National Intelligence Daily
tuesday
70
situation reports.
IRAN-IRAQ
Tt-hivnbtmlvjeaond aonaeoutiva day yoozerdai, and Iraqi aircraft also vtrtiok military and oocnomie Uxrgete in /lUM.
Mood -.
ci-
villnn and military morale in Baghdad remains nlgn Idiplomatic speculation on President Saddamdemise is premature.
Iraqi enthusiasm for the fighting appears to tx? waning as Iraqi civilians see evidence that the conflict has direct costs:
--The Iranian Air Force continues to hit Baghdad and othor Iraqi cities.
of foreign workers and theirare leaving Iraq.
--Baghdad University has suspended classeswhile elementary and secondary schools appear to have closed temporarily.
funerals of Iraqi soldiers killed inare more numerous.
Trac's hopesuick victory have been dashed. Its strategy now is probably to woar down Iraniansince the Iraqis may estimate that the Iranian military cannot continue its current level of operations much longer and will soon have significant shortagesiol and spare parts. | |
The prospectonger war has made Iraq especially sensitive to any sign that foreign governments areIran with military supplies. Recent Iraqi pressaa well as charges by Iraqi Defense Minister Talfah that the US is supplying Iran with spare parts, reflect Iraq's concern that Washington and Tehran willeal involving arms and the hostages. j
Inside Iran
president Bani-Sadr's newspaper in editorials over the weekend sharply criticized his clerical opponents for their purges of the officer corps before the war with Iraq. The paper criticized "narrow-minded Muslim fundamentalists"
} October AtO
who sought to weaken the amed forces and asked, "What would have been tho fate of Iran today if they hadin the plans to eliminate our Arny?' (u)
Bani-Sadr is probably attempting to seize theinitiative. He undoubtedly fears that the clerics will blame him for Iran's military setbacks because he has been commander in chief of the armed forces since last February, and assumed direct command of the war effort shortly before tho Iraqi offensive into Khuzcstan.
Soviet Reaction
The Soviets for the first time have sought to suggest
a possible Wnste would impinge on tho
force in the Persian Gulf USSR's security interests
.
Original document.
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