Chinese Nuclear Event in September
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nd 6Sfflttmbg at China's nuclear tea site, ai
We have assessed three probable nuclear testing scenarios in descending order or likelihood. None is completely consistent with all of the evidence:
Nuclear artillery shell. An unidentified type of testtactical" uranium artillery shell at Lop Nur was planned
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Phina has had the capability toiliull-jield testuclear
China mightartial-yield testariety or reason's. We also cannot roleull-yield test of an extremely low-yieldailureun-assembled device the most likely designranium artillery shell-is considered unlikely.
Safely test. Safety tests are conducted lo determine whateapon would produce if accidentally demnaterj, This scenario is. mniisirnt wilh
Hydmnuclear experiment. In hydronuclear experiments, some fissile material is removedarhead to minimize nuclear yield anddata to calibrate codes al low yields, and perhaps to examine some
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