SPOT COMMENTARY: REVIEW OF POLISH DEVELOPMENTS

Created: 11/10/1980

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY NATIONAL FOREIGN ASSESSMENT CENTER

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SPOT COMMENTARY: Review of Polish Developments

Press reports from Warsaw and Moscow since yesterday have carried accounts of recent joint maneuvers by Soviet and Polish forces. Warsaw Radio reports claim that the maneuvers were held on Thursday and Fridayraining ground in the Pomeranian Military District. Polish televisionilm of tanks, infantry, and helicopter gunshlps on maneuvers, indicating that the maneuvers were large scale. TASS reporting stated that Polish and Poland-based Soviet units exercised in accordance with the training plan and years of longj

suggestsmall amount of

training activity oecurrea ih Pomeranla last week.

press spokesman told visiting journalists on Friday evening that there were no joint maneuvers taking place and added that he wasosition to know if any wore. He did say, however, that Polish forces were always involved in some form of military training. I I

Wo have no evidenceoint exercise of anyhas occurred. Low levels of trainingmall-scaleexercise possibly could have occurred withoutin Siglnt. The last joint Polish-Sovietthis time ofthe Fall

Normally, the Warsaw Pact announces only those large-scale exercises required under the Helsinkiinvolving at0 personnel. These announcements are usually accompanied by information with regard to date and size. The laBt such announced exercise was the Comrades-ln-Arms held ir. EaBt Germany during September,

Wa believe tha Poles (and later tha Soviets) made their announcements in an effort to intimidate the leaders of tha trade union Solidarity and tharemind them that their actions might compel the rejime to use force and that ultimately

the Soviets might havo to intervene. Tough speeches by party officials and the government's barring foreign reports from entering tha country were other indications that the regime over the weekend was preparingonfrontation with the unions.

Today, however, the regime stopped back by agreeing tn register Solidarityeference to the leading role of _ne party in an annex and not in the main body of the new union's charter. Solidarity leaders will reportedly call off the strikes that were slated to begin Wednesday.

The Kania regime retreated probably because it believed it would have to meet another round of strikes with more forceful action, including the use of police or the military and that this confrontation would lead to bloodshed and be uncontrollable. Kania may hope that he has bought more time to rebuild the party's morale and effectiveness and to divide Solidarity's leadership, ]

The defusing of this particular crisis does not metvn, however, that alletween the regime and Solidarity have been resolved or that the union will not use the strike threat again during the coming months. Such issues as access to the media and the new law on trade unions have yet to be worked out.

presume that this compromise will be unacceptable to the Czechoslovak and East German leaderships and that their shrill commentary will continue. Moscow was probably notified beforehand about the compromise, with the Poles arguing that this was the only course open to them.

Prepared by:

i.2ntVATIVE Ci. BY

DCCLC REVW ONovERIVED

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