POLAND: WARNING OF INTERVENTION

Created: 3/28/1981

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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POLAND: Warning of Intervention

The worsening crisis in Poland has markedly increased ohanoee that the Polish Government will vspose martial law ond that the Soviets might subsequently intervene rritilarlly. {MM

Our ability to provide warning varies significantly:

--Should the Poles Impose martial law, we wouldexpect to have no advance warning of theof Polish security forces and military units.

the Poles request immediate Soviet'to maintain martialimitedcould participate with little or no The risks to the Soviets wouldmall force might not able to cope with potentially rebelliousin the Polish Army and an aroused" "

major Soviet intervention ofr more divisions at the request of the Poles or solely at Moscow's Initiative would require large-scale preparations lastingoays and would provide usays of warning.

Preparationsajor intervention would exceed those of.last.December and would include an extensive rnobilization'of reservists and civilian vehicles and other large-scale logisticalactivity.

While disclaiming any Soviet intention of intervening in Poland "unless we are kicked into doingoviet--Embassy.official in BerlinBJBHBHBBftt yesterday that concern over the situation was quite high in Moscow. He contended that the Soviets view the confrontationSolidarity and the regime aa still withinbounds, but his attitude of "nervousness combinedwith uncertainty" appeared to belie this'. MB

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Pivotal Party Plenum

Many Poles, including leading members of Solidarity, expect that the Central Committee session tomorrow willhowdown between moderates favoring negotiations and conserva^ves favoring harsher measures, including martial

Party modoratos at 'he lower levels continue to press their demand for the punishment of those responsible for police brutality. Some have gone further tourge of partyconservatives who are thought to bereforms.

The leadership of the party organization in Gdansk,'generally considered one of the moat1liberal, on Thursday publicly called the use of police ingreat mistake" and warned that attempts to "arbitrarily" solve the current conflict could destroy the party's ties with society and set the rank and file against the party At least several other party organizations have expressed similar sentiments.

The Central Committee probably will be dividedissues, and even the party leadership cannothow the debate will turn out. ictory forprobably would leadecision tomartial law. Under present circumstances, suchcould severely split the already weakenedreduce its ability, touiding role inmartial law.

victory for the moderates would signal theto continue trying to resolve its disputesthrough political The moderatestempted to oust some of the leading conservativeshesitate out of fear of Soviet reaction. meeting could endtalemate, the pressure ofnationwide general strike beginning onthis an unlikely alternative.

Soviet Reaction

Moscow quickly condemned the str "paralyzing" the Polish economy.

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Talks continue

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Talks yesterday between Solidarity leader Walesa -and Deputy Prime Minister Rakowski again endedafter four hours, suggesting that the party leader snip remains.severely divided on its response todemands. During theare slated to resume today--Rakowski gaveopy of theofficial report on the incident at Bydgoszcz, which Walesa had pledged to study. The report mayhow seriously the regime intends to pursue its. negotiations with Solidarity. fMMj .

A report that absolves the police of all blamethe regime is not Intent on lesseningis, however,idespread expectation inreport will support Solidarity's position thatforce was uBed. This finding would be viewedPoles as an important initial step towardb demands.

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