Created: 4/6/1981

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The postponement of Jaruzelski'b major addressPolish parliament, originally scheduled for todayuntil Friday, would be consistent with suchor could merely indicate that the regime isdivided on what its next steps ahouldalso may have postponed his speechthat Soviet President Brezhnev would bethe Czechoslovak party congress. He may havenecessary toetter reading on Sovietattitudes.

We believe that the moderates ln the Polishwould "approve of martial law at this time, when tensions are declining, only under an explicit threat from Moscow that either the Poles do something or the Soviets will take matters into their own hands, fj

If the Poliah regime proceeds with martial law, we would expect them to seek some kind of priorwith Solidarity which, from the union's point of

view, would have to include promises that there would be no arrests or precipitous actions against che union. Barring such an understanding, Solidarity would most likely react to martial laweneral 9trlke that fould quickly develop into another major confrontation.

Moscow Maintains Media Pressure

Soviet media over the weekend continued to describe the situation in Poland in dire terms and to criticize the Kania regime for failing to take effective m

Pravda yesterday claimed that the foundations of socialism in Poland are still in "grave jeopardy" and that events there show the importance of "interaction" by the socialist countries to oppose "imperialist"to undermine the socialist cossaunlty. *Bj Ut

izveetia on Saturday reported that "creepinghas now reached its full height in Poland and has so far not met with "perceptiblehe article noted that hopes expressed inwhen party leader Kania tooka "speedyof mistakes have not come true and implicitly criticized the Polish Government for allowing newto be "wrestled" away^from it in last week's agreement with Solidarity.


Only Drezhnov To Attend Csech Party Conqroim

The failure of other Warsawarty loaders to join Brezhnev ln Prague for the start today of theparty congress indicates that there will be no Pact summit on Poland unless these leaders arrive later in the week. This pattern of attendancereak with precedent. At Eaat European party congresses that Brezhnev has attended since, all Pact party leaders except Romanian President Ceauaeacu have alsopresent. | |

Brezhnev probably will address the congress tommor-row and, accordingzechoslovak party official, will stay until tha end of the congress on Thursday or Friday. The Soviet leader met with Czechoslovak Ceneral Secretary Husak yesterday and might hold bilateral meetings laterhe heads of the other Pact delegations.

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