INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS REVIEW

Created: 1/1/1996

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International Narcotics Review

December6

APPROVED FOB RELEASE -

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International Narcolics Review^

JanuaryAmerica: Changes in the Drug Trade Posing New Challenges

The couiUernarcc*ics soccesses achieved against the cocaine trade5 appear lo have fundamentally altered the trafficking landscape in Latin America by diminishing the central role of the Colombian Cali drug mafia. The drug-trafficking industry, however, remains dynamic, and otherMexican and Colombian, bul also Bolivian andadjusting iheir operations lo take advantage of the situation Moreover, heroin trafficking is likely toore important element of the Latin American drug trade, androduction and trafficking is emergingignificant new drug threat from Mexico. Although Colombia will remain centralhe region's drug trade, counternarcotics efforts will be mosi effective in countering (heihat arc occurring in Latin American drug trafficking if ihey take account of the increasing relative importance of Mexico, in particular, andsource countries of Peru and Bolivia. Keeping pressure on the drug tradeelv to depend on governments giving greater priority to obtaining

the structure and operaiion* of trafficking

cro-ps. including money laundering srsrl efforts to corrupt govemmem and

security institutions, frequently assessing ihc impact of countenusreorics

efforts on trafficker operations, and iheir flexibility in being able io rapidly

change targeting priorities and shift resources.!

With US support, antidrug forces in Colombia and Peru struckblowshe Latin American drug trade:

The Colombian and Peruvian militaries,

jdisrupted the Peru-to-CoIombia narcotics

detected drug flights between countries by approximately half during the latter part of the year. The disruptions caused significant bottlenecks of perishable coca products in Peru, which led to rockbotiom prices for coca leaf and ils derivatives.

Peru made record seizures of cocaine- moreajor uaffkfcng ring that was shipping finished cocaine directly to Mexico. Peru also successfullyrug kingpin. Abclardo Cachiquc Rivera, who was deported from Colombia in June.

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These successes arc changing ihc structure and dynamics of the Latin American drug trade, as trafficking organizations arc adapting to the new operational realities facing them. In our view, the most significantof the disruptions caused lo Cali drug mafia operations and ihc Andean airbridge arc:

More diffuse cocaine business. The Call mafia's difficulties may cause the cocaine industry to become more decentralized. Independent cocainemay exploit any reduced Call grasp to form loose and perhapsworking alliances wilh diug (mnspoitalion specialists and distributors in order lo pool resources and spread Ihe risk of possible materia) and financial losses resulting from rountemarcotic* actions. With morenetworks at work and no group commanding the power and resources of the Cali drug mafia before ihc decimation of its lopcocaine trafficking operations arc likelye less efficient but also less vulnerable to the impact of arrests and seizures. Nigerian groups have stepped up cocaine trafficking io Europe on passenger aircraft via Brazil in the wakeuropean crackdown on large maritime shipments4 and might see the Cali mafia's problems as an opportunity to become more active in supplying ihe US market.

Growing Mexican inftutnet. Mexicanhave actedas facilitators of Colombian cocaine shipments lo the Uniledin recent years expanded their stake in ihe trade by purchasingmuch of ihe cocaine ihey smuggle across ihc US border. Thein Colombian dominance of the trade will open newtbe Mexicans to increase potential profits by buying the drugthe sourcecircumventing Colombianaltogether.

Diminished control by the Cali mafia. With many of its key leaders behind bars, the Call mafia may no longer command ihe respect among rivals and power lo dominate cocaine trafficking thai it once had. While the group isignificant player in the international drug trade and supplies large quantiliei of cocaine lo consumers, tt may be less able to dominate the processing of finished cocaine in the source countries; demand exclusive contracts with narcotics suppliers, transportation specialists, andor protect the security of its drug operations from law enforcement efforts.

agents may establish their own exclusive networks with narcoticsin the source countries in an effort to dominate the local buyer'smuch as the Cali mafia did.

Shying routes and production centers. The disruption of air routes from Peru to Colombia and the declining role of the Cali mafia have spurred significant changes in trafficking and processing nrends.|

[Peruvian and Bolivian

to sell as much of their coca derivatives to ihe usual Colombianincrease production of cocaine in its final form for direct export through the Souihern Cone countries lo markets in Europe. Asia, and ihe Uniled States, This would further hasten the growth in cocaine trafficking through Brazil, which is alreadyrug pickup point for Nigerian, European, and other criminal organizations.

* Potential for violence. With more players involved in more facets of the cocaine trade, competition for market share will put traffickersat odds in ways that are likely to spur additional violence.to Peruvian press reports, more thanraffickers were killed5 in just one Huallaga Valley frontier townonsequence of feuds between rival trafficking gangs. Such violent competition is likely to be exacerbated by efforts of iraffickcrs trying to establish dominance and may increase until new kingpins emerge to reestablish

Meanwhile, resurgence in consumer demand for heroin in the Unitedreinvigorating the interest of Latin American traffickers in heroin,is emergingignificant new drug threat aswho deal primarily with cocaine are gaining dominance inmethamphetamine trade. Tbe large Mexican drug-traffickinghave long been involved in heroin production and smuggling formarket.

em have begun cxpenntenting with pooovatthoTjgh production there remains rnarginal. However, ihe lowcoca products in Peru thatirect result of ihc disruption ofairbridge have led Peruvian coca leaders to publicly call for

namjineiatniiicucrative business area for Mexican traffickers, bothedge against counternarcotics successes against cocaine andtrafficking and because the Mexican trafficking organizations canthe entire process.

riTic manufacture and distribution

Counlernarcotics efforts in Latin America will needake accounthanging environment in which the Cali drug mafia may no longerthe cocaine industry as it has in the past. Moreover, although Colombia willritical locus of the region's drug uade. ihe relative imoor-lance of Mexico and the source countries of Peru and Bolivia is likely to increase. While trafficking patterns and trends are likely to shift in countries like Bolivia, Peru, and Bia/il,of its long border wiih theentral hub in Latin American drug trafficking. In these circumstances, countcrnarcotics efforts in Latin America would be most effectively enhanced if:

focus of antidrug efforts in Colombia. Peru, and Bolivia is expanded lo include second-uer traffickers or new organizations trying to become more assenive in the cocaine industry.

Drug-trafficking organizations arc largeted on the basis of the scope of their international activities and connections, particularly with Mexican, as well as Colombian, groups.

The leadership and production. transportabOrumoney-laundering componenu of targeted drug-trafficking organizations remain the primary focus of law enforcement actions against them. Irnposing IEEPAagainst legitimate companies used by traffickers is proving to be as effective means of attacking the narcotics industry.

Counternarcoiics efforts are continually evaluated in order to determine their impact on the trafficking situation. They must also anticipate and be responsive to new trends und emerging threats, such as greater heroin flows and meihanipheiaininc trafficking.

The employment of counternarcoiics assets and resources is sufficiently flexible and adaptive to possible rapid changes in targets or the trafficking situation.

Couiuernarcotics efforts tn Mexico and against Mexican traffickerselsewhere in Latin America are given greater priority and increased resources. Indeed, as Mexican traffickers become more powerful in all aspects of the drug irade. Mexico has already joined Colombia asegional narcotics trafficking.

Uprooiing and prosecuting corruption is singled outriority inpolicies.

To cope with the increasingly complex nature of drug trafficking. Latin American countries will not only have to acquire more intelligenceon the structure and operations of trafficking groupsynamic situation but will also need to share that knowledge and coordinatemore among themselves. Few countries, for example, are deeply knowledgeable about the activities and influence of Mexican traffickers within their borders. For reasons of both political realities and resources. Latin American countries will continue to look to Washingtonatalyst for improving counternarcotics cooperation and

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