NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Created: 10/11/1980

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

SITUATION REPORTS

ISAO-IRAN

The Iraqis oiy be moving to cut Iranian supply tinea betveen KhorrGr-ahzh- and Abadan. (U)

fpress reports indicateontoon crossingyesterday. / 1

Tha Iraqisarning yesterday that they plan to use more surface-to-surface weapons against Dezful and Ahvaz. Scud missiles or FROG rockets hove been used against Dezful the first day of the war and again on Thursday; the Iranians claim thar* werecasualties in the attack on Thursday. | |

Iraqi Shias

Ayatollah Khomeini's exhortations for Iraqis to rise up and overthrow President Saddam Hussein are having little apparent impact on Iraq's majority Shia Muslim population, although Shia dissident groups are continuing theiragainst the regine. Iraqi security officialshave redoubled their efforts to crack down on shia opposition groups since the beginning of tho hostilities.

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Baghdad is countering Iranian calls for rebollion bypesaages of support for Saddam from Iraqi Shia

loaders. i

The Libyan Position

Libyan leader Qadhafi's message yesterday to Saudi Aiiihia and tho smaller Persian Gulf states underlines the growing division among Arab states over the Iraqi-Iranian war. Qadhafi called for resistance to tho "Americanadvance" in the Arabian peninsula and raada it clear that he intended to oppose the US "occupation" with or without tho cooperation of the peninsula governments. He presumably was threatening to work against regimesUS military assistance or assurances. (U)

Qadhafi also noted that it is an Islamic "duty" to side with the Muslixs of Iran in this confrontation,that Iraq is allied with the West. The Libyan leader's irpulse to side with Iran probably grows out of recent strained relations with Iraq and his sympathy for therevolution, which he sees as an imitation of his own.

Iraq yesterday announced the closure of its embassies in Libya, Syria, and North Korea in protest of thesesupport for Iran. Libyan, Syrian, and North Korean diplomats have been told to leave Iraq by this weekend. Baghdad, however, apparently has stopped short of formally breaking diplomatic relations. (U)

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Persian Gulf Shipping

Merchant ships continue to move safely through the Strait of Hormuz. There hasise in the number of tankers entering the Gulf of Oman this week as fears caused by the conflict began to abate.

Oil company officials involved in tanker operations meeting in London Kodnesday agreed that there is noproblem with navigation through the Strait. Insurance rates are no longer posted for ships in the Shatt al Arab and Iranian coastal waters except on an ad hoc basis.

Original document.

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