CENTrXAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY NATICNAL FCREIGN ASSESSACNT CENTER
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BRIEFTNG NOTE: POLANO
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continue to receive little verified information frorn any source about strike activity in Poland; one well-informed Western journalist has corrrnented that it is becoming virtually impossible to obtain information about developments outside Warsaw.
According to press reports,keleton national Solidarity organization has been created in the Lenin Shipyards In Gdansk which is collecting Information on strikes around the country. In its latest statement, these Solidarity leaders claimed that strikes were underway in several major Warsaw factories (Ursus Tractor Factory, Warsaw Fiat Car Factory,recision instrumenthat all major factors aretandstill in Poznan and Wroclaw, and that miners were refusing to leave the mines in Silasla.
Solidarity leaders could believe it in their interest to exaggerate strike activity. They know their reports will be picked up by Western media and then replayed back into Poland by Western radios; they probably hope that such reports will stimulate others to go on strike.
The Solidarity statement speculated that troops were getting ready to evict strikers this evening. This will be much more difficult for the regime than the preventative actions taken so far and would increase the risks of bloodshed.
AfPBDVID FOB RELEASE MIL
Ml Ittary Situation
tialson Missions in East Germany
have observed only normal training activity by Soviet and East German forces.
Soviet Corrrnentary
TASS has issued the first Soviet coninentary on the irnplementat ion of martial law in Poland. While generally positive, the commentary stops short of explicitly endorsing Warsaw's action, except to note the "satisfaction" of the Soviet leaders over JaruzeIski's reaffirmation of Poland's allegiance to the Warsaw Pact.
The comnentary also stops short of predicting the outcome of the measures being taken, merely noting that the Soviet people "wish" the Poles success- While affirming that the steps underway are Poland's "internalt asserts that the situation precipitating them concerned Poland's allies because Poland's ability to fulfill Its Warsaw Pact ccarrnias threatened.
A Soviet Central Conrnittee rnember speaking with an Embassy officer this morning implied that he considered Warsaw'sositive step, but also stopped short of endorsing It. He stressed the importance to Poland ofaid and stated that the USSP wnuid "do all possible" to assist the Poles economic ally.
PolIsh Debts
Finance Minister Krzak informed representatives of sixteen ma|or WEstern governments that Poland is unable tn0 million of the Interest due to Western banks today. Warsaw also notified all of Its bank creditors of the shortfall and askedix-month loan of that amount so that an agreement1 rescheduling can be signed later this month. The banks recently have rejected several other Polish requests for loans to rover interest payments, and the crackdown on Solidarity will probably make the bonks even more reluctant. The Poles' only hope seems to be that the USSR, encouraged by Warsaw's tough stand, soon will provide the hard currency needed to repay banks.
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Original document.
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