SITUATION REPORTS - POLAND

Created: 9/19/1980

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

SITUATION REPORTS

POLAND

The decision Wednesday by free trade union aotioiata toa national advisory organization preaenta the Kania regimeadar challenge, but ve believe the regime will not refuse the organization the legal right to exist.

Although the recent agreements ending the strikes on the Baltic Coast and in Silesia did not prohibit the formationational unio; body, the regime probably hoped it would not be confronted so quickly on thisissue, which will test the limits of Soviet toler- -ance. Nevertheless, the regime prcbrbly believes it has no alternative but to live with the nationalleast for the near term. To refuse it registration in the current heated atmosphere could lead to further confrontations andeneral strike. of the advisory groups will present their _'registration papers tc the courts next Wednesday, esses*-

The decision to form the advisory organization was the resultompromise among free trade unionon whatational organization would have. The stronger unions on the Baltic Coast under Lech Walesa opposed the creationolid federation, saying that the unions should concentrate..their efforts ontheir local bases of power. The weaker unionsthe Baltic Coast pressedederation believing they needed protection in their struggle to become In the end the two sides agreed on the creationonsultative;'advisory national organization with no authority-over local unions. The official status of this advisory body will.be valid for one year at which time the first congress reportedly will be held. The regime may be relieved and may see an opportunity to exploitthe differences within, the-free trade union movement.:

It is not clear whether the national body intends to try to register far all the free trade unions or only for itself. The regime will probably insist that each factory,r regional union register, ln order to use the registration data to keep closer tabs on the strength and support for the unions. t'*fB*V

Activities by Soviet

* Observable activities by the Soviet leaders reveal othing unusual... Soviet media provided upbeat coverage to the meetings Brezhnev and Suslov had with Deputy

aqlelski last week which implicitly endorsed the initial efforts that Kania and his colleagues are making to put thingsoland.

There have been no consultations with East Europeanof the type that would take place if thcthey, must exert greater pressure on theMinister Ustinov did,meet with East Germanand other Warsaw Pact defense ministers whilethe Comrades-in-Armsxercise last week, party chief Shcherbitskiy was in Bulgariafew days to mark the SofiahBrezhnev nor any of the other top Sovietare known to have met with any of the top East leaders since Brezhnev's sessions with his Eastcounterparts in the Crimea during late July andAugust,

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