NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Created: 6/27/1980

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

VIETNAM-KAMPUCHEA-THAILAND

Fighting apparently diminished along the Thai-Kampuahean lordev yeeterdau, although sporadic artillery exchanges continued.

We have no indication at this time that theare planning to launch new attacks into Thailand,attacks cannot be ruled out.

Some Vietnamese troops apparently have taken up de-fensive positions on the Kampuchean aide of

couia engage in operations there without advance warning.

Inn flrrrfT

a June ivsu

USSR-AFGHANISTAN

Fighting continuee in mont of Afghanintan, with the Soviets no nearer to pacifying the country than they were eix monthe ago.

Insurgent activity is increasing in the northern region. In Samanganumber of clashes with government forces have been reported, including twoon the provincial capital on Sunday.

Kabul is quiet after the general strike last Herat, in turmoil for most of the past six months, is also fairly cai.ii, although some clashes are reported in the city. Qandahar, however, is near chaosf

Soviet statements

TASS Wednesday characterized President Carter'sabout transitional arrangements as "deliberatelynd Pvavda yesterday labeled them "an overt appeal to the enemies of Democratic Afghanistan to carry on nubversive actions." Neither Soviet article is an au-thoritative response to tho President's statement. F

An earlier Pravda article, almost certainly written before the President's statement in Belgrade, portrayed the US as isolated in its skopticism about Soviet troop withdrawals. The article, under the authoritative "A. Petrov" byline, alleged that the French and other Europeans accented the seriousness of the Soviet desireolitical settlement, while the US is unwilling to consider "the thought of transition" to such a

The article also reflected Moscow's concern about Iran's role in helping the insurgents. It is the third Praoda attack on Iran's involvement in Afghanistan in tho last two weeks and goes further than before in accusing at least "local Iranian authorities" of aiding the insurgents. I-

IRAN

Attacks on the left will intensify following Ayatollah Khomeini's denunciation of leftistspeech on Wednesday.

khomeini criticized the two largest leftist groupsfedayeen and mujahedin--although he did notby name. he accused them of disrupting theto an islamic republic and of fomenting troubleand kordestan. the fact that khomeinileftists again for theirn thewill hasten efforts to remove them.

the universities were closed indefinitely on 5onuno khomeiniculturalto define future university policies along eachers, students, and employeesbeen purged from tehran university forwith the shah's intelligence service.

in an apparent response to khomeini's remarks, the mujahedin headquarters in tehran was attacked yesterday.

iinb mu]aneo:in last night announced the closureoffices in iran until such time as their constitutional guarantees are respected. i

the pro-soviet tudeh party generally has not been included in the regime's crackdown on the left because of the tudeh's policy of supporting khomeini on all issues.

BRIEFS AND COMMENTS

ISRAEL: Coalition's Prospects

Prime Minister Begin appears likely torucial vote in the Knesset next week dcsjite recent defections from 'tis ruling coalition.

The opposition plans to test Begin's reducedat its narrowest margin since hisintroducing early nextotion calling for dissolution of the Knesset and new elections. Led by the Labor Party, the opposition hopes to exploit the recent defections of two Democratic Movement members of the Knesset and extensive unhappiness among independents and some coalition members over the economy and over Finance Minister Kurvitz's demands for drastic budaet cuts.

the government wins next week. Begin will face parliamentary tests until the Knesset adjourns at ol July. Begin can probably hold on even if he more defections Irom fringe coalition members, as the National Religious Party, his major coalition , supports him. Although some Religious Party meir-Ueve the party will suffer in the next election tays in the coalition, the party's Knesset members appear willing to support Begin.

no st c< uld be vernmei

o-confidence motion, it would ainly be several months before now elections Id. Begin would continue toaretaker ir. the interim.

Tim Sri-riTi

zi June ivao

BELGIUM: The TNF Issue

Belgian politicians confirm that the results of West German Chancellor Schmidt's trip to Moscow nextill heavilyBelgium's decision on ailowi.ie- theater nuclear weapons to be based in Belgium.

his

Both the Liberals, who support deployment, and the Socialists, whot, have told US officialsositive decision would be much easier and mi jht even come quickly if Schmidt returns without any sign that the Soviets are serious about limiting theater nuclear forces. This would make it harder for the Socialists to continue insisting on more consultations with the Warsaw Pact.

Limiting or dropping such consultations coulddecision as early as the end of Julyat the latest.

arn' however, that any sign from Schmidt that the Soviets are interestedeapons freeze would encourage opponents of deployment to press for further delay. The Flemish Socialists would still?ePloymenr- and hopeinimum tohe same deadline the Netherlands has sot for its decision. elay would make approval difficult, because the issue would once ;g'"be,comp entwined with controvcEsial Belgian domestic

CHINA-INDIA: Improving Relations

The visit of senior Indian External Affairs Ministry official Erie Gonsalvee to Beijing kae adaanaad Sino-Indian relations by pnxluei'ig several agrecxienls on bilateralormal invitation for yjrvign Minister huwj Hua to visit Delhi. p

Beijing hasigh priority on improving ties with India since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and has found New Delhi increasingly receptive to its Gonsalves' trip served to reopen the formal dialogue interrupted last year when China invaded at that time, the Indian Foreign Minister wasChina.

India's willingness not to allow the complex border dispute to block progress in ether areas has made closer tics possible.

emonstration of progress toward improving relations, tho two sides agreed toupris-ingly large number of delegations in the near future, ranging from science and technology to trade and culture. Beijing also issued new regulations that will allow India to conduct cross-border trade with Tibet.

LIBERIA: Growing Problems

Liberia's fragile stability is being strained by tensions within the leadership, disputes over foreign relations, and severe financial problems.

The People's Redemption Council is increasinglyits authority over civilian and military cabinet members, i

yropicnis Between tne council ana

UT

uor also appear to bo growing

rdavi

Liberia's reconciliation with its neighbors now seems to hinge on whether the Doe government can meet the demands made by the presidents of Guinea, Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast, and Togo that Monrovia take the lead in mending relations with France and Nigeria and release political prisoners. The resistance of some military leaders to these demands probably accounts for the postponement of the visit to Monrovia by the four presidents scheduled to take place yesterday; the meeting apparently has been rescheduled for today.

The military leaders, meanwhile, are continuing their search for arms and military training, and are exhibiting growing frustration with the lac*S response to their requests.

Economic officials are allcmplimj to negotiateillion in commercial bank loans hy mid-July to meet government debts and payrolls and to prevent the govern-

ment and tho National Dan* irom defaulting.

BOLIVIA: Election Outlook

Bolivians will participate on Sunday in the third general election in two years,ilitary takeover inediate postelection period is possible.

Former chief executives Hernan Siles Zuazo and Victor Paz Estenssoro probably will win the most votes, with former President Banzertrong third.of theandidatesimple majority, the election will be decided by the new Congress when it convenes in July.

Followers of both Siles and Paz have pledgedthe one who gets the most popular votes,candidate has yet committed himself. Thecontenders, however, have shown interesta settlement to avoid any The major parties also are consideringgovernment to ensure broad politicalthe next civilianni

A repeat of last year's electoral deadlock inwould tempt military hardliners tooup on the pretext of restoring order and leadership. armed forces plotters reportedly will accept either Paz or Banzer as president. They consider Siles anleftist, however, and have threatened an immediate coup if he wins the election.

In addition to having to contend with aenvironment and the continual threat of amilitary conservatives, the new president willdealepressed economy.

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