POLAND: CONTINUED STATE OF READINESS

Created: 4/8/1981

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POLAND: Continued State Of Readiness

Tha military situation in and around Poland remains relatively unchanged einee yesterday, despitennovnaemente thatas ended and Breshnev's somewhat restrained statements in Prague. Solidarity leader Walesa's call yesterday for the union to abandon its tact ice of confrontation in ite dealings with thewill make it difficult for Prime Minister Jaruselski to gain parliamentary support for an immediate imposition of martial law. Ualesa may have learned of Jaruselski's plans ond will press even harderoderate stance during the throe-day meeting ol Solidarity'e national leadership elated to end tomorrow.

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the next few days Warsaw Pact forces areto maintain thoir preparednessossible inva-

sion.

Soviet Troop Rotation

The semiannual Soviet troop rotation is scheduled to begin next week in Eastern Europe and possibly next month in the western USSR. The rotation replacesuarter of Soviet conscripts and lowers^the preparedness of Soviet units for several months.I

If the Soviets are planning to invade Poland in the next few weeks, they might delay the rotation or use iteans to reinforce their units in Eastern Europe by retaining seasoned troops while bringing in new ones. They could, on the other hand,ormal rotation ln some units in the forward area whilo making special arrangements for those earmarked for an invasion. Tho hoavy air and rail movements associated with the rotation will likely make it more difficult to detect preparations for intervention. 1

Plea for Moderation

ecent interviewatholic newspaper, Walesa said that those in the union who still favorshould step asido. de said that the union would lose support if it pressed too hard for further concessions and that the union should concentrate on implementing tho agreements that have already been reached, including the enactment of new legislation. Walesa said that the union already was working closely with members of the parliament on such measures.

Walesa may have difficulty convincing the entire union leadership to accept his moderate lines. Union hardliners probably still resent the terms of thesettling the incident in Bydgoszcz and are impatient

to press other demands. Walesa un-loubredly will tryhis argument for moderation by pointing tothreat of martial law.

Brezhnev's Speech

President Brezhnev's brief remarks on Poland yoster-day in his address to the Czechoslovak party congress seem intended to undercut Westorn charges that the USSR isilitary intervention. His comment that

one must suppose" Polish Communists will rebuff the enemies of socialism suggests that the Soviets are also still hoping, but without much confidence, that the Kania

regime will take decisiveas the imposition of martialstem the liberalisation process.

As in his speech to the Soviet congress in February, Brezhnev avoided the harsh rhetoric characteristic of tha Soviet media and of Czechoslovak General Secretarypeech on Monday. He underscored Moscow's however, by comparing Polish events to the 'Pracue Spring" in Czechoslovakia1 MM

Brezhnev's remarks give no clear guide as to Soviet

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