NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Created: 8/11/1980

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CIA LATE ITF.H

CHILE: Pinochet Announces Referendum

Chilean President Auqusto Pinochet announced last nightonstitutional referendum will be held oneptember. The constitution, which ia likely to be approved, will extend Pinochet's one-nan ruin for eight more years. It will preclude free elections for the presidency The timing of the announcement reflects Pinochet's need to reassert hi* authorityime of increasing terrorist violence front both right and left. The terms of the proposed constitution were immediately denounced as farcical by civilian opposition political parties. I

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USSR-Afghanistan 1

2

Briefs ond Comments

Romania: Sou Middle East Peace 3

Argentina: Support of Qoliliian 4

Zimbabwe: Status of Military 7

USSR: Qiaamattient Iccuea 8

Ethiopia: aden 9

Mozaniiiquo: Antiguarrilla

Special Analysis;

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1 RAN

Ayatoilah Khomeini strongly criticised the USSR again Saturday peech to representatives of liberation movements" currently meeting in Tehran. Khomeini labeled thabig satanic power" for seeking to "suffocate Afghanistan" and for selling arms to Iraq for use against Tran. His comments could set the stage ior reducing lean's relations with Moscow

Tehran radio, in both domestic and Arabic*language broadcasts yesterday, asserted that Shia communities in eastern Saudi Arabia had deironst rated Friday in support of Ayatoilaherusalem Day* remarks. It claimed that many of thosepeople were attacked and jailed in "the prittons of the Saudiranian media claim that lilmilar demonstrations aluo occurred in Bahrain on Friday.

Education Minister Rajai will likely become Iran's prime minister -oday, as the Islamic Assembly is scheduled to vote on his nomination as forwarded by President Bani-Sadr. Once coniirmea, his first task will be toew cabinet, I

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BRIEFS AND COMMENTS

RaanitiK Pree-fac'itip beew I'lta-rawhen he tfavats totfti.ila East next week, but hawillr:'ovt frcr. the region's rvxjor

ROMANIAi New Middle Rast Peace Initiative

ICMUIMCU'

whoJordan !roW i; lli ig August and cay also stop in Syria andbeen trying to line up supporteneral Middle East peace conference to convene under Romanian sponsorship next year. Ccausescu hasonference, attended by all interested including the Palestine Liberation Organization, tho USSR, and the US, tocomprehensivelthough Ceausescu's proposal has in the past generated

in teres tl-1 1

ubt rumen.

is enthusiastic the

conference.

major obstacles to the Ronenian initiative would appear to coroo r'tom :srnel--which has already rebuffed similar Romaniannd from hardline states like Libya and Iraq, which oppose any negotiations with Israel. Ccausescu prob-ibly is motivated loss by an expectation of success than by the bt-noflts he anticipates will accrue to Romania just from making the effort. He may hope that Romania's stature in the Arab world will rise, thus as-nuring greater access to Middle East oil, and reinforcing hisre ign policy line."

ARGENTINA:

of Bolivian Junta

ear determined to prop up thein ttolivut, even niiz< cf jcopcrdistK? recentin rcUtiene uith i'te US.

President Vidcla has for tho first time publicly expressed sympathy for tho new ruling group led by General Garcia Meza and implied that Argentina would provide food

aid and financial credits. Thesis nra the latest in a

lienor, ot supportive actions tak.rgentines! |

The Argentines

/insist that their own national security

interests wore directly threatenedeft-leaning

Bolivia mighL haveafohavon for Argentine Thoro in no evidence to nopportlaim

but it is consistent with Argentine nppielicnnlons of

crccpinr. iinmrnuniui penetration cf the Vicntcrn hemisphere.

Argentina's recognition of the new regime onollowed by the postponementisitking USvisitby the military governmentontinuationbilateral meetings begun last January tobettor understanding and cooperation.

Although ProHidnnt VideLn may noersonal cmix-sary to Washington to discuss the Bolivian problem, there is little reason to expect the Argentines to show Though there nay be iv.inor differences of opinion In the Argentine government hierarchy, those officers who count believe strongly that in Bolivia al present there is no civilian alternative toightwlnnj military Junta.

ZIMBABWE: Status of Military Amalgamation

Ihc process of combining elements of Me>babuc'e two guerrilla. forces and the former Rhodesia* Amu appears to be stalled. I

Current plans callour-brigade Army. Some battalions evidently will be little more than renamed Shodesian units, while others will comprise formerof the Zimbabwe African National Union and the Zimbabwe African People's Union. inglebattalion has br-cn formed to date

The new force may includef the more0 guerrillas under arras at the time of Former insurgents who are unfit or unwilling to servo are being demobilized. As of early July,

onlyuerrillas had returned to civilian life, leaving more0 ZANU and0

ZAPU personnel still at assombly point3.

The resignation of Army Connwnder-in-Chiefonly the latest ohstaclo to amalgamation. on the sire and composition of theommander cor.tinua to be hampered byand rivalries. Even such minor matters ascommon rules and regulations are complicated

The cooperation, support, and leadership ofpersonnel are essential, particularly interm. By late May, howevor, one-third of theofficers ond one-half of tho senior whiteofficers had already submitted Many of those still in uniform are notrhc prospects for the new Army.

USSR: Disarmament Issues Discussed

A tour d'horizon of Moscow'a armo control proposalsoviet Poref-gn 'Hmalcr lirox^ko aw! appearing in the mid-July inr.ur of the thoorft-iaat Journal of the CPSU, Kommunist, arit-icir.es the Vcfi! In ganaral <tvd tho US in particular for alleged piveraotinal'fon cith rcjaid to arms controlirmmfH.l

in excerpts ot rhe butt broadcast by Moscow three consecutive days beginning onugust,that "the leaders of NATO and tho US aboveattempting to chanqc the strategic balance toin order "to return the world to the dayspolitics." According to Gromyko, the west'sregarding Soviet military spending and theof imited Soviet military force" inmere pretense servingnr. rationaleaccelerated Western arms buildup.

In recounting the experience gained in disarmament talkn, Gromyko pointn out gloomily that "basically, nothing at all has been done to eliminate tho material means of war." Nevertheless, he continirces, "current agreements and treaties cut off some channels for the arms race, ban or limit individualnd hinder "an untestrainod aims race.'

Gromyko urges thoion of SALT Tl and chides the UK foe its postponement and the resultingol* SALT III talks. He cites US failure to ratify SALT II, thr US-Soviet treaty on Underground Nuclear Explosions for Peaceful Purposes, and the US-Soviet treaty on tint!ting underground nuclear tests as "facts" which "erode the crudibiJLty of tho USeliable partner."

In closing, Gromyko promises that the Soviet Union will continue to champion disarmament in the UN, but notes that because UJJ resolutions "are only In the nature of recomm^ndaS ions" Moscow favorsorum that could adoptffective decisions which could be really binding on all nations" and suggests thatorum couldarmament conference."

SPECIAL. ANALYSIS

fNTCKNATIONAL: Won-Prolifcration Treaty Review Conference

Wie ttecondto pcvieu tha Kcn-Prolifcrationiodtvj in ^ncva, vill produce mush conttrntion overlack of projww oncontrol and mBtvicHonaofmtatear ttOteQlQjtf m

Non-nuclear states will complain that thehaw not rnaJo serious efforts to halt the and in particular that the superpowersALT treaty allowing then to makecut* in their nuclear amenils. in this, theyrepeating demands made at the first conference Criticism of Washington for failing to II could occur, although rro.it states realise of the invasion of Afghanistan.

Nonaligncd countries probably will be moretheir criticism of the US, UK, and USSR for nota Comprehensive Test Dan Treaty. Mostbelieve the problematter ofnot of substance. Moscow has tried toon this issue by siding with nonaligncdtheirpposcd by the US andnegotiations.

Developing states have longuaranteenuclear powers will not use or threaten to useagainst them. They probably oppose thethe US that the final declaration oftep forward the individual promisesby the five nuclear powers.

Top Ge^I

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Nuclear Coitmnrce and Safeguards

* iw rw mm w

Developing nations will arguo that their right under the treaty to peaceful nuclear technology is being limited by tho restrictive policiessore nuclear suppliers. Tensions arc running high owr this issue because the mounting LOstn of dependence on imported oil make nuclearore attractivu alternative. Tho US and Canada will take moat of the heat becauue they have led the effort to tighten the rules governing nuclear trade. Sonc uupplicrs may side with the developing countries; several West European nations arc unhappy with US efforts to impose new conditions on nuclear cooperation agree-

y developing nations party to tho treaty have complained that supplier* impose more stringentagainst treaty signatories than against non-signatories and thereby add to the dangers of They also are chagrined that some suppliers sell nucloar technology under less rigorous safeguards to strengthen their political and commercial ties to some nonsignatorics. Some developing states may also insist that the conference guarantee preferential access totechnology to those nations willing to accept safeguards under the treatyL

Some devnlopinq nations will also raioo the issue of tho discriminatory character of the safeguards applied by tho International Atomic Energy Agency. Of the three nuclear powers party to the tmaty, the USSR is the rost vulnerable on that score becaunc it cdamantly refuses to place any nuclear facilities under safeguards. I

PreconfDfOftCG politicn

Political maneuvering has focused on the selectionresident. Support for the West'swedish diplomat who presided over the first conference and was instrumental in producing rhe final declaration, has eroded. She is being challenged by Iraqi official Kcttaneh, who was nominated by the Yugoslavs, Kettaneh

cont mund

sl i'jhu

lacks experience on proliferation issues, however, and his candidacy is especially troublesome because of his country's suspected ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons-Iraq probably would use the conference leadership postorum to defend thaature of its nuclear program and tc attack Israel for not adhering to the Non-Prolifcration Treaty.

The USSR and most Western states are unwilling to antagonize the developing nations by opposing Kottanoh, but tho controversy could sour the atmosphere. |

Outlook

With an inexperienced official like Kettanch asofficer, chances for a final declaration would not be good. Failure to reach consensuseclaration would be widely interpretedoss of confidence in the treaty. Signatories with reservations about tho treaty might be prompted to reconsider theirand some nonsignatoric* might be encouraged to push forward toward nuclear weapons. Despite contention over specific aspects of the treaty, most participants remain committed to tho treatyhole. The most likely outcomeland declaration similar to the

one in but the nonaligncd members probably will

issue separate, irorc strongly worded statements.

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