ALERT MEMORANDUM
POLAND
Mt believe that the Soviet leaders have been convinced byvident impotence of tha Polish party and government that military intervention is necessary. .They have set preporatione in motion and would have the capability to move in considerable foroe withinour*. Mt believe it likely, however, that they would Want to have stronger forces than they could move that quickly and that itwould take aboutays to have ther so divisions needed if the Poles were to resist. We do not know whether theyhaveinal deaieion to act, but this decision could come at any time and the deaieion could be to take the Poles by surprise. If this should be the ease, there oouldove this weekend. tM
The situation in Poland remains highly volatile and marked by great unpredictability. While there haa been atemporary reduction in tension following cancellation of the general strike scheduled for last Tuesday, pressures from ail ita tits within Solidarity for additional negotiations and for further governmentare strong. The conciliatory posture of the Kania-jaruzelski regime could beprobably is by hardline elements in Warsawack of political will to holt the disintegration ofocotuniot rule in Poland. AffJ
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Information acquiredpril indicates that the Soviets how are capable of interventionorce ofoivisions with little further warning. Whether the, Soviets believeorce is adequate is known only to them. Should Moscow decidearger force ofivisions or more, an additional preparation period would be required.
Original document.
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