National Intelligence Daily
Monday1
POLAND: Moscow Condemns Revisionists
Hoecov over theshoved eigne of continuedout the Poliih situation by attacking "revisieniGto" uithin the Polish party. At the earn time, negotiations beteeen Solidarity and the govermmt vent relatively aaoothly. The ailiiaryin and around Poland remins calm.
A TASS dispatch on Saturday claimed that there are "revisionists" in the Pollal. party determined toit, an indication thrtt Soviet Politburo memberalks with the Polish leadership havethe Kremlin's opposition to party liberalisation in Poland. The charge by Moscow also places added pressure on First Secretary Kania to oppose far-reaching changes at the Central Committee plenum on Wednesday.|
The term "revisionist" is one of the most serious charges that the Soviets can level against anotherregime, and Moscow used it to describeparty liberals before the invasion Tho TASS article attached this label to the Polish party's rank-and-file members, who have become Increasingly critical of the party leadership and) have begun to organize what they call "horizontal"aa the recent meeting in Torun--to make their voices heard.
There has been no direct mention of the meeting In Torun In the Soviet media, but TASS clearly was referring to it when It claimed that "revisionist fercee" under the guise of "no-called hortiontal structures" woreto undermine the party. TASS' contention that this activity is being conducted outelde party statutes is an implicit warning to the Polish Central Committee not to tamper with those statutes, as it seems certain to do, at the plenum. (
Talks Proceed Smoothly
Solidarity and the government yesterday concluded six months of talksraft trade union law that now will be published for public discussion. Although not
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M'BANON: New Syrian Attacks
Syrian attaoke over the weekend on Phalange position* in the mountain* northueet of Tahlahovcd ni-tini-ua' ability to threaten traditional Christian arsau.
The new clashes began on Saturday when Syrianby their Lebanese leftist allies, launchedoperations against Phalange positions along therldgallnes northwest of Zahlah. Syrianseized control of the hills closest to Zahlahago, forcing the Phalange out of theirabove the Be-kaa Valley. Occupation of thewill give the Syrians control of high groundthe hillsides and coastline of theas well aa complete domination of ZahlahBekaa Valley.
The new Syrian military moves not only restrict further Phalange access to th* Zahlah area but place Syrian or Syrian-supported troopsosition to carry any future fighting directly into the Christian areas. Syrian guns, moreover, would beosition to threaten the traditional Christian districts where many families of Phalange militiamen from Beirut have taken refugefighting in the capital. i
It is not
what Syrian Intentions are.
Syrians are. however.osition to expand
the conflict with the Phalange.
1
WEST GERMANY - SAL'DI ARABIA; Schmidt'* Visit
CAonosIkn* Sohmidthree-day vioit to SauK Arabia today to team Saudi condition* for broader bilateralncluding more balanced trade.
Bonn hopes to be able to reduce Host Germany's S3 billion trade deficit with Saudi Arabia. Last year Saudi Arabia provided about one-fourth of West Germany's crudo oil Imports, and the resulting deficit with Saudi Arabia amounted toercent of West Germany's current account deficit. I
Schmidt wants to increase experts by gaining for
West Germanarger share of the contractsby the Saudis for their ambitious developmentmoreover, probably will seek Saudicontinued loans to helpt Germany'sdeficit. Last year, Saudi Arabia accountedone-half of Bonn's foreign borrowing.
The Chancellor hopes to impress the Saudis that Bonn contributes to stability in the Middle East. He will stress West Germany's aid programs for Turkey and Pakistan and willillingness to consider limited arms sales to moderate Arab countries.
FRANCE: Election Results
results in France's presidential electionBet the stagelose final round in tvo ueeke that vill_ pit President Giooard against Socialist ohallinger Mitterrand.
Giscard fell belowpercent level he had hoped for but did better than late polls had indicated,that his recently revamped campaign ha* begun to take hold. Giscard will now turn to wooing Caulllst voters dissatisfied with his economic policies and his alleged lack of firmness in foreign affairs. Thewill need the support of naarly the entire center-right electorate to defeat Mitterrand.
Gaul list party leader Chirac's total strengthens his control of the Oaullists and will likely enable him to extractay inewGiscard in return for his second-round endorsement. The apparent success of Chirac's strong attacks against Giscard, however, may indicateignificant portion of the Gaulllatsuggest as much asight not follow Chirac's example in supporting the President in the second round.
Encouraged by his performance, Mitterrand will move to consolidate his support on the left, as well as aimmell but potentially decisive share of tAm camtar-rlght vote. He probably will avoid any negotiations with the Communist leaders but will reiterate his proatise to "practice socialism* if elected to attract Communist votes. He also will emphasiseransfer ofisl power to the non-Communist left would be healthy for French democracy--an argument that may appear more) credible to moderates and anti-Giscard Gaullists in light of the poor Communist showing.
Marchais' aetback--the worst Communist electoral showing in ASstiffen his resolve to undercut Mitterrand. Party leaders now are likely to instruct party members to abstain or vote for Giscard. They will try to scare moderate voters away from Mitterrand by demanding Communist ministers in his eventual government and perhaps by encouraging^minor violence during May Day celebrations on Friday.
international : Weak Cobalt. Market
Declining demand in the Free World for cobalt is undercutting efforts by Zaire and Zambia to control th* market. The two countries account forercent of non-Comnumiat cobalt production and supplyercent of US needs. Zaire has unilaterally reduced its priceer pound, violating its agreement with other cobalt exporters, p-
With cobalt inventories at record levels, spot prices could droper pound by the end ofeaker pound demand for cobalt will remain sluggish because of conservation and substitution resulting from high prices. Despite the market's movement from shortage to oversupply, however, the West remains vulnerable to supply disruptions because of domestic instability in Zaire and Zambia. i
CUBA-USi Refugee Problems
Havana's decision to forceuban refugees co-return to the US may be an attempt to engage the US in talks on the emigration issue. There have been several indications in recent weeks that Havana i3 seeking to resume the dialogue that broke down last January. The Castro regime believes that the establishmentegularized flow of refugees to the US would serveafety valve for domestic discontent. The return of the refugees does not indicate the beginningew sealift similar to the massive exodus of last year.
Theubans originally came to the US by way of the Mariel sealift but returned to the island lastand were immediately imprisoned. The refugees claim that morether "Marielista" returnees are being held and that tho Cuban Government plans to deport them over the next few days, f
zt xprn nisi
SPECIAL ANALYSIS
SOUTH ArmCA: The Parliamentary Election
The ruling national Party will have no troubleeeping victory when South Africa'a all-white electorate goes to the polls en Wednesday. The nationalists retain their oolid base in the dominant Afrikaner aenmmity and shouldignificant orossover vote from Snglish speakers. Concernotential an-eervative baoklaeh to his cautious efforts at relaxing the apartheid system, however, has led Prime Minister Botha to emphasise the li*rite of hie plans for racial reform and toawkishpcltoy line. The stance Botha has taken during the co/vpaign and the poeteleation problems he is likely to have with the national Party's right wing will limit hie room for maneuver on raoial poli-oies, Hamibia. and other issues of concern to the US.
sotha, who haa never before led the National Partyeneral election, isolitical mandate of his own. He came to power8 as the Nationalists' compromise choice to take over as party and government leadercandal over misuse of funds by theDepartment forced John Vorster to resign. Resistance to his racial reforms from the National Party's right wing ham pre van tad Botha from consolidating; his authority.
Along with most of Southillion whites, Botha is opposed to granting significant political rights to th* country'sillion black*. Aa Prim* Minister, howover, he has allied himself with reform-mindedin pushing cautious proposals forimited political role to the soreillion Coloreds and Asians and easing some of the social and economic restrictions on blacks. Rightwing Nationalists believe that Botha's proposals risk undermining the whole system of white control,
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t
Other Parties
Four other parties, three of which are fightingexistence, are contesting the election. TheFederal Party, representingecame the officialwinningeats in the last election. It isopposition party and advocates dialogueand movementystem of multiracial.
The New Republic Party, whicharrowlyamong English speakers in Natal Province,parliamentary seats in the last election. Sinceplan for limited racial reform has begun to lookidentical to Botha's reform program, and itsslipped.
The Herstigte Nasionale Party, founded byAfrikaner politicians who splitants to strengthen the Alhough it has run in three previousparty is looking to win Its first
The National Conservativeew, smallAfrikaner grouping, has tried to stake outposition between the Nationalists andNasionale Party.
L/ mpirr
ITOl
The Campaign ana Its Outcome
By South African standards, the campaign hasbland. The English-speaking parties havepressed to find safe ground on which to attackand the National Conservative Partylittle headway at attracting disgruntled Only the Herstigte Nasionele Party has wagedcampaign, adding heat to some political rallieson white fears that Botha is setting up a
The Nationalists haveactically saf have portrayed themselves as defending thea "total Communist onslaught." The recentKozambique and Angola were launched with an eyeelections.
Domestically, they have put their own feud about racial policy on ice and have tailored their treatment of this central issue with an eye to provincial politics. Nationalist candidates in politically moderate Capo Province, Botha's home base, have praised the Prime Minister's approach to race relations. Botha's name or reform efforts have scarcely been mentioned in the con-servativo Afrikaner heartland of the Transvaal. I
Botha, however, has adjusted portions of themanifesto dealing with racial policy inopinion poll indicationsonservative trendoverall electorate. In the process, he has madecommitment to the black homelands policy and histo one-man,
The Nationalists will win tho election by amay pad their parliamentary majority by capturingseats from the English-speaking parties. TheParty, however, is bound to cut into thetotal vote, particularly in the Transvaal,ultraconaervatives might even win a
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Botha, nonetheless, willersonal,push ahead quickly with plans to give Colored*some parliamentary representation. Onceof the campaign are past, however, theof the National Party will resume its effortsBotha's reform Initiatives,
A hied count of sure winners among Nationalist can-diaatus indicatesill be little change in the three main philosophical groupings within the partyi the small but vocal group of raodernlzers aligned with Botha; the larger rightwing group guarding the status quo; and the solid middle bloc whose members shift to the left or right doponding on the issue. i
Prospects
The elections thus are unlikely to improve thefor significant racial reform in South Africa. By clarifying the limits to his commiOtent tc racial reform during the campaign, Botha may have alienated even those moderate blacks who until now have been arguing that the Prime Minister bahance to sell his reform pro-
gram to the white community. I
the foreign policy arena, the hardlinecampaign rhetoric and the recent raids into Mozambique and Angola have already stiffened the determination of black African governments to press for UN sanctions over the Namibia issue and have otherwise soured prospects for any easing of regional tension.
Original document.
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