SITUATION REPORTS - POLAND

Created: 8/22/1980

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

situation reports

poland

The government mode little progrsat yeatardoy in trying to split str'.king workers in Gdansk by negotiating agreements with separate factory strike committee*.

this foliar* may account for the sudden replacement yesterday of the head of the regime's negotiating team.

leader may have been ousted, for conceding too many of the strikers' demands, particularly one that strikeremain active until the trade union congress, which ls slated for december. the change in chiefsuggests there are differing opinions within.the party leadership on how much to compromise in meeting the strikers' demands. there are rumors that the partycommittee will meet today or tomorrow: any serious differences could be addressed then.

the new head of the government commission.rima minister and party politburo member mieczyslaw jagielski, probably was selected because of hishandling of worker grievances in lublin in mid-july.

the church has showed that it is willingtotakethe situation, of gdansk met recently

with strike leaders and supported their fight forinonic gains andights but also counseledthat lengthy strikes and bloodshed would harm the national welfare. as with cardinal wyazynakl's statement that waa publicized on wednesday, the bishop's remarks can beread as encouraqernent for strikers to go back to work. JKk%

gdansk ^ ao'

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* ,

strike leaders ar* trying hard to prevent defections and to gain additional support. workers from the lenin

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shipyards, the center of strike activity,eighboring shipyard which has refused tobut failed to win it over. The arrest of thedissidents reporteily has served to hardenof the strikers to demand that thewith the Unified strike Committee. the movement of security forces to the coast,were printing and distributing leaflets toexplaining the strikes and iir-ninn them notvipon the strikers,

While most strike activity appears to be confined to the Baltic coast, several strikes have been reported elsewhere. Strikers at the large steel mill in the city of Neva Huta reportedly raised political as well as wage demandswo-day work stoppage earlier in the week but went .back to work when their economic demancs weremet. Official Polish contacts

hat several other enterprises in Mcwa Huta wore on strike Thursday and that, as of Wednesday, three or four thousand Silesian coal miners had been on strike to denc.nsi.rate sucpor^for their colleagues in Gdansk.

fct labor unrest in Opole and

Legnica provinces.

of an im- '

pending nationwide general striSe; such rumors have fre-guentjy surfacedof trouble but haveroved accurate, fl^fe

East German *

ast German partyconsiders the events in Poland to be veryEast Germany and feels that the political demandsstriking Polish workers threaten the foundations the East

German leadership believesother^ocialist countries als( feel the situation is ominous.

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SPECIAL ANALYSIS

POLAND: The Prospects for Confrontation

The struggle in Poland hae nouoint where clashes between workers and security fcrassistinct possibility, especially in the port cities along the Baltic coast. JoaerfUl forces of restraint, houever, are still in evidence. 4asV

The influence of young militants, assisted byon the joint strike committee appears to have increased. This leadership is now making economic and political desiands that go well beyond redress of the initial grievances of the current Industrial unrest.

The regime has no intention of accommodating the militants' political demands. It has made economicbut as it has done so, the demands have escalated.

This process has maimed the austerity program,the government insists that there is ultimately no alternative to it.- The regime also has sought to isolate the militants by refusing to negotiate with-the* joint strike committee, disrupting telecommunications, and arresting dissidents who have been serving aschannels,

A Volatile Situation

The regime has made at least contingency preparation for any violence. Police units have been moved fromto Gdansk, and the Politburo member in charge offorces is also there. Use of the security forces, however, and especially the military, runs the risks that these forces might not perform reliably and that any violence might spread beyond the regime's ability to control it. ammmrn

At the same time, the regime is attempting to wear down tho workers .with both threats and promises, it hopes that the militants' popular support will graduallyfrom fear, fatigue,ense that as much as possible has been accomplished, b

The staying power of the strikers will beaffected by the degree to which thenited front to the public, denyinghope of exploiting leadershipstartstrong point, having justyear retired Poland's unpopular Premier andto East Germany the one Politburo member whoto be his most serious ^

No ready alternative to Gierek's leadershipo exist. Both Gierek and Premier Babiueh have publicly committed their prestige to the regime's current stand, and there has been no suggestion that others in the leadership are wavering.

The Role of the Church

The attitude of. the workers and the regime will also be importantly affected by tho Church'solish television played up Cardinal Wyszinski's ippeal for calm onl B . cif.

The Church, however, can hardly berusted ally. It probably does not want matters too out of.hand that Gierek falls or the Soviets step in, but it atio does.not want to be viewed as opposing the aspirations of non-Communist Poles. flj^*> V:

Jiosoow's

The USSR and Poland's Warsaw Pact allies alsoan impact on the outcome. Three Sovietseparately this week that they werehad taken the correct stance and would be ablethe unrest:

Original document.

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