Created: 6/20/1981

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Sov-'ma and fuliv. oupporte

USSR-POLAND: Polish Military Attitudes

of i'i* tenia'tiHtary oomand ia nowcJ


tftfi Paiica Militarylikrlu to rectal any target tiAlston.

The sources, members of the Intelligentsia, whohave good accass among Polish loaders, also said that Polish authorities havo now begun to calculate the sizeossible Soviet invasion force and the number of casualties that might rosult from such an operation.

Conjecture on an Invasion

sources believe that at leastoviet and Warsaw Pact combat divisions and additional support units would be nooded to invade, and the Polish leaders reportedly estimate there wouldotalolish and Soviet casualties. The authorities allegedly also believe that Soviet intelligence services oalculate the cost in livesuch higher level. There is no other evidence that the Poles have begun toossible invasion. WhM

We believe that some Pol^htroops wouldoviet intervention, buteport edly think it is likely that larger units up to division size would fight. They explained that senior-level Polish officers were alienated from Moscow because of tho letter the Soviets sent to tho relish Central They think tho military clearly indicated at last week's Central Committee plenum that it would not support any other leadership team In Poland. Mm%

Military officers who are members of the Central Committee did support Kania during last week's meeting, and party organizations within the military this week pledged support to tho Jaruzelski government. Kania attended one of those meetings and pointedly thanked tlie "comrades in uniform" for their invaluable aupport for the party and its lino of renewal. This support, he said, was of "great political importance."


Approved for



Soviet and East Gorman Cawm,

soviet nedie cowne-rar; and Pest Herman activity suggest that Moscow -nd it- allies continue to reserve judgment on how to deal with the Polish party congress

*ast Gormansuggest they have no illusions about rallvino

opposition within Poland to the renewal process. the East Germans are intent on revivingof making contacts with party officialsthe aim apparently ia only to be koptdevelopments there.

ng senior

miBerlin suggests that tho East Germane

do notarsaw Pact intervention before the

-rrtmcePrl"tsd notably strong criticism rrom other Eaat European medio of the Warsaw regime's

hniagainst "counterrevolutionaries,-

but have confined their own recent commentary to attacks

3SlWithin Solid-ri^within the Poliah eedia. Moacow has refrained from direct attacks upon the Polish leaders, and has oven accorded Kania and Jaruzelski moderately favorable television coverage. wwm

Moscow may be refraining from strong attacks in order to preserve the option of attempting sooner or later toorking relationship with the Polish loaders. They may also fearhriller media campaign would inflame anti-Soviet sentiment among the

aaalacir Soviet citizens

h.i*ntral Committee plenum will probably bo noie Monday. The Central Committee normally convenea at

*ftU time of year, and Poland is likely to bo a

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