International Narcotics Review
6
Perspective
6
Latin America: Changes In ihr Drug Trade Posing New Challenges
countemarcolics successes achieved against ihe cocaine Bade inio have fundamentally altered the trafficking landscape Inby diminishing the central role or the Colombian Cali drugdrug-trafficking industry, however, remains dynamic, and otherMexican and Colombian, butandadjusting their opcraiions lo lake advantagesituation. Moreover, heroin trafficking is likely io become aclement of the Latin American drug trade, andand trafficking is emergingignificant new drug threatAlthough Colombia will remain central lo (he region's drugefforts will be most effective in countering ihcthai arc wcurring in Latin American drug trafficking if iheyof the increasing relative importance of Mexico, in particular,source countries of Peru and Bolivia. Keeping pressure on theis likely lo depend on governments giving greater priority tothe structure and opciations ofand effort* to corrupt governmentinstiluliorts. frequently assessing Ihe irrtpact ofon trafficker operations, and rheir flexibility in being able lotargeting priorities and shift
With US support, antidrug forces in Colombia and Peru struckblows to the Latin American drug irade:
I isrupted the Peru-io-Colomhia narcniic;detectedorug flights between countries by approximately half during ihc latter part of the year. The disruptions caused significant bottlenecks of perishable coca products in Peru, which led lo rockbotlom prices Tor coca leaf and its derivatives.
Peru made record seizuresajor trafficking ring that was shipping finished cocaine directly io Mexico. Peru also successfullyrug kinsjnin, Abclardo Cachiquc Rivera, who was deponed from Colombia in Juner^
These successes are changing Ihe structure and dynamics of the Latin American drug trade, as trafficking organizations are adapting to the new operational realities facing them. In our view, the most significantof the disruptions caused to Cali drug mafia operations and Ihe Andean airbridge are:
Diminishedcontrolby the Call mafia. With many of ils key leaders behind ban. the Call mafia may no longer command the respect among rivals and power to dominate cocaine trafficking lhat it once had While the group isignificant player in the international drug trade and supplies large quantities of cocaine io consumers, it may be less able to dominate the processing of finished cocaine in ihe source countries; demand exclusive contracts wiih narcotics suppliers, transportation specialists, andor protect the security of ils drug operations from law enforcement effort- i
Mure diffuse cocaine business. The Cali mafia's difficulties may cause ihc cocaine industry to become more decentralized. Independent cocainemay exploit any reduced Cali grasp to form loose and perhapsworking alliances with drug transportation specialists and distributors in ordci to pool resources and spread ihc risk of possible material and financial losses resulting from countemarcobes actions. With morenetworks at work and no group commanding the power and resources of the Cali drug mafia before the decimation of iis lopcocaine trafficking operations are likely to be less efficient but also less vulnerable to the impact of arret* and seizures. Nigerian groups have stepped up cocaine trafficking to Europe on passenger aircraft via Bra7.il in the wakeuropean crackdown on large maritime shipments4 and might see the Cali mafia's problems as an opportunily to become more active in supplying the US market.
Grown? Mexican influence Mexicanhave actedas faciliutors of Colombian cocaine shipments to the Unitedhave in recent years expanded their stake in the trade by purchasingmuch of ihe cocaine ihey smuggle across the US border The likely decline in Colombian dominance of the irade will open new opportunities for the Mexicans to increase potential prohi* by buying the drug directly from the sourcecircumventing Colombian middle-
men altogether. |
agents may establish their own exclusive networks with narcoticsin the source countries in an effort to dominate the local buyer'smuch as the Cali mafia did.
Shiftinf; routes and production centers. The disruption of air routes from Peru to Colombia and the declining role of the Cali mafia have spurred significant changes in trafficking and processing trends.!
< Peruvian ana Bolivian
to sen as much ot their coca derivatives to the usual Colomhianincrease production of cocaine in its final form for direct export through the Southern Cone countries to markets in Europe. Asia, and the United States. This would further hasten the growth in cocaine trafficking through Brazil, which is alreadyrug pickup point for Nigerian, European, and other criminal organizations,
Potential for violence. With more players involved in more facets of the cocaine trade, competition for market share will put traffickersat odds in ways that are likely to spur additional violence.to Peruvian press reports, more thanraffickers were killed5 in just one Hualiaga valley frontier townonsequence of feuds between rival trafficking gangs. Such violent competilion is likely to be exacerbated by efforts of traffickers trying to establish dominance and may increase until new kingpins emerge to reestablish order.r
Meanwhile, resurgence in consumer demand for heroin in the Unitedreinvigoraling the interest of Latin American traffickers in heroin,is emergingignificant new drug threat aswho deal primarily with cocaine are gaining dominance inmeihamphetamine trade. The large Mexican drug-traffickinghave long been involved in heroin production and smuggling formarket.
partners in Peru have begun experimenting with poppyalthough production there remains marginal. However, the low prices for coca products in Peru thaiireci result of the disruption of the Peru-Colombia airbridge have led Peruvian coca leaders to publicly callwitchover to poppy.]
phe mamifaciure and distribution
of methamphctamincucrative business area for Mexican traffickers, bolhedge against counternarcotics successes against cocaine andtrafficking and because the Mexican trafficking organizations canthe entire process.!
Ccnmir^narro-ici effortsim America will need to take accounthanging environment in which the Cali drug mafia may no longerthe cocaine industry as il has in the past. Moreover, although Colombia willritical locus of the region's drug trade, the relativeof Mexico and the source countries of Peru and Bolivia is likely lo increase. While trafficking patterns and trends arc likely lo shift in countries like Bolivia, Peru, and Brazil,of its long border with theentral hub in Latin American drug trafficking. In these drcurnslances. counternarcotics efforts in Lalin America would he most effectively enhanced if:
The focus of antidrug efforts in Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia is expanded to include second-tier iraffickcrs or new organizations tryingecome more assertive in Ihe cocaine industry.
Drug-trafficking organization? arc targelcd on the basis of ihe scope of their international activities and connections, particularly with Mexican, as well as Colombian, groups.
The leadership and production, transportation, and money-laundering components of targeted drug-trafficking organizations remain the primary focus of law enforcement actions against them. Imposing IEEPA sane-lions against legitimate companies used by traffickers is proving to be an effective means of attacking ihc narcotics industry.
Counternarcotics efforts are continually evaluated in order lo determine their impact on the trafficking .situation. They must also anticipate and be responsive to new trends and emerging ihreals. such as greater heroin Hows and methamphelaminc trafficking.
The employment of couniernarcolics assets and resources is sufficiently flexible and adaptive to possible rapid changes in targets oi the trafficking situation.
* Counternarcotics efforts in Mexico and against Mexican traffickerselsewhere in Lalrn America are given greater priority and increased resources. Indeed, as Mexican traffickers rxcornc more powerful in all aspects of ihe drug trade, Mexico has already joined Colombia as accsuritry in regional narcotics trafficking.
* Uprooting anil prosecuting corruption is singled outriority inpolicies.
To cope with the increasingly complex nature of drug trafficking, Latin American countries will not only have to acquire more intelligenceon the structure and operations of trafficking groupsynamic situation but will also need to share that knowledge and coordinatemore among themselves. Few countries, for example, arc deeply knowledgeable about the activities and influence of Mexican traffickers within their borders. For reasons of bom political realities and resources. Latin American countries will continue to look to Washingtonatalyst for improving counternarcotics cooperation and capabilities.
Original document.
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