Special Intelligence Report
Office of African and Latin American Analysis
Burundi: Forces Determining Alternative Outcomes ^
Ethnic extremism is driving the cycles of violence thai threaten to plunge Burundi into its seventh communal slaughter since independence from Belgiumast month aloneurundians died in ethnicere displaced,led into neighboring countries. We judge that shifts in the balance of power between extremals and moderates are the dominant factor responsible for alternating periods of significantly increased violence and temporary stability.
Snapshot of the Status Quo [
During the last year, repealed upsurges in attacks by Hutu insurgents and Tutsi youth gangs strained the fragile cooperation between ihc Hutu and Tutsi political'centers lo nearly (he breaking point, in our judgment, three forces are contributing lo Burundi's current downward spiral.
Tutsi supremacists reject powercharing with Hutus, claiming that Hutu authorities will try to exierminate the Tutsis. as nearly happened in Rwanda. Efforts toulus inio the Burundian military, for example, are generally believed to have triggered the3 coup attempt in0 Burundians died. Currently. Tutsi extremists arc demanding that new regional governors be Tutsi Army officers; virtuallyew Army recruits are Tutsis.
Violence. The burgeoning Hutu insurgency led by Leonard Nyangoma's Front for the Defense of Democracy (FDD) is gaining support among Hulu political leaders and the Hutu population as their only means to force Tutsis into restoring (he Hum-dominated government electedhe FDD--the largest of the three Hulu insurgent groups-isew offensive since late Mayix-week lull Tutsi extremists employ political violence through youth gangs, supported by sympathetic elements in the securily services. Tutsi militias are arming and are believed responsible lor the recent wave of assassinations of promineni Hutus,1-
of (he Army continue to
participate in massacresutu civilians.
APFRDVEl R DEC
tMtical^larjaiiorj. Extremist* in boih groups have proven adept at using ethnicity to manipulate their largely illiterate populations into supporting supremacist positions. Moreover, assassinations and intimidation have robbed the Hutu and Tutsi political center of strong leaders able lo openly discuss and negotiate the sensitive issues of ethnic rccoriciliarion and powenbaring. The Tutsi Prime Minister and senior Tutsi Army officers
|fcar rjeingaey publicly advocate
ails Hutu parliamentarians are abandoning President Nlibantunganya to support FDD leader Nyangoma
Ingredients for EscalatingV
If ethnic extremists succeed in dominating either the Tutsi or Hutu political factions, the risk of large-scale killings -similar to the levels of killing in3 in0 were killed in less than two months-would increase dramatically
Developments that uniied Tutsi extremistsympathetic military-the alliance behind3 coup attempt-would he the most likely recipe for an ethnic bloodbath. As they have before, Tutsi extremists would become more active if they;
Feared Tutsi moderates were preparing to crack down on extremists, undercut the power of the Army, or allow Hutu politicians lo exercise power.
Believed (hat an international military force was preparing to miervene. which in their view is the first step toward dissolving the Tutsi-dominated military.
Perceived thai Hutu insurgents were making major military gains.
id to takeutsi extremist-military alliance probably wouldomewhat coordinated effort to assassinate Hutu and moderate Tutsi rivals in Bujumbura, kill local Hutu leaders, finish cleansing Hutus from major towns, and launch military sweeps throughout the country to intimidate the general Hulu population. Countrywide violence would almost certainlyarge-scale exodus of Hulu refugees into already overburdened neighboring countries .
a
In responseharp spike in ihe number of Hums being killed-pcrhapsonsequenceutsi extremist powcrgrab--thc insurgents might become convincedroader civil war is necessaryrive the Tutsts from power or incite an international military force lo intervene. As parttrategy loeneral Hutu rebellion, Hutu extremists would likely urge Hulusill Tutsi civilians, triggering counter massacres by ihe Tutsi security forces. To lead this wider rebellion, however, the insurgents would probably need to unify the three Hutu insurgentim prospect at this juncture--and obtain significant amounts of additional weapons.
r the Road lo Reconciliation? q
If Hutu and Tuisi moderates were able to reign in and begin to isolate theas they tried earlier this ycar--prospecls would improve forolitical settlement and cease-fire. Calls for an ethnically balanced military and genuine political and economic powersharing have been part of every domestic and international effort lo bring peaceurundi. In our judgment, however, breaking the cycle of violence requires Burundi's elites to commit themselvesommon national idcniity, institutionalize ethnic cooperation rather than separatism, and agree to confidence-building mechanisms that include international arbilratkm-an extremely tall
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Tutsi moderates were able to severely limit extremist influence in the security forces and civil service. Extremists would also need to be denied access to public and foreignifficult task given the difficulty in gaining the cooperation of European countries, where we believe most of their assets arc located
Tutsi militias and youth gangs were disarmed and disbanded.
The Army's capability were weakersed, perhapsesult of an arms erribargo or flagging morale over lack of pay. causing more Tutsis lo consider negotiating at least an tntrnm cease-fire to protect Tutsi interests.
Hutu politicians and insurgents unitedutu leaders comrrutted to protecting minority rights for Tutsis. Such leadership is critical if the Tutsi establishment is to have the confidence townprehensive reconciliation package.
Hutu insurgents lost their access to safehavens and areas of resupply in neighboring countries. I
Thismemcrsrtdum was prepared at the request of National Security Adviser Anthony Lakeof Africanm American Analysis Comments andare *elcnme ami
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A number of diplomatic efforts are now underway to stop the killing and establish the framework for political talks.
these efforts are generating considerable pressure on Btirundi's major players to negotiate, but unless some tangible benefits to both sides are produced soon, the Tutsi and Hutu protagonists may feel that they must intensify their violence in order to wrest concessions from the other side.
Ending Violence
Cease-Fire Under Consideration. The FDD insurgents, under strong Western and regional pressure, claim they arc willing toease-fire and begin talks provided the Burundian Army is restricted to barracks. Tutsi moderates are demanding that the insurgents first lay down arms. Tutsi extremists are threatening renewed violence if FDD leader Nyangoma is included in talks.
Arrns Flows; Targeted- Zairian President Mobutu says he will curb insurgent arms flows as partease-fire. Tutsis are pressing for an arms embargo against Zaire to curb weapons smuggling into Burundi.
Hum Rebel Radio Broadcasting. Tutsis insist that the radio cease broadcasting, claiming it spreads ethnic hate. Insurgents say the radio criticizes (he government, but isate radio, and (hat they have recently moderated the radio's message. Zairians say they need Western technical help to close down the radio.
Fostering Political Negotiations
Public Nycrere-Mcdiated Talks Troubled. With little progress made during tlie first round of talks in late April, talks between Hutu and Tutsi political leaders resumed in Mwanza. Tanzania under former President Nyercrc's mediation on Tuesday appear againe deadlocked. Hutu political leaders are backing Nyercrc's efforteconfigure the government to reflect the Hutu victory in3 elections. The dominant Tutsi parry reportedly believes, however, that Nyercre is biased toward (he Hutus and is not working to protect their minority rights. The Tutsi Army says it will not participate in political talks, and Tutsi extremists claim they arc being excluded from the talks. Hulu insurgents say they accept Nyercrc's effort.
Private SajU Egidjo Talks Ortgoiog. The Prime Minster and the DefenseTutsi-have sent representatives to participate in exploratory talks in Rome being mediated by the Catholic Sant Egidio lay organization. Hutu insurgents have also sent representatives, but are reportedly unhappy with the talks' exploratory nature.
Eferjch^PioposaJ. Paris hopes to convene an intemaiional conference under UN auspices. There has been virtually no progress in organizing this meeting, however.
Original document.
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