scarry out its programs. Political purges, thethe military, and other disruptions haveshortageskilled personnel,umber ofposts within the civilian sector are filled

The initial public enthusiasm for the regime's plans has been undermined by the imposition of increasingly unpalatable measures. Last year's phasedcampaign, which began taking newly acquired land away from peasants and placingnder the ccntrol of the state, was particularly unpopular. The government also has run into problems in urban areas, whereis growing over the leadership's failure to live up to its proir.isos and its continuous demands for "free labor."

-LCI

n august lyxu

Shortages of consumer goodspercentrate also have contributed to the grumbling. Within theumber of senior and middle-level bureaucrats are disillusioned over the regime's emphasisocialist system despite its many failures.

Western aid has declined and economic assistance from Communist countrios has not mot Ethiopian Ethiopia's distrust of tho US and of the West in general has made it reluctant to takeas compensation for nationalized property or allowing aof privatethat would encourage the ln-troduction of much needed capital and technology.

Political Trends

Despite the influential role of the USSR and Cuba in Ethiopiaengistu remainsationalist. His leadership has not heen seriously challengedlthough he has had to balance off competing factions. [

The consolidation of Mengistu's power has beenin the government's policies. Collectivization, for example, may allow the regime to break the power of independent peasant associations, thus reducing their control over production and distribution.

The program toational workers'for over five yoars, is also tied to theefforts to retain power. The commissiondeveloping the party is headed by Mengistu, andpositions are held by military personnelthe executive body of the military council.

Military Distractions

The regime's efforts toew societybeing interrupted by insurrection in ninecounty'srovinces* These include majorin the ogadan, and in Eritrea and Tigreless troublesome guerrilla activity in Gondar,Wolie Provinces. Efforts to contain thesehavft required the maintenance of anroops, draining Ethiopia's economicresources.

The government, oncession to onegroup would only encourageontinues to pursue military solutions. It shows no inclination to develop political programs to endghting

Addis Ababa stands firm on its program of6 that calls for liraitAd autonomy for ethnic minorities, and Kengistu appears toentralized state with only token self-government in the provinces. I

TirrcrgTtrprrs-^grva msusiiCiertt weight toever the past nine months or so,the continuing dialogue between Mer.gistu and

Sudanese President

ciose to ottering

a aegree ot autonomy to Eritreaegion. This offer would be perceived by Eritreans as an improvement Over$ offer of limited autonomy to each ethnicin the province. Whether such an offer would lead to

successful nccjotiati

remains to be seen. |

I*0

Outlook

Despite the government's problems and thopopular support, Mengistu and his militaryno immediate threat. The USSR and Cuba havein Ethiopia and probably would try tothe regime's overthrow.

In addition, Ethiopia's leaders have eliminated or neutralized radical and conservative opposition groups dedicated to overthrowing the military regime. i

u migusi; ivflU

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