CIACO NID I:1
Si'ECIAL ANALYSIS
POLANDi ifferent Party Congress
The ninth party congress opening tomorrow promisee toreewheeling and somewhat unpredictable affair. Bonetheleee, it aetemm likely to reaffirm the party 'e cemniituant to the moderate reformist oouree that it has followed since last September. MW
The congress will be inward looking, with mostbeing directed to personnel and party organisational matters. Discussion of social and economic problems will be secondary in the minds of many, MM
The leadership views the congresseans of rallying party unity, improving the party's credibility, andhift of attention from internal party issues to Poland's economic and political problems. The party rank and file sees the convocation largely as the opportunity to secure 'guarantees" of democratization in the party that would prevent the concentration and abuse of power they consider responsible for Poland's current problems.
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The search for such "guarantees" will involvechanges and institutional innovations. While the leadership is prepared to accommodate these pressures for change, it also wants to prevent too much diffusion of power and too many limitations onprerogatives of the Politburo and Secretariat. WM
Tha rank and file have already been responsible for extensive personnel changes at the lowar levels. Their delegates to the congress will now change the composition of the Central Committee drastically, replacing more thanercent of tbe current members. MW
Party chief Kania seems likely to be returned aa party leader. Moscow's letter to the Polish party in
Approved tor Release
early June criticizing hia leadership prompted many party members to rally behindhim despite the criticism of his "passive" leadership.
Kania's political position aeemaleast for the nearhis chances of reelection are enhanced by the fact that the first aecretary is slated to be selected on the first day of the congress. the strongest other potential candidates for the job are close associates of Kania who probably would be reluctant to run against him. His election is notassured, however, because the rules provide for the entire congress to choose the first secretary by aecret ballotist of three nominees. aaV
There will be important changes in theew of the hardliners will be removed, but Kania is likely totrenuous effort to retain some on the body. The new Politburo probably will be enlarged and become more uniformly moderate.
Institutional Changes and Democratic Procedures
The congress will approve statutory changes Intended to circumscribe the power of the party's central executive bodies and make the leadership more responsive to theand the Central Committee. Some possible changes include:
the first secretary to twootal ofears.
top party offijiaie from holding high-level government or certain party
a new body, perhapsresidium, to aot aa the Central Committee's watchdog over the Politburo.
the rights and privileges of lower level party organizations. BsW
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. ,The deliberation, at the congress will be more open tZLrtllth- Central^J;%&
KvTn^^
however'believed to be well
e9 haYeexplicit Instruction, from their local organizations. Although most delegates
I" general, their position on arl ono known "ntil tho votes
willheto manipulate tho delegates will be Impeded by the fact that the elections for the new
eStch Tho Soviet Perspective
8nfluence preparations for the
congress appear to have reducedear of an outriqht
Ue. Sa?YJarrnt??fB^1Ut:lonafy' Moscowextensive personnel changes but
r^erite^a"o remain
The Soviets remain apprehensive, however,h. congress, particular!?to influencS
of moderation and try
to Help retain conservntiven on the Politburo. Mm
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Moscow will make its views known in the speeches of its envoy and perhapsormaltc Lhe conclave. It will have to move carefully, howevjr, to avoida backlash ot anti-Soviet sentiment among the Mm
outlook
Whatever the outcome of the congress, the party will subsequently have to turn Its attention to coping with Poland's catastrophic economic situation and toa workable relationship with Solidarity. Amore democratic party mayetter chance of finding solutions to these problems than did its predecessor. MM
Nevertheless, the greater diffusion of power within the party may inhibit its ability to meet this challenge, and the incroasod "democratization" still will not prove to the Polish people that the party is either capable or legitimate. Furthermore, Soviet pressure on the Poles to restrict reforms will complicate the party's efforta to reach an accommodation with Polish society. MW
Original document.
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