PRELIMINARY MATERIALS ON CANCUN SUMMIT

Created: 6/1/1981

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

CONFIDENTIAL KEY CONCERNS OF CANCON SUMMIT PARTICIPANTS

Background Note

report Is Intended to be an up-to-date reference to the key concernsheads of state or government wN> have been Invited to theon North-South economic cooperation and development. Ita description of events leading up to the summit,atrixknown country positions on key topics likely to be discussed,brief description of the key issues, andet of country sheetsin greater detail the poUtical and economic circumstanceseach participant'seviewing this material, the readerto remember that no formal agenda has, as yet, been set forThus, the positions presented here must be seen againstof considerable flux In the direction that the dbcussi mispursue. To maintain the best current statement of countryto thejpancun Summit, we Invite comments and suggestions from

Origins of theCfocun

Inormer West German Chancellor Willy Brandt announced that he was Inaugurating an Independent Commission on International Development Issues" to examine "the grave global Issues arising from the economic and social disparities of the world community and to suggest ways of promoting adequate solutions to the problems involved in development and in attacking absoluterie Commission was composedntentionally known economists, politicians, and other experts who

eport of the Brandt Commission stated!

We believe that an essentialouldummit meeting

with leaders from both Industrialized and developingummit should be limited to someeaders whonsure fair representation of major world groupings, to enable

Initiatives and concessions to be thrashed out with candor and' . .

boldness, jkfg.

The llmlted-pertlclpetlon summit was meant toew focus on global problems andew Impetus for futurehe report acknowledged that th* summit dTseusslons could not be binding upon those countries not attending,xpressed th* hop* thateeting could enhance the prospects forfutoreagtiorLon

I

. North-South Issues.

Momentum behind the Brandt Commission's limited summit concept was slow to develop.s due both to the primacy of ongoing debates In the United Nations on the global economic order, and lack of enthusiasmummit on the pert of several major developed countries, including the United States. Tho General Assembly held lta Eleventh Special Session In0 toomprehensive economic development and cooperation program called the Global-Negotiations. The Global Negotiations were designed to generate an integrated frameworkrnatlonal economic relations for, 'with special emphasis on the needs of developing

countries.

The sneelal session became deadlocked over procedures and agenda, however, and failed toecisionramework for the Global Negotiations. The United States, Joined by Heat Germany and the United Kingdom, opposed the text favored by the Group ofthe developing countries' UN eaueus) been use It could have reduced the autonomy of sueh UN specialised agencies as the World Bank and International Monetary

p-ad. fJB

Theh Session of the General Assembly then took up the some of the CHohal Negotiation! when it convened in mid-September. The president of the General Assembly, Ruedlger von Wechmar,pecial Interest in the Global Negotiations andelect group of UN Ambassadors to meet frequently as 'friends of the president" In an effort to hammer out differences and work toward an acceptable agenda and procedure. Von Wechmar had hoped that his "friends" would be able toa compromise by the third week In November. Well before Von Kechmar's deadline, however, It became apparent that no agreement would be reached and that the momentum behind the Global Negotiations had dissipated. 4al

h eertv October, duringhe General Assembly, Austrian Foreign Minister Pane recalled the Brandt Commission proposalorth-South summit and

tUMIif.NIIAl,

suggested that thb device could rekindle Interest in the deadlocked North-South debate.ummit had already been discussed duringstate visit to Austria by Mexican President Lopez PortOlo.

Shortly after Pahr's speech, Rretsky Invitedoreign ministers to meet in Vienna to discussorth-South summit. Attending the meeting In November were the foreign ministers, or their representatives, from Algeria, Austria, Canada, the Federal Republic of Germany, France, India, Mexico, Nigeria, Tanzania, Venezuela, and Yugoslavia. Although thai group endorsed the summit In principle,ould not be reached on the specific details- of- the agenda and timing. Theepresentatives, therefore, agreed to reconvene in 1

Tne March meeting established the following ground rulesorth-South

summit)

The summit wDl take placectober in Cancun, Mexico.

fcwiutioru wmi ted to the leaders ofountries, including the United States, USSR, China, and other industrialised and developing countries (see attached

A formal preparatory meeting wUl be held tn Mexicougust for all countries whose lenders have agreed to ii item) the summit.

Insteadormal agenda there willdiscussion ^artwork" that broadly addresses the Issues of trade, food and agriculture, energy, and International finance and monetary relations.

The meeting win be political bi nature and Informal in atmosphere! there is no intention to engage In lanrotUtlons nor ttt tm? the summit to the Global

Kegotlatioos at the UN.

Because there win be only one preparatory session for the summit, North-South Wear/ will be dlftuased at the various multilateral meetings that will talc* pate* the abt months preceding the Cancan Summit. In particular, th* Caracas meeting

. " confidential

Countries Invitedctober Cancun Surrmi t

Industrialized Countries

Austria

Canada

United Kingdom United States

'* Wast Germany

Likely Representative

Chancellorrime Minister Trudeau President Mitterrand Prime Minister Suzuki Prime Minister Falldin Prime Minister Thatcher President Reagan Chancellor Schmidt .

Developing Countries

India

PhilIppines Saudi Arabic

iunknown Prer_resident Marcos Prince Fahd

Algeria

Ivory Coast

Nigeria

Tanzania

President President President-President

Houphouet-Boigny Shagrl Nycrere

Amerlcat

Brasil Guyana Mexico Venezuela

President PIgueiredo President Burnham President Lopez Portlllo President Herra Camplns

% Others

USSR Yugoslavia

Zbao Ziyang Chairman Brezhnev President Sergej Kraigher

" original co-sponsor country

CONFlfUNTIAL

Economic Cooperation Among Developing9 May) and the Ottawa Summit of the "Big Seven" industrialized1 July) have been viewed as atrategy-planning opportunities for the major developing and industrialized states,fB

The Caracas meeting wes attended by S3 LDCs and was the largest meeting of its kind to date. The final report of the conference reaffirmed the need for the LDCs to cooperate among themselves on development Issues. They were apparently unable,

however, toonsensus on substantive or procedural issues to be addiessed at

Design of the Cancun Matrix

The Cancun matrix that followsrame of reference to the key concerns ofeeds of state (excluding the United States) who have been invited to the Cancun Summit. The matrix provides information on each country's likely position toward

several key North-South issues that may be discussed at the summit. Because thetopics for the Cancun Summit will not be determined untilugust preparatoryancun, the topics Included in the matrix correspondist suggested by President Lopez PortDlo, the summit's host.

The'matrix lists the likely representatives of theountries according to country grouping: nine developed countries andess developed countries, which are further subdivided Into noo-OPEC andCs. We have retained references to Bangladesh because it Is not known yet how the assassination of President Zlaur Rahman and the attempted coup wQl affect its participation In the summit. Por each country, four topic columns and one comment column ere provided. The topics Include international trade, financial and monetary matters, food and agricultural production, and energy.s used to denote those topic areas that are likely to be of key concern

* Seachedule of meetings that will take place prior to the

CONFIDENTIAL

to each country. The comment column briefly summarizes each country's position on the key topics and notes others that may be brought up. aW Key Issues

International Trade tn Raw Materials. Since the, LDCs have sought new policies to govern international trade in agricultural products and Industrial raw materials. Their two key goals arc stabilization of commodity prices and assurance of steady growth in export earnings over time. The principal means advocated by LDCs for achieving these ends are agreements between producers and consumers to permit orderly, predictable price increases for individual commodities, the establishment oftockpiles to buffer the supplies of commodities, and preferential access to, country markets,

Developed countries, on the other hand, perceive unstable commodity earnings-being asunction of domestic LDC production probldms as of demand-Induced price fluctuations.esult, they emphasize the need for balance of payments support In bod crop and mining years and tend to favor compensatory financing (which provides balance of payments support for shortfalls in foreign exchange earnings Judged beyond tbe control of the LDC)ay to solve the problem. At the same time, none of the

developed countries have wanted to be cast in the unfavorable position of being unwilling

to talk about the possibility of agreements on particular commodities, ^fff

Finance and. Monetary Matters. LDCsigh priority on enhancing the responsiveness of the International monetary system to their economic growth and development needs. They assert that thb can be accomplished in part by expanding the IMF's compensatory finance facility, modifving the practice of condttionallty In the IMF to reduce or eliminate many of the stipulations Imposed on countries when seeking balance of payments assistance, and Increasing the LDCs* voting strength in such multilateral Institutions as the IMF and World Bank. mm

Developed countries agree that the monetarymportant to thc smooth

CONFIDENTIAL

.operation of the LDCs and world economv. They favor expansions In the resources of financial and monetary Institutions, particularly when funded with surplus OPEC dollars. However, the developed countries support the existing autonomy of the IMP and World Bank as the proper organizations to handle financial issues and oppose any major change In the decision-making power of these institutions that would dilute the Influence of th* Industrialized states. |^

Pood -and Agricultural Production. Four main themes have emerged In North-South discussions to date on international cooperation for the development and diversification of agricultural production: (a) the transfer of financial resources from

the developed countries to supplement mobilization of LDC domestic resources, (b) I

transfer and adaptation of technology to the needs of Individual LDCs and regions, (c)

support for the Implementation of "national agricultural development strategies",

t

Including such goals as improved food storage and distribution facilities In developing countries, and (d) th* establishment of an effective basis' for world food security, mcJuding food aid and emergency food reserves.

The separate food Issues draw different levels of support. The LDCs actively favor any proposal thatystem of international grain reserves, encourages self-sufficiency in agricultural production, and protects against food being usedeapon by the major developed country exporters. Developed countries, however, are generally opposed to any world food security system that does not spread costs equally among exporters and importers, or that would Jeopardize th* developed countries' own large food export earnings.

Energy. These issues center on the LDCs* growing awareness of the scarcity of world petroleum supplies, the worsening balance of payments positions of oil-importing LDCs, and the energy requirements to meet LDC economic growth and development targeta. The LDCs are seeking effective measures fori (a) the conservation and rational use of energy, (b) the exploration and development of new and renewable as well aa

coNFtrymnAL

CONHnENTIAL

convenlional sources of energy, and (c) provision of financlil snd technical assistance by

the International community to those oU-lmportlng countries most adversely affected by

rising energy prices.

The energy Issue Is prominent in the North-South dlaloguo. It reflects not only the

conflicts of Interest between the bx*ustrlaUzed and the developing countries, but also

between the OPEC and non-OPEC LOC*. The developing countries have In the past

contended that th* Industrialized countries are energy wastrels, and that adequate

energy for the LDCs own eeonomlo development can, for th* most part, eomti only from

decreased developed country energy use. The developed countries have countered that

many of the non-OPEC LDCs" energy problems are caused in large measure by OPEC

policies and that the non-OPEC LDCs are attacking th* wrong targets for the sake of

Third World solidarity, fa contrast, OPEC has denied all responsibility for the other

LDCs* economic difficulties and has contended that its policies are meant to getfair

return from th* industrialized countries, which ar* responsible for the LDCs' poor terms

of trade. OPEC has been able to use Its oil strength to promote LDC demands that are

unae-eptable to the developed countries, while at the same time avoiding most price and

supply concession* on oil sales to the LDCs, (aaV

Country Notes,

Bach country's position toward th* various topics that are likely to be discussed at the summit Is motivatedariety of factors that are unique to the individual country. Th* country notes that follow th* matrix explain In greater detail the poUtical and economic circumstances that affect each country's stance. For each sheet of country notest

0 Th* Political Factors section outlines each country's general position in the North-South dialogue, expectations of what can he accomplished al th* summit, leadershiparious North-South lora. and any other poUtical conditions thatountry* petition.

r

CON'FliFNTIAL

Economic Indicators section describes each country's relative standard of living, direction and commodity composition of foreign trade, relative debt position as measured by the disbursed, medium- and long-term debt end ratio of debt service to exports of goods and services (LDCsnd flow of ODA-type contributions to finance development. Unless otherwise stated, aU economlo data referl

Other Cancim Activities

Tha Caneun Summit willare opportunity for heads of state to meet and discuss important bilateral Issues on such topics as security, trade, and foreign relations. Because the official meeting Is relatively unstructured, participant! wDl llkelv comeull plate of potential topics in addition to those on North-South points. With the meeting nearly five months away, few. If any, of the participants have fcumulated plans for bilateral talks. Issues wiU likely evolve and be ranked In Importance as summit plans gaL We will be looking for any signs which suggest that the participating countries see the summit as something moreorum for North-South

ivsMnw4

CONFyreNTIAL

AUSTRIA (Chancellor Bruno KREISKY)

POLITICAL FACTORS

On North-South "ii"'

o Austria hasuiet participant In the North-South dialogue but tries to be sympathetic to thc needs of the LDCs.

o Krelsky views North-South Issueshilosophical perspective of Justice and equity but has few pragmatic solutions to offer.

On Cancun'i "

0 Krelsky, one of the original co-chairmen. Is phnosophically committed to the summit but does not expect any concrete results.

o Krelsky accepted the co-chairman Job partly out of considerationhis close personal and political friend, Willy Brandt/

o Kreiskyertain amount of personal prestige on the success of the summit but winprobably not be an active participant,;

Important

ADB

1Inter-Amerienn Development Bank

BFTAEuropean Free Trade -

OECD

IEAmtemational Energy

Producer-consumer associations for coffee and cocoa.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

QNP Per

Growth in Real%

'

Ot total exports5ent to LDCs. The major LDC partners Includedndhe main exports were machinery and transport, iron and steelextiles and, and

Of total Imports5ame from LDCs. The primary LDC suppUers includedaudindL Leading Imports were machinerv and transport,,, textiles and, and

rONPIfENTIM.

yt

aim

CONFBENTiAC "

SWEDEN

(Prime Mlnlslcr Thorbjom FALLDIN) POLITICAL FACTORS

On Norlh-Souih Issuesi

o Traditionally sympathetic to the problems of the Third World, especially food and health issues.

o ommitment by industrialised states to increase official development assistance (ODA).

o Sees North-South issues moreoral obligation on the part of the richer countries to help poorer nations.

On Cancun Summit!

o Sweden will likely call for the industrialized countries to increase ODA toand reduce the conditions attached to IMF loans.

o Also Interested In population problems in thc Third World and may bring. matter forward for

Important

Asian Developmentv.

IADBInter-American Development

BETAEuropean Free Trade Association * ECD

IKAInternational Energy Agency AIOECAssociation of Iron-Ore Exportingroducer-Consumer associations for cocoa, coffee, and sugar.

ECONOMIC

GNP Per

Growth in Real.:.

Trade:

Of total exports9ent to LDCs. The major LDC partners included Saudindhe main exports were machinery and transport, iron andnd

Of total Imports4ame from LDCs. The major LDC suppliers included Saudindeading Imports were machinery and transport,, and iron and

Nat Disbursements of ODA,million

ODA as Share

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL

YUGOSLAVIA (President Sergej KRAIGHER)

POLITICAL FACTORS

On North-South Issues!

o An original founder of the Nonaligned Movement IN AM).

o Sees Itself allied With the Third World even though Ita probloms are more olosoly associated with those of industrialized countries.

o Strong supporter of the UN Global Negotiations proposal.

On Cancun .

o Primarily Interested inigh profilehird World leader,

especially after Tito's death."

o Sees Its roleoderator and bridge between North and South and also between East and West,

Important

biter-American Development Bank

CUBACouncil on Mutual Economic

OECDLimited

Intergovernmental Council of Copper Expert ine Countries

Producer-consumer associations for bauxite, cocoa, ooffee, sugar, and On.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

GNP Per

Growth in Real

Tradei

Of total exportsent to LDCs. The majorndhe main, transport, electrical machineryclothing and footwear

Of total Imports1ame from LDCs. Tho major LDC suppliers Includedndanding imports were non-electrical, petroleum and, transportnd iron and

Net Disbursements of ODA,million

ODA as Share of

COM* IAL

ALGERIA (President, CoL Ohadll BENDJEDID)

POLITICAL PACTORE-

CTI North-South Issues:

o Algeria sees OPECodel for economic development and action against tho industrialized countries.

o Algeria was the, original sponsor of the Global Negotiations concept at tho United Nations and prefers to carry on North-South discussions at the UN where the South can control the discussion.

On Caneun Summit:

o Algeria has been somewhat rehietant to participate In the sum mi; because It fears that it win bypass the Global Negotiations issue.

o Algeria will probably noi stress tha substance of the discussions at Caneun but will seek toommitment to launch the Global Negotiations as soon as possible.

Important

Arab Fund for Economic and SocialArab' MonetaryDevelopment*

OAPBC

AIO ECAssociation of Iron-Ore Exporting Countries.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

ONP Per

Growth in Real

Agricultures Share of

Trade:

Of total exportsSent to theoo West Cermany, ando Italy. The main exports werend natural

Of total Imports6ame fromrom Italy, androm the US. Leading imports were en pita Iand foodstuffs

TotalbDUon

Debt Service

Nat Receipts of ODA,million

l.

BANGLADESH "

(Representative Unknown)

POLITICAL FACTORS*

On North-South

o Bangladesh sees itselfpokesman for the poorest, least developed countries (LLDCs) whose primary concerns are basic human needs.

o Bangladesh is an exporter of agricultural commodities and favors programs that will stabilize markets and earnings of primary commodities.

On Cancun Summit:

o Bangladesh can be expected to stress the unique problems of the LLDCs that stress famine relief and grants-in-aid, and that take account of the poor infrastructure and low absorptive capacities of the poorest nation::.

Important

ADBAsian Development Bank Islamic Development Bank

International Sugar

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

GNP Per

Growth in Real

Agriculture's Share of39%

Trade:

Of total exportsent to the US,o the USSR,o Italy,o the UK ando Pakistan. The main exports were jutend raw.

Of total Importsame from therom Japan,rom the UK,rom West Germany,rom Singapore, androm China. Leading imports were capital, petroleum and,nd fertilizer.

Totalbillion

Debt Service21%

Net Receipts of ODA,billion

It is not yet known how the assassination of President Zlaur Rahman will affect Bangladesh's participation In tlw Cancun summit.

CONFIDENTIAL

CONF^ENTIAL

BRAZIL (President Joao FICUEIREDO)

POLITICAL FACTORS

On North-South issues:

o Brazil, one of the most industrialized LDCs, is concerned with what it sees as growing protectionism in the industrialized states against LDC industrial exports such as stool and textiles.

razil, because of its industrial program and acute dependence on imported Oil* is concerned over the adverse effects of high energy prices and the increasing financial drain caused by energy imports.

o Brazil has borrowed heavily from both multilateral and privateand although it has been able to manage high dett andcosts, is anxious toor eased investment'

On Caneun Summit!

o Figueiredo will likely stress the need for industrialized nations to open their economies to LDC exports as one way of .attracting increased private investment.

o Brazil may also call upon the OPEC nations to increase direct investment instead of recycling petrodollars through private or multilateral lending institutions.

Important

nter-American Developmentatin American Free Trade Association Producer-consumer essociatlns for coffee, cocoa, and sugar.

ECONOMICYT

GNP Per

Growth in Real

Agriculture's Share of11%

Tradet

Of total exports0ent to theo theo LAFTA ando West Germany. The main exports were manufactured,,, ironnd

Of total imports0ame fromrom the US,rom Saudi Arabia, ondrom West Germany. Leading imports were,,nd nonferrous

Totalbillion

Debt Service60%

Not Receipts of2 million

CONFIDENTIAL

f

CHINA

(Premier ZHAO/ POLITICAL FACTORS

On North-South Issues:

o China sees Itselfeader of the Third World, hutelativethe North-South

China believes' that the Industrialized countries must make oncessions in trade and finance in order to allow LDCs to become self reliant, which they see as the primary prerequisite to economic growth.

o While critical of the Industrialized states of the West, Chira views the current tension between North and South as providing political opportunities for the Soviet Union to increase its influence in the LDCs. - :

On Cancun Summit* j - .

. China sees its participation as confirming Its statusajor participant In the North-South dialogue.

o China will urge the industrialized states to make concessions, and wUlcritical of the Soviet Union's attitude'towards the summit anddevelopment in

O China wm urge North-South cooperationotent deterrent of Soviet expansionism. Important Memberships:

Chine does not belong to any major economic organizations outside of the United Nations and Its specialized agencies.

ECONOMICPer

Growth in Real -; ;

Agriculture's Share of31%

Trade:

Of total exportsBent to Hongo Japan,o the US, ando Wost Germany. The main exports9 were,,, andK

Of total Imports4ame fromrom the US,rom West Germany androm Hong Kong. Leading Imports9 were machinery and, iron and,, and

Totalbillion

Debt Service

Net Receipts of ODA,million

CONCKENTlrU..

GUYANA

. Burn ham)

POLITICAL FACTORS

On North-South Issuesi

o ajor participant In North-South discussions.

o Leans toward the more radical LDCs which advocate sweeping reform ofglobal economic

On Caneun Summit:

o Food and energy are prominent domestic concerns which may be reflected fn Burnham's participation at the summit.

o ajor bauxite producer, may also support commodityproducers or between producers and consumers which would

Important Memberships!

CARICOMCaribbean Community and Common -IADBInter-American Development Bank Lome Convention with the EC

Jnternatlonal Bauxite Association- TJLADELatin American Energy Association.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

GNP Per

Growth in Real

Agriculture's Share of

Trade:

Of total exportsent to theoanada,o Japan, ando Jamaica. The main exports were,,nd rice

Of total importsame from therom Trinidad androm the UK,rom Canada, androm Japan. Leading Imports were, machinery and transport, and.

Totalbillion

Debt Service27%

Net Receipts of ODA,million

CONPl/JENTIAL

NTI AL

INDIA

(Prime Minister Indira GANDHI) POLITICAL FACTORS

On North-South Issues:

o India, like Brazil and Mexico, is concerned about growing protectionism in the industrialized countries against Third World industrial exports such as steel and textiles.

- India has emphasized the need for external financing of industrial projects but favors Increased multilateral lending with fewer conditions instead of bilateral or private Investment which it sees as too manipulative.

On Caneun Summit:

o Gandhi has not committed herself to attending the summit but If she does she can be expected to be highly critical ot the Industrialized countries.

o Gandhi, concerned over recent IMF/World Bank loans to China, probably willommitment by the Industrialized states to increase funding of multilateral development banks and reduce the conditions attached to multilateral loans.

Important

ADBAsian Development

AIOECAssociation of Iron-Ore Exporting Countries' ANRPC j- Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries Producer-consumer associations for coffee, sugar and tin.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

GNP Per

Growth in Real

Agriculture's Share of '

Tradet

Of total exportsent to theoo the USSR, ando the UK. The main exports9 were Iron and steel, leather) and

Of total Imports6ame from therom Iraq,rom the USSR androm the UK. Leading imports9 were, ediblend

Totalbillion

Debt Service15%

g

Net Receipts of ODA,billion

CONL

-

IVORY COAST {President Felix HOUPHOUET-BOIGNY)

POLITICAL

On North-South Issues:

o The Ivory Coast has continuously stressed the need for secure and Increased revenues for the LDCs from agricultural exports.,

o The Ivory Coast shares the concern that continued conditions of poverty in the Third World present opportunities for Soviet expansion into these areas, directly or through surrogates.

o Houphouet-Boigny has never placed any stock. In international forums or regional organizations where North-South issues are discussed and prefers bilateral arrangements with Industrialized countries.

On Cancun

o Houphouet-Boigny has never attended multilateral conferences, such assummits, because of his personal conviction that no concrete resultsreached at these meetings; there is yet no Indication that he Intendsthe Cancun summit* ''.Zi

o The- Ivory Coast, If It attends, can be expected to stress the needcommodity preferences and price

Important

African Development Bank

ECOWASEconomic Community of West African States Lome Convention with the ECProducer-consumer associations for coffee end cocoa

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

GNP Per

Growth in Real

Agriculture's Share of

Tradei

Of total exportsillion)ent too the Netherlands,o the US. The main exports were,,, and petroleum

Of total importsillion)ame from France,rom Japan,rom the US, androm West Germanv. Leading imports were capital, petroleum and,, and iron and steel

Totalbillion

Debt Service

Net Receipts of ODA,million

confiJential

MEXICO (President Jose LOPEZ PORTILLO)

POLITICAL FACTORS

On North-South Issues:

o Mexico, one of the Newlv Industrializing Countries, has been active In promoting the need for trade preferences and increasing productive investment.

o Mexico and Venezuela are co-founders of OLADEthe Latin American Energy Agencva regional energy cooperation program to aid the non-oil LDCs. 1

On Caneun Summit:

o Lopez Portillo hasreat deal of personal and political prestige onof the summit and sees itajor accomplishment of his term

o Lopez Portillo probably will play the role of the host and moderator at the summit and refrain from taking an active pert In substantive discussions,-except to promote his world energy coopera tion pcOgTttiTiy

o As host and moderator, Lopez Portillo can be expected to stress the needunderstanding between North ond South nnd emphasize thean atmosphere of cooperationree flow of Ideas among the

Important Memberships*

IADBInter-American Development Bank

LAFTALatin American Free TradeLatin American Energy Association

Producer-Consumer associations for coffee, cocoa, and sugar.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

GNP Per,

Growth In Real

Agriculture's Share

Trader

Of total exports9ent to theo Europe,o Japan. The main exports were, manufactured,nd

Of total Imports8ame from therom Europe, androm Japan. Leading Imports were machine, Iron and,nd

Totalbillion

Debt Service

Not Receipts ofillion

NIGERIA (President Alhadj Shehu SHAGAR1)

POLITICAL .

On North-South Issues:

o Nigeria, one of two Black African members of OPEC, has over-emphasized Its petroleum Industry in recent yeers and is anxious to secure financing for agricultural development, which has fallen behind.

o Nigeria favors export stabilization programs for primary products.

o The current oil glut has temporarily reduced Nigeria's export revenues and, if prolonged, may force them to borrow from multilateral or privnte lending Institutions and curtail economic development and Industrialization.

On Cancun

o Shagarl wilt stress Nigeria* role es an economic leader In Africa and speak In general terms of the need for increased cooperation from the North.

o Shagarl may also point out Nigeria's willingness to use Its oil for politicalespecially by its resolve to seek an oil embargo of South Africa.

Important Memberships:

Atrlean Development Bank

conomic Community of West African States

Lome Convention with the EC

OPEC

Producer-consumer associations for cocoa, coffee, sugar, and tin. ECONOMIC INDICATORS

GNP Per

Growth In Real

Agriculture's Share of18%

Trade:

Of total exports4ent to the USent to EC. The main exports were petroleum andnd

Of total imports0ame from therom the US,rom Japan. Leading Imports were capital, consumer, and.

Totalbillion

Debt Service

Net Disbursements of ODA,million

ODA as Share of%

CONTINENT] Al.

CONFIDENTIAL

PHILIPPINES (President Ferdinand MARCOS)

POLITICAL FACTORS

On North-South Issues:

The Philippines hasairly active but moderate participant in North-South issues, primarily concerned with the stabilization of revenues from . primary commodity exports. .

o Manila9 and will likely become thethe Common Fund, the ON commodity scheme. Both these have givenadded prestige among the

o The Philippines has shown particular interest in ways to increase investment from private industry or other sources that do not attach thc economic conditions of IMF/World Bank loans. . ".

On Caneun...

. o Marcos sees himselfepresentative of the ASEAN countries and has begiai canvassing those capitals on possible issues to discuss.

o Marcos probably is interested in discussing the ways In which multinationals and CPEC countries can contribute money and technology for specific Third World projects, bypassing the World Bank and other multilateral development

Important ;

ASSANAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations ADBAsian Development Bank

Producer-consumer organizations for cocoa and sugar.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

GNP Per

Growth in

Agriculture's Share of

j

Of total exportsent to Japanent to the US. The main exports were,, coconut, and copper.

Of total importsame from thorom Japan,rom Saudi Arabia. Leading Imports were rawndS>).

Totalbillion

Debt Service

Net Receipts ofillion

iosiVTential

AL

. .. .

SAUDI

(Crown Prince FAHD)

POLITICALNorth-South

o Saudi Arabia supports LDC demands for Increased financial assistance and control but claims that the industrialized states must make the major concessions, not the OPEC states.

oSaudi Arabia is particularly sensitive to criticism from both industrialized and developing nations that it is not using its vast financial resources to aid the Third World as much as possible.

o Saudi Arabia claims that energy price and supply problems antwithin OPEC and not ln other multilateral forums.Cancun

o Saudi Arabia is particularly hesitant to attend the summitit will be singled out for criticism by both

o Saudi Arabia will be particularly supportive ofctions andsuch actionositive response to the existingsystem imposed by the Industrialized countries.

o Saudi Arabia win push to keep discussion from becoming Issue specific and wUl speak in generalities about tho need for increased concessions by the Industrialized countries. Important Memberships: OPEC OAPEC

Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development Arab Monetary Fund Islamic Development Bank

ECONOMIC=V;

ONP Per

Growth in Real. .

Agriculture's Share of

Of total exports1ent too theo France, ando Italy. The main export was

Of total imports3ame from theromrom UKrom West Germanv. Leading imports were machlnerv and transportnd.

OMon

Debt Service

Net Disbursements of ODA,bUllon

ODA es Shnro

L

FL*JEr

CONFIDENTIAL

TANZANIA (President Julius NYERERE)

CTORS

On North-South Issues i

o Nytrere advocates self-reliance as the path toward economic development in the LDCs, but believes that the current trade and financial svstems impose Western models of development that do not permit self-reliance to take place

o Tanzania has lobbied for Increased financial commitment from the Industrialized countries with fewer conditions attached.

o Tanzania has been especially critical of the Soviet Onion endhich It feels are especially inattentive to the ambitions of the LDCs.

On Caneuni

o Nyerere sees the mlnisummit as an opportunity to bring his somewhat dogmatic views directly to the leaders of the Industrialized and OPEC worlds.

o Nyerere nm not be deferred by attempts to point but the current economic problems of the West, but probably win be receptive to pledges of increased cooperation, especially in the areas of food, finance, energy, and the promotion of productive investment through joint government-private sector cooperation.

Important Memberships!

A I'DAfrican Development Bank Lome Convention with the EC International Coffee Organization

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

ONP Per

Growth In Real

/

Agriculture's Share

Tradei

Of total exportsent to theo the DS, ando Af?ea. Jhe main exports were, manufactured,, and

Of totalarn, from the EC,rom the Middle East, androm the US. Leading Imports were machinery and transport, Intermediate,, and

illion

Debt Service

Net Receipts of ODA,million

CONFIDENTIAL.

NTIAL

VENEZUELA (President Luis HERRERA Campins)

POLITICALNorth-South

'.- Believes international trading system isfavor of

o founder" of OPECi sees OPECode! for LDC producer organizations as way of increasing revenue for development. ;

o Believes LDCs need to cooperate with each other in order to ensure development; recently hosted conference on Economic Cooperation Among Developing Countries.

On Cancun Summit:

o Will likely stress need for bDC cooperation and deflect criticism of OPECLDCs by pointing to opportunities for cooperation betWeeh"liorrtnH

o Does not believe summit will have positive effects if discussionbogged down on specific

o Herrera will probably rely hevaily on his personaleconomic affairs, Manuel Guerrero, current Chairman ofofn New

Important

V. '; ::

OLADELatin American EnergyLatin American Free TradeIADBInter-American Development

Association of Iron-Ore Exporting Countries *

Producer-consumer associations for coffee and cocoa.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

ONP Per .

Growth In Real

Agricultures Share of

Trade:

Of total exports3ent to the USo the Netherlands Antilles. The main exports are petroleum and.

Of total imports4ame from the USrom Canada. Leading imports were machinery and transportnd.

Total$IL0 billion

Debt Service

Net Dtobursemonts of ODA,million

ODA as Share of

CONF^liNIiAL

APPENDIX A

MAJOR MEETINGS PRIOR TO CANCUN SUMMIT

May

ay

e

une

Juna June June Juna July July July August

ugust

eptember

eptember

eptemberctober

Cooperation Among Developing

Countriesigh Level Conferencearacas.

OECD Executive Committee Zn Special Session, Paris

t.

US/EC Consultations, Brussels

Preparatory Meeting, Ottawaancouver

Reagan/Lopex PoetAlioamp David

OECD North/South Group, Paris

TEA Ministerial, Paris

OECD Ministerial,

Summit Preparatoryttawa

Big Seven Summit, Ottawa *

OECD Horth/South Group (Provisional), Paxis

North-South Summit, 3rd Preparatory Meeting (Foreign Ministeraneun

U.N. Conference on New and Renewable Sources off Energy, Nairobi

U.N. Conference on Least Developed

rade and Developmentd Session, Geneva

OECD North/South Grouparis Bank/Fund Meetings, Waahington Generalh Session, New York Summit, Caneun

to'I

Original document.

Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:

CAPTCHA