PROLIFERATION DIGEST

Created: 5/31/1996

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China Plans Ambitious Nuclear Test Schedule ^

Test Program | Icsi schedule6 is in most the four planned tests represent twice iheconducted in teceni

two of the four test sites arc in late-sta^c

test preparations, one is in carry-stage preparations. and one is in the site-preparation

China's track record for achieving its test goals is mixed. Although three tests were planned4 and againnly two were actually conducted in each year' Barring political or technical delays, we judge that the Chinese probably will be able tothe first two| ests by late June. The) I liest could be conducted by August, and thcTasI could occur in October or November.

maintains that itight to testTBT enters ir.to force. China's efforts to expedite its test program and conduct four tests this year suggest, however, thai Heiiing is concerned that continuedafterTBT -which cottltl occur byresult In sharp internationalWith the recent conclusion of France's nuclear test program, lhe Chinese are under added pressure to end their program. |

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tl Ma, IC<*>

Original document.

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