Created: 4/8/1981

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EAST GERMANY, i Party Congress

The arisie in Inlandomber setting forh Party Congress, whieh opens on Saturday.

in addition to the menace of new political forces emerging in Poland, developments there areurden on the East German economy. East Germany has provided Poland with0 million in hard currency loans andsubstantial quantities of food and consumer goods. mmm

If the Soviet delegation is led, as expected, by party ideologist Suslov, he may amplify Presidenta statement yesterday on Poland, perhapsore negative vein. East German leader Honecker will echo those warnings, but he will also stress the Warsaw Pact'i peace offensive- toward the West. ffBfff>

Although there are no organized dissident groups in East Germany and there is no apparent inclination to imitate the Polish workers, tho regime worrios about tne declining rate of growth in party membership and the increasing isolation of tho party. Party functionarieslose watch on the churches, which have someand probably would berallying point for any discontent following an Intervention in Poland. Such unrest, however, would not be likely to threaten the regime.

Honecker is inh year as party leader and firmly in control. Although he appears in excellent neaith and soems to enjoy Moscow's full confidence, he

will behis year and the succession question is thus

beginning to receive attention. B

Rgle Daw J

Some younger leaders may be promoted to seniorbut none of the changes will significantly affect East German policy. The most important change at tho Congress might be the replacement of ailing Premier Stoph by Politburo membor and economic chief Mittag.

Original document.

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