POLAND

Created: 12/3/1980

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

MEMORANDUM

POLAND

Tfcereindications thet the Soviets are increasingtor an invasion of Poland. Recent military activities in end around Poland are highly unusual or unprecedented for this tint of year. We are atiare of preparations for an wauncnt unscheduled joint services exercise involving Soviet, east German, Polish, end

Czechoslovak forces, ftns could be designed toPolish leadership and population, tut in view of otherin the western USSH it could aleo serve as a. cover for Tht unusual closing af large areas of Ea&ttke cflSthlish border between SO NcvenberDecanter probably

A substantial buildup of forces could now be unde-vav in the western military districts of the

know the statusof the

around^forces that would be used to invade Poland. We

l"eWmMmWam^

additionala uoHrtrainiii^cUvitvislto be taxing place undetected. There might little warning time prior to an invasion. "

On balance, this activity does not necessarily indicateoviet invasion is imminent. We believe that these preparations suggest, however, ovie-mtervention is increasingly likely, fj

ate

/or-

Rumors aire circulating in Moscow that since m. iNovember Polish forces have begun withdrawing westward from the Polish-USSR border to prevent being caughturprise Soviet attack. The Polish forces reportedly are redeploying toilometers from ifle border. We have no evidence to confirm these rumors.

Changes in Polish Party

The Polish party has mace additional changes in the ruling party politburo in another effort to restore unitv within the party ranks. The two-day central committee session that ended yesterday dropped party ideologue Andrze) Worblan, former Warsaw party leader Alojzy Kar-kos2ka, former Interior Minister Stanislaw Kowalczyk, and former longtime trade union boss Wladyslaw Kruczek. Added to the politburo were General Mieczyslawormer Interior Ministeronservative,reputaLion, and Tadeusz Grebski, an aggressiveto the party leadership.

The changes will dilute Kania's authority within the party leadership. Neither Grabski nor Moczar has any recson to follow Kania's lead. Grabski has been associated with StcianOslzowski, the other major force on the politburo.

The changes seem intended to draw together the ranks or tho party and torocess of disintegration at the lower levels that has gathered momentum in recent weeks. Both Grabski and Moczar seem to be strongof greater discipline within the party. ationalist inclinations have not aet well with the Soviets in the past, but his advocacy of discipline and

firmness aay under the circumstances be attractive to Moscow. *M ^

Soviet Corocntary

TASS has reported that both Kania and Premier Pinkowski spoke at the plenum, but Moscow hasinto any details on tho proceeding in Warsaw, Hcanwhi>. th* Soviets continue publicly to'msist that they havw no intention of invading Poland. oreign Ministxy spokespan has catecorically denied rumorsoviet troop mobilisation in the Carpathian Nilitary District ir nsisted that there are no plans for

however, have stepped up theiron the Polishmcc the wost recent US demarche on the subject. report from Warsaw yesterday accused Or.urging -Folisri opposition forces" to launch anagainst the Polish authorities. The TASScharged the with seeking to use theFund to gam control over the Polishreports suggested that Moscow slight notthe Fund under certain conditions.

Econonic Situation

In his speech before tho plenum on Monday, Pinkowski confirmed0 has been another disastrous year for tne Polish economy. He described the econonic situation as 'serious beyona words^and caw fow prospects for major

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during

Despite the rrim state of the economy. Pinkowski promised that foou supplies, notably meat, this xonth will atual their9 levels. This priority undoubtedly reflects thc regime's awareness that tne threat to put. xche holiday season.

mi ui

3RO

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