Created: 6/9/1981

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POLAND: Central Committee Plenum

Supportmre and opporumU of reform probably will clash during the Central Committee plenum today, and thers could bs important changes in the party leadership. Mm)

The Soviets and thair hardline aympathixers within the Polish party have been seekinghowdown. The Soviet letter over the weekend to the Polish Centralreportedly accused party chief Kania and Prime Hinlater Jaruselaki of being incapable of dealing with counterrevolution, losing control of the mase media, and lacking firmneaa in dealing with antl-Soviat incidents. Polish Deputy Prime Minister Rakowski has confirmed that the Sovietsetter but aaid it waa not an (nana

Moscow may harbor lingering hopes that itspressure will encourage Polish conservatives in the Central Committee to counter the reformists. On the other hand, the Soviets may only beinal confirmation of their worst fears that the reform process is out of control and that Kania has neither the will nor the ability to oppose it. mm

The Central Committee may try to mute the contro-verey. It could reaffirm its support for reform while seeking to reassure Moscow that this is the only way it can reestablish its authority. mm

A less likely outcome of the plenum couldactical victory for the conservatives. This probably would entail the ouster of Kania and postponement of the congreas. Such moves would causa an open rebellion in the party and destroy whatever ability it still has to make or enforce decisions. mm

The recent Soviet criticise could result in the expulsion of conservatives from the leadership. This wot>ld in turn force Moscow to make some critical decisions.

Approved for Release

Talks on strike

Solidarity leader Walesa yesterday agreed with government negotiators to cellhreatened two-hour warning strike on Thursday, accordingestern news service. Other press reports indicate talks between Solidarity leadersovernment team headed by Rakowski were inconclusive but that the two sides had agreed to continue negotiations.

Union members in four provinces had planned to stage the strike because the government has not yet named or punished officials responsible for the assault onpersonnel in Bydgoszcz in March. fMM

Even if Walesa agreed to call off the atrike, the other leaders of Solidarity would have to approve his decision. They presumably would do so but probably would criticize Walesa severely for acting on his own, and the conflict within the union between moderates and the more radical members would increase, ffamf

Solidarity'a position on the incident in Bydgoszcz was strengthened when members of the militia therean open letter on Saturday that supporteddemand on punishing officials responsible for the assault. The militia also disavowed the support they had received from the hardline Katowice Party Forum.

Caught between the populace and the authorities, some in the militia have attempted tonion to demonstrate ^at they are not responsible lor repression. asmmVsmmmameV BmmmammmnmmmammmBlBmmmmmmmBBl the newly formedhas not been recognized by theonthat political leaders who used force to repress demonstrators in the past be called to account.

The letter and the attempt tonion are examples of the political ferment affecting the police throughout Poland and bring into question whether the Kania leadership can rely on the police, once the bulwark of tho Polish regime.

Original document.

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