RADICAL PALESTINIAN TERRORISM LIKELY TO RESUME

Created: 7/22/1981

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ARTICLES

Fibiiai

article was prepared by the National Foreign Assessment Center. Radical Palestinian Terrorism Likely to Resume

^radical Palestinian groups are toew terrorist campaign against Israeli and US. targets and tbe pressure is mounting on Arafat to condone, at least unofficially, such attacks. The Israeli attack on the Tuwaitha Nuclear Facility in Iraq and the recent Israeli bombing of Palestinian offices in Beirut have given the radicals added ammunition in their opposition to Arafat and hispolicies. These groups are likely to attempt terrorist attacks. and Israeli tarscts even if thev do not get Arafat's acquiesence.

fj pj has been considering allowing some international terrorist attacKsTTneincidence of such attacks by Palestinians has fallen in the past few years because of Arafat's orders to cease international terrorist attacks in order to give the Palestinianore legitimate and moderate image. Arafat has been under increasing pressure,by radical elements to resume terrorist attacks against Israeli and VS. targets abroad because his diplomatic efforts have been unsuccess-

Arafattrong showing at the Palestine National Council meeting in April and thwarted moves by more radical elements tohis position. Nevertheless, there were reports even at that time that Arafat, in order to slave off radical criticism, had given the green light to planning for the resumption of international terrorist attacks in theevent that no progress was made this yearalestinian solution. I

Recent events may force Arafat to concede to radical demands soon, even if it is only to privately permit selected attacks against Israeli targets. targets, already included in operational planning by the radicals, could also be included. It would be hard for Arafat to defuse the momentum that has been gathering. Arafat may be persuaded to agree in the hope that such attacks would goad the West into speeding up their attempts toolution to the Palestinian question. He may also hope that by allowing attacks, he can retain some control over the radical groups and thwart attempts by several Arab states to gain more control of radical elements. Syria and Libya have been trying to buy influence with the more radical Palestinian groups and have beenthese groups to carry out more international terrorist attacks, especially against Israeli targets, in the hope that such attacks would embarrass Arafat and discredit the moderate Palestinian position.

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Even if Arafal does not condone terrorist attacks by the radicals, he may not intervene if these attacks occurimited basis. There ffffffj

Arafat, for attacks against

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is support even among certain leftist elements within ratafi^rte

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