NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Created: 11/6/1980

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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SITUATION REPORTS

I RAW-1RAN

Becrirninatione over the war my haoa begun in Baghdad.

Iraqi officers reportedly have begun voicingover political constraints on militarythose caused by orders to avoid heavyt /

lead-

ersiave used-Efie opportunity presented by the war to reinstate competent officers previously purged because of questionable political loyalty.

The political constraints probably areBaghdad's failure to press its campaign ina successful conclusion. Despite overwhelmingon the ground and no apparent shortage ofunits essentially occupy the same positionsduring the first two weeks in the war. InIraqi forces are opposed by only tokenforces. Even in Khorramshahr, where thehas taken place, the Iraqis have beenstorm Iranian positions, preferring instead toresistance through artillery fire,

Tho Iraqi failure to cut the road and rail lines at Dczful and to clear other cities rapidly has given the Iranians time to regroup and to bring in reinforcements.

In the long term these failures may cost Baghdad'scasualties than they would have sufmilitary action at the outset,

Criticism of the civilian leadership's role inthe Iraqi war effort reflects longstandingbetween the Baath Party and the military. Ke have no hard evidence that military discontent with Saddam's leadership has led to plotting, but the Iraqi military is the only institution capable ofci challenge to Baathist rule.

Both sides, meanwhile, continued shelling each

other's positions around Abadan.

1X7 which haa boenat least twice by surface-to-surface missiles. /

Iranians Reject Cease-fire

Ayatollah Khomeini yesterday rejected the "peace offer' made by Saddam in his recent speech and said there can be "no compromise" with the "infidels." Khomeini again called for the overthrow of Saddam's government. (U)

Earlier this week Prime Minister Rajai reiterated the Iranian position that Iraq must withdraw to itsborder before negotiations on the war could bo held. Rajai indicated that Iran might then be willing toall issues of concern toover the Shatt al Arab, other territorial demands, andin each other's internalhinted that he would oppose direct talks with Baghdad, preferring instead either nonalignod or Islamic mediation. (U)

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