Created: 11/2/1981

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Eastern Europe: Continued Food Problems as Crop Prospects Deteriorate***


paper has been coordinated with ihe National Intelligence Officer for the ussr and Emimr


Strapped with orraous bard carrency coasiraiDii, Pb-laad it tcakini ecoaonwe assieu nee from tbc WeU to ejower pan af lb* grainarsaw baa

earorsicdauBioa worth of ramsoodky crufcts. iMadtaa ggffaa rwuaciag. fiw,aiaefl preferably to be repaid la detrv Franca aad Cm da bate already provided Poiaad *Hib crcdiii for iba pucbascillion torn of grain during Iba same period, la addition, tbc EC ha*he talc ofloa* of grain to Poland during MY

lprices, wine ofprobably will be financed by (he French loam. The Soviet Union bat promised toorn of grain to Polandesult of agreements reached in August at Ihe Crimean meetings. Hard euireacy aid from Ihe USSR to purchase Western grain Menu less likely in

ecause of (he weakened Soviei financial posl-iion and recenl hiauoffatnre Soviet eceooeikoa ihe ' jBef

la the other East Earopaaa countries, import needs arc not as urgent as in Poland, nor will fiaaneing be asoastiaiBi. Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, aad East Germany will require somewhat higher gram imports lhan last year, while Balgaria will import less. Romania, which alio hat serious hard currencyand Hungary willimport almost the same amount as lasti Tff^B

The bulk of Eastern Europc'i grain imports will continue to come from ihe West, more lhanercent from ihe United Stiles Although present grain prices are0 levels, deliveries of West-era graia will probably slill coalJ billion. Tbb large financial burden comesime when ihe East Europeans ara struggling to reduce their trade deficits wilh the WaH Thehird coasecativc crop failure coupled with massive domesticxpected to eiport link grain io the regn


Grain eipoeu by the southern countries ate forecast to totalillion tons In marketingillion tons less thanbout one-half to three-fourths ofrobably destined for tbc

Soviet Union. Hungary, the only conshicot grain eaportcr in Easiernsprxted ioO.OOU ions,illion ions lessn- usually go to CouncileatooMC Mutual AuuutKe (CEMA* countries,tbe USSR. East Germany, andJa. Likewise. Romania will exportons, about half of last year's lout.nd Yugoslavia's exports are expected to totalons, also considerably0 levels. Bulgaria, on the other hand, will probablyons, about one-lhlrd more lhan lasi year.


The deterioration in East Earopean crop conditions. even wilh grata imports. will cut prospects for any maMcrm improvement in the region's already serious Food luppy situation aaTaaaBBBBBBwtpply of many food items, particwlarly meat, rcrnaias eaueoeeiy laadeoual* dc-spiie increased availability of fruit, vegetables, aad grain products from this summer's harvest Food lines are now common in many areas: with ihe onset of winter, ihe ideation will probably worsen ai ihe fresh foods and produce now available disappear from (he marketplace.^^

Public discontent wilh tbe continuing foodausing political and social tensions. In Poland. Solidarityne-hoar general Strike onctober partly to protest the goeeransent'i economic policies and tbe current food sfluaiior, aadnew wave of unsanctioned local strikes prouatiBg the same issues recently hit tbe country. This widespreadunrest lasted more than three weeks before numerous appeaU from Solidarity convinced moat nion members io return io workovember. fj|


The mmi significant long-term impact af ihb fair's graia shortfall will bo on livestock production and hcnoc future aval cupc-'es Polmd'i livestocktill fctlion, (be impact of lb* poor0 irala harvests and last rear's disastroos ODtpat of fodder crops. Livestock Inventories arc well brier*

levels, and recovery could aot be expected before

even under idealespite the much improved production of train and fodder crops this year, sitabta grain imports are still needed lo meetomestic requirements. Even though moth of the imported grain will be earmarked (or livestock feed, little rebound in herdnticipated-esult, ualcat meat imports are markedly increased (not likely dec to shortages of hard currency) per capita meat consumption will drop to the lowest level since gf

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