SPECIAL ANALYSIS
YUGOSLAVIA: Leadership Faces Growing Problems
The traneitionollectioe Uadsrship einee the death of Prseident Tito in0 haa gone fairly smoothly, and there era no serious efforts to earap the consensus- seeking mechanism or the rotation ef the party presidency each year. The leadership, however, is preoaoupisdraying list of serious domestia political and economic problems vhiah it Has yet to deal uith effectively. Jugoelavia'e fragile multinational system is not in immediate danger of falling apart, but Tito's political heire wil^have to develop new approaches if the system ie to survive.
Chief among the current problems is the aftermath of the bloody riots by ethnic Albanians in Kosovo Province last spring. Despite the assignmentederal troops and police to the region, resistance to Belgrade's efforts at "normalization"sporadic attempts to organize demonstrations and outbreaks of armed opposition. Thererowing sense of alienation amongillion ethnic Albanians in Yugoslavia, and leaders in Belgrade privately forecast thatake atecade for the problem to subside. nless Belgrade changes its repressive policy toward Kosovo, the problem there will get worse. The federal authorities' failure to bring thispoorest region inparity with the averagenationwide, as it promised toerious underlying cause of disaffection. JJ/J
With tha national economy going through hard times, there appears to be little chance for substantial new aid Moreover, heightened tension between the Slavs in Serbia, Montenegro, and Macedonia and the non-Slav Albanians creates aa atraoeDbere in which conciliatory moves make littla impect
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ita other
4mi ml
Albanian demands Cor republic Bcat.ua were iamtedlately dismissed aa "counterrevolutionary* by the federaland havo ledispute over the relationship betwoen the constituent parts cf the federal state. Kosovo's parent republic, Serbia, has attempted to reclaim
ovo
constitutional authority over bo autonomous province, Vojvodina.
Interests.
Non-Serbs see tha move by the Serbian governmenthreat to the agreements by which Tito balanced and placated tha diverse regional and ethnic interests within Yugoslavia. They are raising the specter of resurgent Serbian nationalism, while the Serbs respondonspiracy against their "legitimate
Problems In the Party
Orthodox Marxists are charging that the Kosovowo-jld not have occurred If the party organization in Koaovo had not been allowed to adopt an -autonomous posture toward the party center. One of their goals in their campaign for recentralisation within the party is toendy liberal leaders, who have become more vocal since Tito's death, for open dlalogueson policy issues and for more tolerance of disaent. MMf
Improving the effectiveness of tha collectivestructure is becoming anotherissue for the party. There isven within theparty presidency of its disorganized apptcech to problems
Before the events in Kosovo,h Party Congress scheduled for next June wa. tooss of con-
ono another's status.
Most Importantly,Vladimir
Bakaric, lias been in poor health since last spring and must be replaced. ongtime confidant of Tito, Bakaric was looked upontabilizing and moderating influence when Tito died, but his poor health has limited himinor role. With Bakaric ailing, other Croat leaders haverackdown onampaign against the Catholic Church, dm B
Economic Problems
Yugoslavia's longstanding decentralized economic system has impeded both Belgrade's attempts to controlatercent thisefforts to expand exports to hard currency markets. Although even some former advocates of the Jacentralization policy now argue that federal-level economic powers areit is difficult-Jag limit the authority of regional economic Interests.
Periodic shortages of Imported Induatrial goods and consumer iters, scandals over corruption, eclining standard of living, moreover, are affecting popular morale. The party has been ineffectual in coping with economic difficulties, but it is keenly aware of what ia happening in Poland. In the early deltas antlclpatino the congress next June, party loader* aro ti^ingto strengthen their credibility with tho public,
Ppreign Policy
In part because domestic problem* ara so abundent, foreign policy iasuea axe provoking little debate. Tho collective leadership regularly reasserts Ita consnitmentB to traditional nonallgned positions. Budget cutbacks, however, have diminished the level of pomp and ceremony in Belgrade'a^wijde-ranging relations with Third World countries.
Although Yugoslavia immaina active in tho Honalignedtop leader* acknowledge that the looa of Tito
hasnatural" affect in diminishing Yugoslavwithin tho NAM. Belgrade also is worried over the deterioration of detente and possible foreign medd in Yugoslavia as an outgrowth of great power rivalry.
Relations with Moscow since Tito's death have been chilly, in large part becauas of Belgrade's strongwith the Soviets over Afghanistan, Cambodia, and Poland. Yugoslav distrust of the Soviets has been ized in tho media, prompting the USSR to protest.
The Soviets, however, are importing more each year of those Yugoslav goods which are not competitive in the world market. This increasing tie has lad several top Yugoslav leaders to warn against the possibility of long-terra economic dependence on thc USSR and the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance. -MMk
Original document.
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