POLAND

Created: 10/30/1980

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The sudden visit today of party leader Kania and Premier Pinkouski to Hosoou vill be interpreted in Poland and eleeuhere as an expression of increased Soviet nervousness over internal Poliah developments.

The trip, which we believe was hurriedly arranged at Soviet insistence, ccmes as the Polish regime ir trying to determine how to respond to the latest demands and threats of strikes by the free trade union Solidarity The Soviets probably want to discuss Kania's strategy, stiffen his resolve, and signal to the Polishthat Moscow's tolerance may now beimit. Kania, for his part, will likely seek to determine just what, these limits currently are.

The trip to Moscow comesonth-long period in which the Soviets publicly maintained abut obviously were increasing strident criticisms by their East European allies. The chairman of the zechoslovak trade union councilolitburo member yesterday said that the establishment of free trade unions la analogous to the "conduct of antisocialist forces in the crisis-ridden years in Czechoslovakia." fM

Solidarity leaders were scheduled to discuss their demands with Pinkowski tomorrow in Warsaw, and we expect Pinkowski to return in time for what couldrucial session. After two days of heated discussionshis week, the Solidarity leadership announced that if the talks are not successful they wllLcall for strikes onovember at selected locales. CHP^-

Finding compromise solutions will be difficult. Tha issues atacknowledgment of the leading role of. the party and the union's right tomatters of principle for both sides. Although union leaders disagree on tactics and other demands, they seem united on these issues, fearingompromise would beirst step in allowing the party to take back what it promised ln the Gdansk accords.

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The regime, for its put, hasore rigid stance on union registration than on any other issue; it has publicly committed itself on the question of its leading role. Its inflexibility is probably due not only to pressure from within the party.but also to real or perceived pressure from Moscow, Mt

Failure of the two sides to reach soae sort oftomorrow or soonprobably resulttrike. If the more radical forces in Solidarity gain the ascendancy, the strike could be general ar. nationwide. If union leader Walesa and the moderates maintain their control, it would probably be

n either case would be quite

as itctober, wait tho

strike o- ope rank-and-file support for the striiters . The regime might come under pressure to use force. Tho use of police to evict strikers from the factories, however, would be very risky, becauseuldquickly lose control ul the situation. MMMMt

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