POLAND: JARUZELSKI'S OPTIONS

Created: 12/16/1981

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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SPECIAL ANALYSES

Jaruzelski ^Options -

hree days ajtsrilitary solution"}'

Poland's crisis, hassm short of isolating unionjt'ond restoring ordsr in thm foxtoriam., % m_

war of attrition: Is developing between'the

-v : rity forces and those Solidarity factory committees that.have been able tohe likeli-.i ood of widespread violence will increase as the regime

confronts strikers in soma of Poland's largest factories.

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'Solidarity leaders, for their part,overplayedhand in their tenacity In the negotiations withlime over how to share power and were overconfident thet the'regime would not move'against them. Solidarity .leaders must he furtner disappointed that the Polish 'abor force did not spontaneously goeneral "strike after their arrest, as they had anticipated..: They probably still believe, however, that no' one can

run Poland without their cooperation. .

unlikely to allow the" situs- -

- stalemated foraving committed"

'-himself,igh-risk coarse in Imposing martial law.

' ' H" canattempt to "reopen negotiations witha=1ty leader Walesa, hoping that the union's more

leaders now may be willing and able to makeor he .can apply brute force massively to,destroy Solidarity completely. fJT*

, y reopening negotiations, Warsaw may hope that the rank and file will show more flexibility, having seen what militancy can precipitate. ove,does not appear toremising possibility, both because the regime currently seeme disinterested

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olitical solution and br^musa union leadersly would be unwilling toeal whiletestbers are still being arrested. CsaneV

'The sore,ate prospect tm for anin the use of force with greater participationArmy. This course runs the risk that the Arrayunreliable. It also is possible that aof force will be no store successful than thein breaking.the workers' movement, restoringthe'factories operating again. Suchpush Poland toward chaos. .<

Original document.

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