Created: 8/12/1980

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Brictn and OdMBonU

urope: or Madrid Wonthina Mlqcriai Oil Scandal Findings . . Fonoiblc Aircraft Deal

Zdptbia-Zaire: ecraer Dispute


USSR-Ethiop'-*: Vuhlak Island Agrement TurXuyt Call fcr Earlu

Special AnalyiiA

Irani The I'rinc Ministertha Hovtaq.

briefs and comments

ussr-europe: preparing for madrid

for-* cooperative mage for the ConjtxynLy on Siauny, and Cooperation ir. Europe review

Zr^LTnnTT- f ^'ZMpcme,e ai*awuent conference on dioarvixnmit in Europe.

t?uiy with'of csce to theo- detente and portrayed the ussr as brezhnev and other soviet

ta balance sheet ofnmfntsulgraue

i:nar pre-madridost keep the eurooean substantiveasirri f


andimited io in the hope it will llive even if accord on

nly the mandate cor syh

s* aver"ia scope ?or a

ussr may t* patcd western critic conference./


tht- heat wi t'l moderate courtn-aia'riticism on afghanistan and human rights interest o:uropean disarmament conference.

thought this approach would

e pressure on the west europeans to echo us etiticism so :ar, however, the soviets have been tell-

hat w'u1 answer

IJ All^Usl I'/SH

nigeria: oil scandal findings

ffort* to transfer blame for oil revenue shortfallsjoreign oil sompanies appear toeen accepted,he general public.

continued confidence in president shagari'son public acceptance of tho explanation forloss which tho nigerian press surfaced lastthe loss occurred under the last militaryreports have speculated that shagari might beup ior tho ex-military rulers who somemaintain favored his candidacy.

ARGENTINA-IRAQ: Possible Aircraft Deal

attaok'ail^hB Wrohase of an Argentine-built Ught-

Huenos Aires

to sell ioar.

has conducted an aggressive sales campaign7

5le domestically produced military aircraft, itania and Thailand have piaced orders thus

before aircraft.

is investigating other Western iccidingultirole light-strike

The Irc.qis have depended until nowo fill the role of advanced trainer and light. tack aircraft in Kurdistan, f

gotiations tor the sale ot bOs to Iraqcompletion as part of increasingcooperation.



ZAMBIA-ZAIRE: Border Dispute

A longstanding dispute between Zambia and Zairetretch of their common border between Lnkos Mworu and Tanganyika isp. Last month. President Kaunda visited tho arearecently discovered to be rich into underscore Zambia's domandseturn to the boundary determined0 by ansigned between Great Sri tain and the Congo Free Sfcato (now Zaire). 1

USSR: Lower Grain Prospects

Hot, dry weather during July has loweredin some grain areas in the USSR. He nowSoviet grain output atillionlow end of our previous forecast If this projection holds, the harvestillion tons below the target fortillarked recovery fromiiij.on-ton crop, our estimate of totalnow standsillion Lons, compared torangeillion tons.

There hanradual deterioration induring the past several weeks In sevoralgrain growing areas, including the northand the western Urals. I

r me pornntiai yiein re-

pring grains in this atra could be as high asercent. Because they were nearly ripo, however,winter grains generally suffered little or no damage.

USSB-ETHIOPIA: Dahlax Island Agreement

Moscow and Addis Ababa apparently have de facto control that the Soviets have had overnaval facility on DahUk Island. |

The present facility at Dahlak consistsloatingier,ew support buildings. The Soviets have been using Dahlak imcc

TURKEY: Call for Early Elections

The Justice Party parliamentary group isinscribeotion for early nationalarly next week. The motionif Prime MlnlSlur Deniirol's informalgo along) National Salvation Party however, is likoly toard bargainsupport. Domirol hopes elections betweenDecember will return him to powerlearand thus break the six-month-old political Opposition loader Ecevitrlyhis disunited party would suffer defeats. probably will defer parliament's considerationsecurity bills backed by the military to it will also further delay the electionpermanent president.

HAM; The Prime Minister and the Hostages

The selection of Mohamad Ali Rajai as Iran's newiming point in the power struggle in Tehran and in the hostage crisis. The position of the hardliner clerics has been furtherx!*rcrare newtiiiinst ihe US. I-

ftajai's confirmation yesterday in thecomes after: almost eight months ofmaneuvering between Presidenti'.. h!.i has reduced Hoim-

Sadr to little moroigurehead. The President's influence will be even further eroded once Rajai names

ence, but hisin-. 1 i

fundamentalists .

Rfljaitrong supporter of the Islamic cultural revolution, and he noems certain to call for more purges ot the government and military. Me has no Westernami apparently has never traveled outside of the Middle East. Hy temperament and training, heundamentalist whose views probably ars very close to Ayato;lah Khomeini's

It is too early to tell how Rajai will fit into thu power struggle. DeKcshti probably hopes that Hajai will simply choose to followline on all key issues, j

If Rajai is personally ambitious, however, he may try to establish his ownno. Nevcithclews, Beheshti's dominant position in the Islamic Republic Party will constrain Rajai from becoming too independent. I

Although Bchoshtitrong position in the legislature and heads the judiciary, he still has not consolidated his position. The Islamic Republic Party is far from monolithic and could witness more infighting nowi-Sadr has been so weakened,

Deheshti has numerous enemies in the Shia clergy and itf widely rumored to be personally corrupt. His opponents -ould choose to us a rcport.n ofs* tiea t< SAVAK--which wc believe arc accurate-^against him,

BeheshLi also must be wary of Khomeini, who canin the government as he sees fit. Khomeini has traditionally preferred that none of his lieutenants gain tooence, and lie may choose to reduce Beheshti1 power.

Implications for the Hostages

Choosing the cabinet could take several weeks if the Assembly decides to investigate closely each minister's revolutionary qualifications, once the cabinet is in place, the Assembly is supposed to begin its debate on the fate of the hostages. |

After lengthy deliberations, the Assembly probably will decide to put at least some of the hostages on trial. Some legislators evidently have alreadyilletailed procedure for trying them;

Hostage trials would allow the legislators totheir own revolutionary credentials and provide the Iranians with a forum for presenting to the world their case against the US. Most polls of the members

;hat have appeared in the Tehran press show stronq support for some kind of trials.



If trials begin, we expect the hardlinerstho proceedings and exploit them foragainst the US and against Iranianalleged "spies' among the hostages probably willguilty and sentenced to long prison terns. "innocent- hostages nay be released, thelikely to want to hold on to atewas insurance that the US will not Iran.

Original document.

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