CASTRO AGONISTES: THE MOUNTING DILEMMAS AND FRUSTRATIONS OF CUBA

Created: 11/1/1981

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Castro Agonistes:

The Mounting Dilemmas

and Frustrations of

Cuba's Caudillo I

Castro Agonistes:

The Mounting Dilemmas

and Frustrations of nnsiiuiaiMMiYr,

Cuba's CaudilloY^ m

Munonmlumcoeidintsd wiihin ihe NjuOnai ImelllienccComic* INtClturiuc NMNmsl Fomjii Ancumcni Cc-icr. Corneal! Jit -cicomt asdbcR-ddia-tai-iiu juitot.

(taine Mountingind Frustrations of

JThe Castro regime a. facia, ii. musi go-Jew*roblem, mum it cumcoue infamiliar -Kill, political, and cconom*hai gencraicd di.coMrni O* amiil. accrataiod9 h> serious demographic and gwrailoisal pressures, roawr foreign policy wibachv and Casirw'. declining. the prophetic leader of ihe Kctululion

A critical genera;iun |ap has become one of C'aslro'. greatest preoccupations

Thousands of Cuban* born during theub. boom have reached maturity over ibe last fev. year,oubled cooum. in winch wbv housing nnd .ahcr tUtftm are ware:.

Cuban juuiks bare alreads turned it crime andr behasw. and as growing tanker, come uf age during ihe remuader of ihe decade,bkeliiuodaiU-jn;io (Wro(xo4dN> increase.

Castroobsessed -ith thai half of the rufwUiuand with ihe di lemmas of boatwm the at.ii. aadof his Seneraiiari ofnurse*.

As these aad other pressnrc. lux increased. Castro's kadcrsbip siylc and his public mood have changed dfam.iss.ll) Hi. ivumcroir. wcevise, sui_9 reveal that he

Has beta dwelling ienrdmalcly on the rust, and larurularly un hi. eiploil.ounK rcvul.ttonari.

Is disturbed Ihai his plan to be an cncrgciK kadcr uf the nonaligncd movement -as shattered b> ihe Sonetfghani-an.

Is blooding about the intmclobk problems of Cubit undcrdevck.pn.cnl and the Weak prospects for the economy during ihe remainder of the century.

Has replaced his Utopian vision, of theand TO.ark preoccupation- wilh hotocnust and apocalypse.

Fears thai his regime -ill have to defend itselfilitary conflict with the Unned States in wrothlarge portion of the Cuban population aould remain neutral

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Caitfo'i rmnukiriiv ind crcdibilitv ate nrobablv lowerver before, and are likely io continue deteriorating:

The probability of idle youth* rioting or engaging in other overt act* of opposition -ill increase through

erhaps one chance in three thai mine social and economic tensions will mult ic significant opposition,

Thereood chaace that Castro will decide to launch another min-cullural rev-Julie* in Cuba.

Although there is no evidence that any top Cuban leader* arcoupastro b. Tor the first time inears, no looter unthinkable- To have the slightest chance. Cuban figure* would have to mount their coup simultaneously against Castro, bii brother Raul, and

key hardline officials.

Tension* between the United Stale* and Cuba will continue to rise, and Castro will be an era more dangerous adversary than ia the put:

He is very likelyame vendettas against leader* or government* in Latin America thai be consider* proxies of the United State*.

He will vigorooily exploit every opportunity for revolutionaryin El Sahadcr. Guatemala, and other countries to refurbish hi* and Cuba's revolutionary credential*.

The United States Interests Section, tbc Guantanamo Naval Base, and US citizens In Cuba -ill be increasingly likely targets of abuse.

It is also highly probabk that Cub* will aim anit-US broadcast* at American minority groups, la retaliation for US transmissions to Cuba.

l-.ven more extreme or irrational actions, which could lead to military conflict with the United States, will be mote likely than ever before.

If. as seems likely, Castro comet under |renter pressure andal strain,the rangee will try loilitary eooflicl with the United States He could see this as on opportunity to tally the youth, to strengthen hi* regime and personal position, and to attract international support.

greater likelihood, nonetheless, remains that Castro's position will continue to decline, given tbc absence of LS- Cut an hostilities.

Castro Agonist**;

Ihe Mounting Dilemmas

Fnntratiem of

hirodoerion

(Wei CMonvergence of old ard oca probleme more

io ihcor hi, rcinnen> ha<

dormg nearly ower, rfc* ^miliar factor* lhal BtrxralaJ pornlar dttconirnt in ihr IVeOiiroubled economy incrtta-ugly dependent oa caromng ^pr aad onotalitarian regime unabk lo motnate orarge percentage o( the people or toihc return of year, of poorlanning; and in Inordinate commitfand othero costly foreignthai pay fewreidendt.

Thetegnd Cher problem, -ere iruil)ted90 byajor foreign pahcy Mitoclu. and especiallyof ihc mo*irun of rudgrrtent over public rotary thai Catim hatmade.he decitMnadctlabi. Ii'iniafterxile, i.o ik iUand. In ihc aftermath or their .nliv.ci.nc. ^ndibim. worker abvcnieei.m. and other form, of document rote tharply. and were met wiih meteringPopular nulaiw >a. further arDoacdroand other leader, demanded greaterand effort. thoughmine thai tigm/icani irm^ovcmvMi in tocial and economic condition. -uWd not be tumble before the end of ihe century.

B> April HBO rublK diwonient -a* probablyletprend tn Cuba than al an> time time* theCamro>ndolher lop leaden lecmed turnrltfngl, unaware o* it. intcmity umil moreCO0 Cuban* .warmed onto ih* ground* of the Perman fcmbmya-atia leckiag aiyfaim In enwingngry confrontation, with ihe Unitedndair dozen Caribbean Bairn twining* unequivocally established ih* lonef CattrrA more militant foreign policy, th.frustration and ire. .cnied repeatedly in belligerent and ramW.ngere rcminwetil

rratic aad highly emotional public beba.ior doting.

Theio ,other dimenikm. ofure prcuing iniernal problem, are widely appreciated, but other, pe.han. more wgnificant factor,affecting ihctabiht, of tbe Caaro government have received leu nigMkm. On* of it* mowhe irilku) generatum gap lhal dearly ho* become one of Castro's greaioi preoccaiaioaa In speech after >wech over thee-he ha. addreued the ennui and dlxvMeat of ibegerwtaiico and ha> xxtned ate obaeved with ihe dilemma .a*n Ihe youib the rnyih. and hopei ofgenerariun of -cvotuiwrirKl Al SS. Camo ptoidoatron where aatoiereeni of ihc people are )oungcr lhan hend where abnuiercent 4Ie undernd ha.en mcanoey of hi* eiptali in winning powe, from Ihe BaiHla dkuuxth.p

Aa hi* oratory knowingly bus dwelled onconeernt. Cailro'l gloomy public mood hat reflected other nitging prablerns ai well. Me t. prafouadly

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that hi. phicalMie hope in'whenimcd ihai rok have been inihe Soviei lhal Decem-

ber. Many ol his speeches include rumination, about ihe intractable problems ofm Cuba and cltewhcre in Ibe Thud World. Bul.e. addresses al iheerence plenary in0 ind aled Galium ihe 'olWwln, monthf hiahwo. and demandsetinciunnf or North-South rclutamt. his rhetoric overear or to in. been increasinglya fori. Castro's dark broodmt. aboutidle hi. grudging, faialbiie acceptance since Aff haaUtan ofinescapable vasul.ige tu the Stniet Union.

ongtimeobserver* of Castro, public behavior and rhetorichonerci.tcisthi* tear on theme* related io kolorausi and apocu-lyptc.apparently despairine Catiro hasked hi.wifiiet -lib the Unitedh bf undo aboui ho* irue Cuban roolu-lauu.rio.an Kb, apocalypticften quite ctphcM. He has repeated It Died the uordha, mused about Cuba and the world after nuclear wailarc between ihead ha. admoni.hod ho auCbcKcs lo increase iheirand roululioeuiyhe face of

cr.

Tin. attitude is in Mark eunlrasllaarn and effervescentthat tbeCuban leader eaun-ciated consistently in ihe IflMhaad TOs. His shift from unmiaa lo apocalyptic nUm probably re fleets the relation lhal his unfulfilled promisesetter future have already begunndermine bis. the prophet* leader of ibe Revolution and ihe staWily ol hrs govcrament.his eaasgeraicd eflori. to use ihe once effective theme of USs ive nut succeeded in mob-stin| the popotace. Hi. gloomy predictions aboui eeaflici with iheie. may ia fact be must umeiiling u> lhal Large Koctor of the popolaiioa about uhieh he is mosi concerned The youth of resnanioairy Cuba, like .unit everywhere, are most readily inspired and

nv*"li/rd by utopaiaitei.lnionre utcd tof..

Thisun of Castro's emitting outlook, mood, .ad pcrfiuiitincc aad his key preoecu pa lions, is based Uriel) on his orator, mo the lat! two )ean. No leader in modemsbsbry hatenonal record to voluminous and complete a. Castro ha. in the millions of weed* he hat mv*c. on the record sine, be cameigh of aiundred major addresses in thai Tiro year, her.gcd aboutannually tinoc. In many, like the uddreu to the Second Com rex of ihc Cuban Communiii Party ho Deccmbef and ihji at the United Nations in0 tthr lungeidelivered iherei. heor over five hour. Many, especially in ihe early years, were delivered eilemporaneouslt. and thereeen numerous occaswns when ne* pohcy dlreesiiint sprang from sccmiatly spontaneous utterances

Uueoufseital function for Catiro. an miG|>al pan not only of hit charismaticbut of hi. piycholugical ccmposiiion. He relies, of course, on cteaidcrabk doses ofdecepiiutand camoufbEe in his public appearances, and until recently showed an uncanny facility for adjusting ha tone. Hyle. and ihrust to particular audiences. Nonetheless, his speeches haw been hit My reliable gauges of hisaltitudes, imeretit. veuxw.ccu. inns. Often-av in ihe Miriclbasilift bslhave prowded warning ofould soon talc. Over (he last iwo le.rs.Catiro'.and delivery-have premded ia-crcasingly oteful insights Into ha evolving emoiianal state and effect wen esteader.

The Cesurarwa Cap'

Amont iheeta^iicnlsuare could not have anticipated when he began to governohiiionsry uat thai ihe hiaics and changes he helped unteath wcoM eoetribnu to an

airiHr

i min Pine. teat.

*

gc la the Cohanate iter figurr;hcfiveit climbed imdih.1 twit* pet thoooad11 per laouarrd m Then.eipcctation. were darted, il leHnmiag jenn and no- rank, among ihc lo-ett in ihe leii deretwdA. Ca.iro Ita. noted with teemingccauonv ibe timcltirc ofop-lalicc, hai created eaoimow practical and polilicalfor ihc regtmc uee

figure 21

Children bom in ihe peak yean of ihe baby boom aie now in- lo I'-ycar-old age noof After remaining ribtrrcK cwn.iantb* rumbert inohori .urgedevel0 thai

-a. more thanercent ttrcairi ihan in prcviotnecame mot entrant, to ibe labor force fallit (roup, and became of economican>ot found work. In hit Drccnttotr "teereta.iro admitted lhal "wmt lentil ikeatatiiih of youth are oui ofhe .andalom. crime and "aotimciar bcharor that hat preoec-nkdrobably ahoconfined brid. io thi. age group. Man) of these youihi are ai or clow to ih* apt of marram. ocici> thai apparently prefer* almost umtcrtal and early marriage. Bai .honagoo! booting, coatnmcr goodt. and ttrvtee* -ill greatly fratlrnle Iheir pisn* to etlabrith new hcnlKboU* or u> wanamiliet

I

Birth and DeathJ-79

hi iO ol -* i- u *o 'J ') -a 7t 'i

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Th* jenei -Hon in addition,l> cdacaicd andentirely iirder revolutionaryaurtrn. primary,adary school,. - ata in Cab*,brfcr rattensof beiiet food and icudi than ih* aeneral puBubtio* Because of ihii treatment and Ibe rebmore favorable economic vondiitom in iheouths in ibisrons probably had vly hiih tipecialiont O" aradtNtioi. however, they inerea-nSl)ad lo conlrowl ihe ban*l aand niai.rdl) economyhich ihnr .Vim and Intcrevii find It- tonaimdivc diets

n la-aer cohort In ih* Cuban popoamoniheo la-year-oW air troop born ra ih* ira-lirm end of the baby boom yean Cattro hai sard thai eiwolmrmdklevetow I) lime, hrjber than* laaai.

and oiher prospects of ibex children a* ihei comehrouah the retnaindef of ihc IMQt art kerb lo b* even men Weak than for the IJ-ear old. Wrihoai aaauincd economic irowih and development In Ih* new fr*is hi|hlrCobaa leadership will probably confroai mounting polilical. aociaL and cevneanic diknnmai a> ii Irict lo absorb the* newnrtl ironyertainly rw lost on Caatrothat much ol IheiaveslMcnl madeew youths over the ItM Hvaraln infmtrwetur* lhal wilt not be needed once the baby-booai cohorii com* uf ai* Thtia, when Castro noted bit Deccmbtt lhalan fJO sitools" were btiah in th* preview* tWt yeari. he uitl) rcalitcd that many of them will Maad

rr nf i

bj icm of ihouwrdi hart bna ten; abroad

More0 Cuban iraopt arc ind lihnoia atanilanaad mil rc ia Nicaragua.', aad thousands more art assigned to nearlyther doc loci nr.n la My IHO Caitrv claimedCO0 Cohans are prmtding "excrnfttar) services- atcoad Some, riaehirdccamirSov are probably aanea* the and brightm of their generation, but haveprotpecu uf beirg able totheir laiili in thru wan Planter.

i a'ge number- are aim being tent lo Sovm Bloc countries, eilher to si nay oraa traineea Thenn tan* German? aad Crcehcalo vanm The Sonet Union rttcll mil probably incrcav tn(l>cmporat) huuia fur thousands oladrc Mudyutg there eon Cait" hit actually Mated thai be nnvd hieo Siberia to cat limber (or Cuban eonitraclion projects Perhaps ia an attempt ai Mack

e added thai at hastaeaaad an* h* a* ana

empt* bv ihche children rapidly rjecfinci.

in aiiro'i prcoccunitxai with the numeram problrmi

of the baby-boor* tioeratien hat been ewatent aa be*

ew of In speechesbeen without some

reference lo the tout a. and in maa) a* hat ton* on al

lengthadeol'adh feat lhal laeisara-

tull> raraoure MMrevatutunary farce both

and in ihe decadct ahead. He may be concerned that

man) of ihe young al*eady been crura miled"

caaili of Ihe nvna by Cobaa-Anaerkaneii'et and

Ihrpreacnt allure of prosperity and freedom

ucroo Ih* Florida Strait. Probably in brae partof thesenatro ha* asakcsnuir) ailached Ihc ptanrnd Redb Marti broadcub lo be

'.- y the ited Stales. He Inoat irou-Minn, iflptuii mated profaM he. boa vied last Dccrwhcr lhalow oa ihe nveniic more than one radio per Cubsnronically, ihe raeaam laat he once uicdsucfttc-inesy aa achieving aad romce.aa.icif lower new hat boconic ona of ha ireaiesl 'iinerabdrtict.

i hn i

Castro recogmrea, oft

a llcnaluig someeary. He "of rsm no doubt about ihcattions if the Cuban ireopt in Africa were ashed toar if Ihe East Eedtayeaae grew weary af rhe ofvea driraptne protenc* ol brge namben of Cuban* Largely If* these reatons.Castro ltra'.gly prefers Ihc fwrmancai wMution ofltnri fatly by another maasne .igralioa lo the Unite* Stales He has stated pubhe-ihm he might burubaaolh*rie*lmarvel *scdkm bat year and ihc see*5 The prcasarea to do so again are hkely io me nr.Oil| ihrough the IllOa, pcrblptreaching tuch critical intensity al Itasca lhat he will lake almoal any risk to rid kaaoxlfew handred thmasaodcayht

baeiiiea mth Cahaa ycaath eftce seems

of

rrtorcover. toscaa and petty Quality He oflen

teems lo be spealeif condescendingly to them, to he

arc

prcachiag rlghlcnasly. aad I* be rsmwistsng them nf ihdr Raws Then areveiled> when hei for 'mare cntkiim and tclf ciitrcnm" among; ihe youth ar whena led lhal "we must act with responMCalitr aad flrmaeat in ihe brminanof Ihe futureessse Casiro hasat-

tumed ihe icacundamaaultii staphcrd nsiiuied pubK-

meolly I'(log uodleet hit waywardSol unlike ry lhat he asigbl bunch aaeehae acafcifl of 'ctagiei hit his target,evangelism of ihr ivtOt and the Manel eiodtit bst jear and ihe on* from Catuar-early'70s. hia lernum increaimgly dwell on threaitof lic and brimstone raiher lhan Ihc reaardi and picaMres of the tpubiicnsary tanh ll Mem* lhat Castro actnalty renin many of these children of ihc Revolution, and may regret hating favored them ovcr almoM all other aistnss as Cuba.

Cltiro's tntrrasingli cynical view of irw youth ii alto suggested by ihe sonographic ibdt gara* thai fc* plays with then la mn becaate to maay ia the bab) -bstom gcneraiion aid others now in their IweMres

IlrmrniBranee ofIt it largely became ol ha prth mol>the youthvito haitliag in ta public addieuc* oa (miitc'o aad victories. In a( leann*. he ha ciahod la fimi at'gauging a* theitr.ggeiin*aa]agajjgaaaj*<v> and Macao, ha*oathfal revalu-

and the rtctnry al lb* Baofad tewral nnx* ha* mentioned the dtfTicali dan of the I'M Mmik (Iiul Ai Icatt mice he ha* etpliOUyihe fundamental ubfeeine of ihii large, often cnntiHunt bud) of inttork toimboln blind linking all generation* of CubanHe elated one loeceh. fur intmncc.reference lo the "heroes of the out. ihe heioet of the proem,aid ihe heroes ol ike future "

nuc rnicrrtting obta'f Cittro'tperfornuBce.iKal hn self japriiacrcaingl) hitighly pennnUirao hn ownstro naa traveled eClca Ota

i cito the cittern aranate* ihe old Onenathere hehorn and ruieel. where atn-nimncvd hiifxtficacMin ItW withauh un the Moncade armyad whet* hediternbarkeel from the iieht Graama6 io henna two-year imurgenc) in the Sierra Mje*iran ai* dum addreiteila want and village* paltered through Ihat area, he hat recalled often nvidlyo teem ripe wilt claet lo Cattrot often KigM> stiaigrd emotional elate mer ihe last |wp

The aaenaonc* he ha* moahrd a* kuusra lor tic youth have been krgcH coaeeraad with death, prrriiiea. tmd tacnucE. la MaafaaUBa. "Wit heew hctoitil law laaaary to hn oM framd Come cticrarnrind alkagih about tic meaning of her life and of the contributions o< oikcr "fallenine her. who wat one of CaWrot mut! intimate confidantci onctad

nt nfn lliittaee*bit' he rambled on again about the difficulties of the Sierra Macatra inaurfcacy. icounting in gory dtlail how another "comrade" had died In Mat.dbge in namunantae tar-adim<b> remembrance speaking b> name ufatmenn ytvaag aaarrli aha(ought -ahhe Sierraai*-

In ihetcew otherppcarancei (hH tear. Cjim- hat actually teemed io lapse into sufitaoav In Isr> recollectiont uf hn struggle*oung guc'riQa. he hai teemed to bite contact with hit audience*aad lo be totaling "tore for hi* ownample of *uelbehanor wat in ihe irerch he delivcied Lau July on Children* Day.nall townanau Province Ciinol the ounei that tbc rcvcaaiian hat ccetniahrrued itarll withand eauuttraird detaat af the inirifcal it kit made inay cart Cfntcrv aad rccriatunalneeteedcaied refketton of hn unataal mood af Ltic.

he malted iniimnc detaili uf tin tor head beftie

rimmitcingeagih about minaliae ol thenturgency. He continued in an apparentlymonologue for at knit tonal rnore minute*

TMt inordinate preoccupaiionadcel, honeeflected in other, more tangibk way* mCailraaiwiouncnl al the Second Parly Ccngreutui Dcccubet. for inwance thai ao new miuevmitii Wituba in ihe rrrceehrg five yean, aad that flaaananvenu andkealeru" wire acdicaud Me aho praiaed lac Hrdory lattitite. wateh ha ravaakd ha* been iraaagingaa

Uf haiiiwa whwatlai

i ail*

Ike iiuaiiiinihn aMMr hww URnauO> SM

nin

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esicwsm rrx.nhtsVshinat program lo educate iheIb ihe oreggks and acbanemrau al the Resosa'ioo Ilk (rail of that anagram ha> bom an cscaciatiatl) dttaikd rconaaaaag ul esen Ibe auk

ibe icnufgen. i One hang

chanter, published bst October.Of ued calirels io the enrolseehbruary IMT aaas io ibe titterctksutty unherjlded peasant farmer

.ind his dutiful alfa.

This irnul'ijii* uf hatlury probuMt -ill has*he mirrataa the tout gkacitioas.aa> mat bai- oulude Cuba lhal ihesrfampaign were far less tnipinaj or ininniine thjn ihe mylht crraied about il lake. The ranks or tho tvrrrlMai andsasupporterssmall, the -truggk aaa br|*I) ton fined lo an isolated area, aad there -ere Tea significant batiks or atbaa caintwiga* ihailarge naasbenereisr man roventl) inloi Thav lor Ihe. ti Caboc simih cdircain1 aadthe bistort sam-ans mat jeiuatlt tend lo ckmyehulafirc ihe Resolution

The IrtaMralium of

lor Castro, ihe past that he 'dishes, lyub>iilutc for ihe hjiUt realities of the present. qsei ibe last iwt years, there base been ftss nosuir*mi ia sternal (aba* affairs, aad inrst-liatcs in ihe historsa these ciaan-pies lend toward Ibe absurd He has made much. rUr instance,lerolaiHinary"dairyLore rVancu tal he claims produced alnsoslucrt uf rr IV the day before Ihe loth of Jutsafcb-jiisas. ihk seat CaUroand the retime haw ecneraivd oaniidiiabat. rvoaaaanda aboat ihe an-ma! In Usiobcr lOaO ihoe ocn msec liil.ifs mr-founding the flight of Ihe first Cuban atirwnsut. who C'astm wj- al kasl betior ebk lo bold up lo the youth as an csampk.

1 refers anea tocoaanplahments m

international iiMr.it ismpeinaon. eeSucalina. and public hcalih. bul cien in ihose nreat in whieh he has been humiliated In nUdlKiober he pubtklj ami hit inflerubaa baseball team lost to one from

rl Sum and he (mieirrd the fdaim imt thei hat been tscn mure einburrattint. hussescr. thai siser the lati tear or tothc credibility of tubus muchbbe healthhas beenanese'auaed Math k> Castni's nmstona-ia> Tm tusit laaul and ttmf dneasn basm iiaehedbae-laVe revjnalioa. he has refenrdem ase blames Ihr Iniled Slates foe eoterily iatrodueint litem.

teady ihu naiaenws sinptoms uf Cuba't iairaetabac underdesebtpatcnt. and iif'sie* nca/tyeat* eunaMiiins in nam ar*ais arc wane than when be staitrd His speethet rtfbxl aCuerest and ctiuiusc in drscloreneni ccunotants and uncnaisonal tiaancc. He has been able, partialis at lent, lo welcome His nrcviornanlipath) fur econunuc theott.eactht diicusstua of economies in oar sasrcsTi.fur csaraifilc. he ttoreicd ia ibe mddkhuathi andto hn auabeace far levias arcane matsm lu AprslbeaVSmred ibe laaafarjl nUiess to ihe atutiut of TlurdSsj cctrtomisisbtuaa. In thst speech, and others, he has prostded aof Ctuet Ui Ihe man> facets uf Ml profound frustration about Cuba's economic pheht and hisoptions fur dcabnt with il.

He menus pana-aaar tmaaits lor certain Third Wottd

ecamrcsave jchiesed hafh 'tin uf ecaasorik

troartb Duiint ihr Ha<ana tcuaeaaics camferencc. he tubed out at Hsvnj koat. Saagapare. South Korea, and Taiwan fur their "defceainfcrctly be prnbubly admires ihe abilityote countries to industrialize and tlimu-bte Iheir ecortomm without bccumint vattals Simi-ari. be hai attached the Cbikan miln 1la* fsabiaing CaacafuSchmd ibrossv lutkathe bafb nam ami: fuwih aebanedlhal cemmtyhe last severalis oronf sanneaiiy losrard ihe VrneruclanroboMy In pari Bitnbutahlr io the oil wealth of itat couniey. and its willininctt toor Unerase in it* forciain indict

Although there is bo evidence, etiher in his rhetonc or elsewhere. Castroalasott certainly is chafing increrit. trtgly under Ihe yoke ol Cuba's mouniing de pence nee on ihc Scxmi linan* He indicated last December that (tide -ah Soviet Bloc countries, which arrowed* percent of Cubes esiefnil commerceJ, had grown toercentarge rsraeeniyge of futare sugar prceltKlion tt earmarked for the USSR, and Cuba lnc.eet.-ngl, isarger, meffi. cieat tropicalhe "inierMitonal aecialisi division ofl it unllh.lv. furthermore, lhal Havana will be able to doctor stgnificaoiori markets daring Ihe remainder of Ine IWi lain addition. Cuba is scheduled io begin repayment of its considerable debt lo th* USSR. This grim ocrtloot.hen compared to the more favorable prospects of sother rJcvelopiag nitrons,nity contributed loCaiiro'* apparent dmpoadene,

From Ultrpla to Aaacal.ps*

During ihe first several yean after he won power, Castro'* romanticism and nationalism provided ihc basis for his enormous charismatic appeal. Later, hi, uncanny ability to raise new- and alluring scheme' out of the aihea of ones that had failed presided coast.at renewal and hope for large numbers of Cnbaag. Hrsproposals, tiexpounded in haswere oflen as unlikely at they weee insptrrnr iwtani IndtaUrisJiaation: coffee pbnuiions In theorticultural "green bell" estrrd-ing for mile* around Havana; idyllic eraoperaiiv*oneylessureaucracy-free gov-ernmeni through maumillion-tonharveai.

Vear after year these and othir impossible dreamshatched, tried.led abandoned. Pantv wtoov pemate lor these faihsret, Castro strut ted about thestageui tot ic role lhal by iheinally began so pay important dividend, for him and theany countries of ihe Third World. The apogee of his internationalas perhaps achieved when he tpuwe al Ihe United Nations in9 ia kit new rote as krader of Ibe sxmaltgncd nwetnent and at sctf-appoiatcdfor the poor and oppressed people of the world.

Oier Ihe lint rwn tram visioat incrcs.ingl, have been replaced by orocalyptii ones. Rather than cossetingr disirac. lions from Cuba's problem, as he did in the past. Castro has been dwelling instead on the problem. themseh.es furt her more,onitimly emphaiir-ing thai Ihe problems are more threatening and awescene ihan ever before. In0 he said, -wlai. the fale nf humanity, the worMr The follow ing September he warned thai "ihc future for tbe immense ma,ority of mankindloomyast December he employed similar hsrserbole. claiming thai the ha man rata has oner earxrieneed aa era like thisnd mostne sard lhal "ihe present cannot be compared loany cider time of mankind."

These aeesniyntlc visions take various forms. One. frecjuenilj reiterated, is lhal th* world faces anothernic eeemonvk dcprettidn. He has sard, for eiample. thai "the world it on ih* verge of an unrycccdcmcd economic and financial catastrophe" He predict, numerous seiode. and other her utile repersumione. More typically, however, the nightmare b* pomnd* anf nuclear holocaust. OnI. he saidorld war "would kid not only io Ih* deaths of llmasandi. or hundred! of Ihotnanth. or millions, or tens of Brilliant, or hundreds of millions, butar would lead to the end of mankind.'

Ont sard lhal US defense buildups wiH -lead lo nothing easeew occasions he has used the same hind of apocalyptic visions to arrive ai an ostensibly more optimistic view; for cample, "we do not accept ihe notionorld holocaust it meviiabk': and "we do not accept the idea of the irievitabllil) ofat in these statementsumber ol others this year In which he has protested thai he "isessimist" and thai "wealways beasiro appears to beind of public self, eaorcrsm. Such revealing effort, io disguise hitmood uiuaTly are conirfdlcted almost in ibe ncii

nwfliiit.

ed. "well, ui die honorably itfood wat lo behave

and act."

Thete genee ah/cd nWm of ntsral damn* artjiinural imnwdnii mrteein.m io defend itxir nuMirily against ihr

Ii.idh( the Rerwblici- Pan) iwi-vul

tvencnlion Uvi >cui. he Dart com* atcrcatinglt lohat tic and hit regime ace gravel) threatened Ha attach* on Prciidcni Reagan have become iit-C'eaitngltand bo hut alui vilified Vita Presi-Jeni Bath. Secretary Hug. andbirtpai-rith. Canrol mounting apprcbciHwa about ihieau fur- the Ua*icd Sum baay bran He bat vrracd cOeurd aa tc-rral ocrh prm-rig 'Jullira Slain hat used chemical ati 'CijI afimi in sow disease in Cuba, and hat rcpcutcdlt reveuled hi* (car lhal Cuba will ba bloc

Itr aioal cunccraed aboui large teak military con-fltci between Cuba and the llniiedSiaiea. and for al tenia (car hai been uiiemptingiba Cuban (auric fur war. He clearly belicvci lhal If hotlil-inn begin they would ba (aeree.comirkiiMc ftgbiiag aaa lea* of life oa both taaci lie hnaor eiample. thai "if the, dare to in**d* oar uaaaarr. mure Yankees "ill die hen lhan la World Wnnd Ihai "rnilliont ofriut. because he mat doubt thai the Cuban tiiilun populace would poi up ant tcriou* ictiManec to US force* or tally to fighi brtntc iheir own armed fareas, he hai atad jlmai everto to iry to nsobthtu thewIbe hat rcpratadrj- eadbad an them to be preparede-'reala ctenvn-tioaal cuaflici and an umunteni-caal on* in nhteh ihe ptirple woukl form guerrilla tctiturm"We're ma like the Christian* of anoe.ite haa Mid. "who meet I. mi'rendered."

Meatet* ctanoa ciharo't incrcasingl} paranoid tiuoa of Cuba fightingf id or erpronitaon alone. Oncioberighly unutuil prepared ipcrxh that was unpin My crilical of the Soviet Union, ha tari thai we tltoulil "tat etpcci anyone to defend u* but lo defend

-njtrlvnT*mtettr -if bctcacuratcnlai bectane earn of ihercu at Caaem't aabbc ptifaamaaca aver the tan year a> act

t moliom and thoug hn ol the kind lhal hnr primeu-ptrd Catiro hive in otbet cum often culs-natcdvtligeiant tente nf eitremt ranuaaln Caiiro'a catc there have been Dials ia at trail two of hit highly petonal lpcechci ia hit homefaaaitrophK vralua af ha aad ihe tnoluiaeneamaacai. "Aa hatf at there areanaadhn* hatg at thereiag'e armede hat taid. "we mil light to thehat. lull at hit Revolution began in the Sierra Utetira wilh tavrn armed men, one cannot rule cat Ihe pouibttit) lhal Cailro. in hit darkeniay acltnBy conceive of il bnng progreuiith' reduced: erigini' contingent agin At the end a* aa ihrag. Cattnoandfal ol trwtted lamcniBii aoaldotae struggle agaimi the eacvit-ng forte* ol ho litany

nitaM

' i aad..Cattm't charnaialie acoaal through tbe >ean emuml in large mn afcomplea of ahtataont lhal rem tetai one by aae to baOk tbewo vcan. he ba* fumbled,t bit place ta the icarnt al notet and paper* lhal he nO" uauatly bnngt to Ihe puaturn when be tpeakt. Al ihe Parly Congrct* speech I* Oeermber IIIO he eomplalned ihat hn paper* were ilippiag from the podiirrt.arpenterquithly turn-

atonad to repair it.he has draped ealirc

vfrom tenalgias, aadIbtahem where they aVaJnl belong.cutecr he hmped onto the tuge and eipla'ined ihn "ino fighi tedentarinei* and obesity bylamall fraciuic of one of tha lean af my right foot" ll is quite unlikely laat Castro would haae called attrnlion lo the inytw-especially am Ikehenrevioa* year*.

Itett andn oraiorical fysc. ahich aoald befor meat leaflet, mi. be highlyt mdn-ators of hit dimininhiog chnntms. The

I i

nu.ki iliu-mn >i't aiifu ibehni

i<ktd til hisll IhCBill prOCtlbl) idiniiWby Ihc lra-tiv> and iJipiuf

:hc Loadutauf la rarWrc. The Maui heheme ar*ob-

.aver ha-WTf ll- appeal.

haved "ii Ihe raipwhi' iien thai Miburdiruu uflionh -ere rcMXMVvbk liar mismanagement am) run- plan'- M, ha, undoubtedly alio declined ,i> he tenin" ihc bla.ne In addilrvei. hit etircmcchance* during Ihc la*l nrubabU have untreated ihc

lbamai hehi do

ail In ihraaal 'ftVutuhrcu on an*jnd torpntctv)but iamwat-in io ihusceaded Iu reflectona

enen hatlied blatant!)When he. "ag-an junlataa* miha*abahnced ihehe -a*ioeni lhalof iinaot beH ine

dhlat* tVuboac- muaiht later, hnuete'i lhal "ihe ttandard of liiing -illrncertaitcl) in thermal fW-iearperunlThe Cuban retatat cciah> ihe amnrvauhl) hna bach rhan a> ihennc prci'ar*aia*ni oa ii-.miI'uiie Ihcm hi iheir ir.ider* once jppcal.ng flair It ii. utliavacant

a reoull id ihctc ami <Hhei dcicl>*ancnii. (xvaUr.it r. prurwoKlhaa ever be Kit andiuWl?,iiniiab( deiei.<vmag tar-en recent iicneh and hii frame of moid,nlilriy to (lop icciur.nglotbc tuBlh. trivializinghtof hit wan iiiHirecitci. and duelling on ipm "'Mil theme* tit en if he wereeurrtci ihctc and other crrur> luwiihckiv Im cedibiiii) for be>if abac iu uiiv'i iS rt-eii -Kiin maicrial ayvaium ata> already be beetle Muhi. ibiliu in motivate and mobilize ihe ratcofcicc Tor 'dcfciiH'roduction" or for any new pel theme- Mil- ii>ii.adt more (intra)

d-vii ta antedcome of age.

hen islatH-mall chance thai

: aviro -illtin Iklay Ihc ravapoan;-

^rratmwV Ia' ta -iyearshc more heimajsMd ie>anee aader thei" o>n depend intrrauaa-lt onriiln. mliiacia it aim lileli iu erodepunutariii fuithn Stiiiar ol ihew iifTarialt. liae tlte ruthlro Hamai Valdev -hiirembe>- mm reap-ratananf ialnioeta dealrr-nc criaae aadnUiia Me widrttl uf them are -ii' (una (ulVicuo wncc iheaMK. <ad tetcram of ihe imhiary and iccuriiioti ire crude and uNicmuiii men -boroibubl) have been fiailint; -imc uf Ihe mure uniiiMt lendenciet lhal Cattro ha* uVmuntirated

nnmAa ibe bubtrarheIhe

ofl rmiMbt. mcrcatc Cntett he can caporl olirar mmber ol people, ruinr. >ouih uneniplinmcnt will oaniribuie io hiah rate- uf crime, tundalitm, and tahri Autircaimc arallaad pcrbar*laoaaicd Beat rerroriw-)Cairw uaer- or malant brrl caTatanb -illnvthliH The peanintmy nf tree.pt of idk to-irr. .nuniiitroutlt riolini in Havana or oahxTorvi 'i in ttrcel dcmornlialiom will increase If CaMru acre lo iuciIIdic or thnw leaicncy in deallnun 1 ieicalale iaio (arger. more inriowt ehalknaea lo Ibe rctrnie. Over

i'i Catlro bat been paofouadls ambnakat

about ha- oca la noimii and utcorporaic ihe ywuih imo the ttr. jIiuius and he hatumber of eriora The chancet are huh that both ol ihcwc trench mi. indefinite!)

On balitcc. miocihelovrobably onl) ab-uiihtrce in three thai 'nana weal and reoewunac leaimm ataocaatcd lartehj -rah ihe arrival of the baby-bnam teneratiomigrafitam opnoaa>he Ithfji inlihc Pofaml. -here ibe Cat Mil Church hat SAwd for yean io |ivc fmui

in

3 8

tKeWliifieU. Itu-re i'. itoiadcrHnuVni

utwm, laui oaaldj unNIji pa" In add'Hrr eiam of Iheaa*

vn'OUl

taling ri.li bod them in pri-nn. nhilc bopanau,earnerateiled Nuk. Tbc >nr>drierrenimid

roailaBVC ailUbt Iba large.ifKO

andeart indfiucm thai are titntrultediiii and hi> >oungcr brother Raul

oul.tuacem will decidei .bioilitn (tnoiaouii |imevic*

d.-unt ind nuumiibili'.ilhim Ml did Iho. in Ihi IW

lendUi-iHurthen tfnconicnilc again hiil imrnitdibwuii b* pal-

line largegrlabor, andr.irg ideological Nrifcaitun. . ihe >ouih li includediac of a

iiij Him officiali whom tbaaaard be being ifno*Tte*tniKand lutioaalm* In bnin De.ernbi' IITO. he rctealrd lhal he had corMtdercdo noi inlend toania lien nond loculuiraldm'then. Mini ihe

siinimircd to >nailti ihrm ihr .banco thai

fii ullldrvdr he ha* to mien lathe mil til Ii a* dim Ikhe iraiiali>Ghite lihefihoodbr huh. in additina. lhal another

i/kimr acaiidthe Ltiled Sulci

ape icarcaan anda'ce of off* .ah blamed foi bmf wo

impAftni Vaunt.o lea-un lo

lhal aai in miliU"Pall)

baden are n> da-atnficd thai iht) areH'lla1 Ihcm. bi> Iteilxnac) -ithc Kon luliiin'* ina*iniua teniae* and gunkbnttl> ilill iiaiic high, cm ih.*gh man) mint have ntuic daubn ih.M* they drd atcari aco Tbetc lop tcbe'oMba'> ratingamfTci ll* carrenaiium or mate ihefno a> ibel large Allimn ha<cIhe innamerahte ictlt ol ihrn

knall) and uacdicnivkecar licCcrbapi no moreeaaK hai* am real hneria* aaal aal ol themenol b) ibe (Ium hnahen ami their hardline adiivr*

Htit. dn.igrvcmmt inumi lei leader, and imcoi

tt taaTa-hr. tneber ihaa in ajm lean, aiad ll

to net

idtiaearu ru> redaKid ihe

iBfloiiHc of %Bth lo in iti'ialoeerluc Kafnelho atiiderali. priihahij have nuincr,4j. tllici aimmc mimeer lotamii. .ind

.Joiir.iii.iMi. it-ooeKigi 'he pari* and iincaiaval

Thcx itlKul arcrinrai i- rati imal rdanning and unaa iln.tciiKoi BJ Kimc arc) ui beinCatti'i tniernational'nd jipiriiinin- Thereaa reaun tn Dvlieic. raiaocr. .'mi moderate leidtri ai an) Ine) tutc actnal or puuiHulnuajoffuxno' ibeand <riarii) lam. Thai (wald ctuafcnd oflienew (encratioaerejlerlit> ihruaah the remainder ol tha decade. CiptvuOi if confidence in Catiro ciMliiflac* to

dclcr urate

To taeicatap an taav fun oft. ihin ficarn inmld hue lu be Buiintcdigamil Caiiio. hi* teuthtr. aad iheir he) hardline adn-ent .ori'i tlcnifruled beir. lei-ond in ctairptIhe jurl) and Ihe rpaciaitic-il. and axantei of ihe ataad lorcev Rao*oaet ual) to hn bretaer Thuagh he ailerl) bcl-Cihariooati.arge and pnacfal mlllun andipeuratut lhal (rum all .iprv I'u'Hi eomplctef) tntil lo him and hai berth

er.lmvit an ebarwe lhal he anuld raaae

mtnimlevibe acre oaHimedrvtlu-raatin incapable ofaniiih the CSSR art uldtr and ruoewbl) uroneer

thannd hv aould keep Cubalate Soiiel gfbtr.

th* Castroccmnujly lotsiiurttn

e*ihc ley kr**T< *n*oatabkcan aaha* futures rrtujhttutheIhr bcvl main it lhal Castro hiranclftin publicl) to muse about

it j. Ahhotajh ihc rasatmiliit teemi ha* al arcarni.

over ihc Mai dcuOe ant cumbiaaron of I'M followforce* touM rc*ak at arafoundtha ace m

ic wire* lu uaeitr.ro* the Castro

brothers'

Muunitna tracts! anrcu npecuth in Havana aad the rate- nrvwincca- tpearh faded b> dataftecicd. uf the younger ftwcrsioa

Aer decline cat te catamite coadttiont and

Ctpvtiaiaai..

Irrationalcrcclmd atl with ih" Untied Slate*nnim Aautf icaa country

Serbia ounccraon Sonet leidcrt lhat

C tv.ro aad his diQwe uCe. fee that own purpata. seeking laon'roaiaiJtn between Ihc USSR and ihc Uniled St aim.

Ih* coalescence among Cubans now ia iheir leera. IwtmiCB. ar ihlnic*rate or itti Cawro genera-iioawi loadarity that createdmuaa lines

The caulnectKC an the aratcd (area of aof naimnaiiinc young offarell more tairrratrd ineconomic uV>rropmcnl aad social Ira my* II lily lhan in forciga invoetrrnenit

far Caama aad raaatal at heiveea the 'Jailed State* and the Cauro retime will ooniieue id trie The Cuban leader will tend lo blame Iho United Siuie* for moat of hti probltra) anden more fearful lhat oanliivee takent Hee titclmed mstcnii'y all venecs of ueeaatitiaa aad ia fact anyone aa* tyrn-nathtrmg with hi* fee.me -at enemies The chance*ill be very high thai he will ruinate vcrvJcllat agaiau leader* or govern menu thai he ccnUder* pro ilea of the Umted State* The lurbay government inIbeat rasarucrcd ever rill*

latt March, and Caarotoanpaea lhat kadci lhal iddiiiurul (landettme amities against him are likely. Jamaican IVtme Minoicr Srata. arm

viewed by Cttlrouprwt of the Untiede ibe target of Cuban labitrviic elloni Ai lha tame aim* Caatto will alto raamn*.

lo tech roaaJinouf I"

in other Latin American countries, especially in Kl Saliadot and Guatemala

CoafrBaaatitoaa aarned directly ata-the UaMrdhe be more antrly The icaaW; avaiiahkt Uniled Slain Interests Sec nun aid ottri-na in Havana and ihe Guantanamo nj.aw aill beikelyof abuse The thincr* are

i tilllike

l**i) the Lnatdbaatea both in Harane and mcaatcra (aba Mail raliet atamt Ihe United Stalct Could ahu he accompanied by orchmiiaied dtfcciron*net, lam number* Of Cuban* onto Ihc (round! of US faeditiet Aatr-US rhrinrk-hkety lo beerttT moree.-aeWtioreo mayinto akri naanrt and even make threatcrunt teiture*aeuanai*-aaacc rmrfkifbit There itery toed rtaace that Cattro will irvcrcatr and US broodcatttni and iitchtde protramini aimed al uibtmlng Amtricaa rmnoriiy |roups. He hat broadrt hinted thai he wealddaJ Marti bcf.ntran ihc Unacd Seatea

Eten more -tireroe or iriaiional actlont that could lead io ml Mary conlhct bainecn tbe United Stale* and Cuba uiH be more hkely lhaa ever bednnd trrcaitanal pressuresOotbieeB, cominrc lo rise and Caslro til be mure and mure tempted lo release large numberi imo.-sik in th* United Staie* Tentlooi could becomt so acute in fact thai he win decide (scarry out hilar re tehemes In lawn or contain the threat at home, lie count (or

insurce Krtd huadredt of Ihoasandt of atarraul

emi|ret isto concentraitan camps on the mikcrn coast and than eneourate idem to leave or Be rescued by whatever means. Caitro will also be more likely lo us* his inldlitcnc*ondncl eta nor-line aaiviiic* aimed ai (omeisiing aiotenec in Ttine Race and ekwrwhare in the Umiedt wiN aha be more likely lhat be will order Cabin afcnttonduct terrorism in Ihc tinned State*

12

a>

r,mro'aii'C uimuch aider than meal world leedtri Uveacondition, ii Cuba and itae farorabkcceiiive mood.eu predictable than mora. Curtawrweae. whenrvnirand. or ihrcaieaed. hi. brht..u< haiendad to be even rrrorr erratic aad tanprmitaluanel rVcwrraa ea hlra no* am probablyan al in, nana aiata

rarl, neha.rmde mooter, ..

over ihrear*-the ram by Cuban ea.let. the raaaaiad eeeeaacannur_-ihuay* period Mora oaamoat ra tha co-meat ar*m area* uruhKaytiaaa thai hn rteeai breaming gmmmnm, teflreiagrr em and faialrauc maeaL lam. Caatro wd ta al lihelirvood be anrace darigcrout -dverur, theeh* pa*i

There will man be am the rang, olwreent-ihat oader pcaeurc andehr> logicul airam. he wouhl thro- caution tol, and tryu. alary conflict with Ihc Unilal Slaica. II* could aaa Ihit ai .xo-idingl opportuaily lo rally Ihc youth to the Revolution, tn urn "either* hit regime and sartorial potitran. and lo attract tub.ianl.sleort In; would he no more tuicrdnl than certain luerrilla and military aerate he loo*oung rmotutwnary and

would be certa..lrnl witk hi. prtsdruay through Ihe

yean lo rnewil and vkid-ation in hero* nctrmttered agamai the nddt He atight gar.uk lhat Cubes Itowerful rmbtar, fareea. yoinad by tycnyatar mrhlra and luernCaa.e able to withstand UJ amaultarvrmga lor ratteranOonal ceweaoa to tart uronul. tuna, fate* lie nun then once again be ihe tenterajor iatra-national crno oul of what* he could emergt agaan ummpeu.nl

Can..Crm

am, ith.

a*l.

11

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