Created: 12/23/1981

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National Foreiqn Assessment Center1

Growing Terrorist Danger for Americans

Key Judgements

The kidnapping of General Dozier by the Red Brigades along with other recent international terrorist incidents portend increased securitytothe Americas and the Near East over the next few months.

--If anti-OS ooerations oroduce oositive results, terrorist qrouos that share the Brigades anti-USas the Red Army Faction in Westeo attemDt attacks against US nationals.

extradition from the Unite* States to Israelalestinian terrorist, has orovBBiBBBBBBBading'i Palestinians further incentive to attack Americans.

Americanif not deliberatelyat some risk in the United Kinadom, to which the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA1 aqain has extended its bombing operations, and in the Near East where terrorists increasingly have used mass-casualty producing car bombs. H


The actions of some terrorist qroups may influence future behavior of other qroups, but we see no evidenceentral coordinatinq authority. To some extent, the RAF and the Red Brigades share similar strateqic objectives, hut such issues as NATO nuclear weapons deployments art* not at the forefront of PIRA or Palestinian concern*.

The Libvan threat to senior OS officials an* the Ahu Kain extradition case are noting screened bv Vest European terrorist qrouDS. Bothbvan can>oaianalestinian anaer over Abu Eain could involve the use of radical. Palestin^narouos against OS interests, especial^ ln the Middle Fast. ^

US is facina terrorist threats from several Quarters which, although unconnected, willS abilitv to react to widelv dispersed and potentially serious international terrorist attacks. |

The_poziet Kidnapping: Others to Follow?

The outcome of the Dozier kidnapping by the Red Brigades is likely to determine whether the Brigades, or other terrorist groups that oppose NATO policies such as the Red Army Faction (RAF) in West Germany, attack us officials in the near term. The first Brigades communique on the Dozier kidnapping and earlier published materials suggest the Brigades are trying to tap anti-military, anti-nuclear sentiment in Italy and West Europe. They hope to embarrassnd the US and to erode the Italian government's Dolicies on the Alliance and nuclear weaoons deolovment. rolonqino^theJ^^naopinq, the Briqades seek maximum oublicn. |

The communique callsoordinated or coooerative effort between the Briqa^ea, and other terrorist qrouos, soeoxficallv the RAF, PIRAA Hasaues in Snain. We believe RAF operatives alreadv have heoun taraet selection and surveillance, and preparations foe ooerations aoainat UR taraets in west Germany. IfDozier operation spoms to be achievino positive results for the Brigades, the RAF is more llkelv to accelerate its preparations for an attack acainst an American official orrder to advance anti-US objectives bothhare. H

The Irish Republican Armvasques are less likelv to tarqet Americans at this time. Most US officials in Spain are located outside normal ET^onerational areas. Anti-NATO feeling in Spain is not high.



Althouqh anti-NATO, the PIRA values suoport from certain segments of American society and would risk categorical condemnation in the US should it attack American tarqets. Therehreat of indiscriminate PIRA bombino in the London area, which could oroduce victims amona American The PIRAonhlnq oamoaiqn in the Unite* RinqdomaU, an* In thp past, haso-nbinqs in Enqland *urinaoliday season. Strinaent security has limited the effectiveness of such cambaiqns, but British authorities aooarentiv hftvjnotache of over son oounds of exolosives helioypd hidden somewhere in the Londonor useuture bomninq


The Abu Eain Extradition Case

The US extradition to Israel onecember of accused Palestinian terrorist ziyad Abu Eain,wo-year battle in US courts, has heightened anti-US sentiment in the Near East and the threat to the well-being of Americans there and elsewhere.US Embassies in the region have been warned during the past two. years that US Interests would be attacked if Eain were extradited


His extradition comesime of increased tensions in the Near East over Israeli de facto annexation of the Golan Heights, tho stalemated Palestinian autonomy talks and reinforcement of military positions alonq the Israeli-Lebanese border. Even moderate Arabs Doint to the refusal of US courts to extradite PIRA terrorists to the UK as evidenceS double-standard on the question of extradition. HMMI

Most Libyan attempts against world leaders have been thwarted in the planning or operational phase before the attack could take place. In many instances, tight security around the. intended victim has persuaded Libyan-directed assassins toff the attempt. Nonetheless, the Libyan campaign against US officials is without predecent, and the potential effectiveness of security, and other deterrant measures is hard to gauge.

American officals in Central America remain ootential

producing car bombs have been used to some extent by the PIRA in the united Kingdom, but such attacks are mainly centered in the Near East. Statistically, there have been twice as many car bombings by international terrorist groups

this year as durina the casualties inwill

neriod in he hiaher than

Most of the recent, serious car Konbinas haw* taken olaceeirut and Svria, where there are relatively 1iaht concentrations of Americans. Unless US interests are directly taraetted, the threat from car bombings to Americana in thejioited Kinadom and the Near East seems incidental and remote.

New Dangers in Europe

If, as the Prench police apparently suspect, Armenian terrorists have worked operationally with radical Palestinian terrorists inore ominous terrorist threat would obtain in West Europe. The Palestiniansell-developed support infrastructure in Europe, and the Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia (ASALA) is among the most capable and dangerous terrorist organizations in the world.

to the Abu Pain nationals and

Americans could become taroets of this ootenHal. combinationalestinians, in reaction case, expand their target list to include US solicit Armenian coooeration



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