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SPECIAL ANALYSIS
olidarity's Congress
V "The second session of the Solidarity congress that opensvitlrucial determinant of the union's future course. .radicals appear to have the momentum, but Solidarity leadermoderateseasonable chance of containing their pres-sure. Even if the congress mixes,moderation and militancy, thewill continue to press the government.. This will help in-differences within the regime over etrategy for dealingimion. . *'v-
The session, which in slated to last aboutuch greater significance than thebecause it will set Solidarity's program and national leadership. Although there willpressure toome of the controversialtabled at the first session, they are notbe made an explicit part of the permanent program. Onkey issue of organization, the delegates seemWalesa's efforts to grant considerablecentral leadership. " ?
Debates will reflectveased frustrationilitancy among theany are unhappy that the irst'session of the congress bogged down in.lengthywrangling and failed'to address economiceveral Important regional chapters have' instructed_ delegates.toard line .on these and'other issues.'
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A'key question will be how to respond to the tough . -positions adopted by Mosccv and Warsaw. Their harsh tatements haveeries of heated rejoinders from' local'and regional union chapters, and there will be strong pressure for the congress to enter the fray. The bast the moderates probably can hone for is to tone down the language of any resolution.
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The government's rhetoric also has lad cometo question continued cooperation with it. soem determined to pusheneral strikesimilar showdown to force the government to'be According to one union official, the re-offensive shows that it is "not scaredlisten seriously.
fV . V Other militants want the. union to ignore theand to take control over economic processes at the grass-roots level. The issue of worker self-management will thus be the major point of contention. Militants may feel betrayed by the Solidarity leadership's support' for the compromise plan' passed by parliament yesterday, -and the moderates will nave to use all their powers' persuasion to avoid it3 repudiation. fmBB*. .o-
Several other emotionally charged issues may causebetween the moderates and the militants. "the recent*'arrests of Solidarity activists mayin callseneral strike in retaliation. yesterdayiners innion official's arrest is indicativemood.
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inegotiations with the government overaccess are at an impasse. There isradio and television strike,
Moderates' Strengths
.The ability of* the'moderates to ride out this surge of militancy is enhanced by their apparent control of the resolutions drafting process. Militants will have towage their battle from the floor. 4ss*>
Walesa himself is the moderates' other main asset. He remains the embodiment of Solidarity and la aleader capable of appealing to the rank and file over the heads of regional rivals. Although he will argue for unity and against provocation, he may have to commit himself to more militant positions than he prefers to get his way.
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n recent weeks, however, Walesa has been generally quiet, and he nay have to do some tough talking to shore, up his image. One activist claims' that Walesa increas- ingly is being comparedparty hack" who'keepspeople why^ they cannot get what they want. fsmmm*
Likely Soviet Reaction* ,
* Soviet statements have made it clear that Moscow considers Solidarity's growing challenge to the regime--nd particularly its appeal to the workers of Eastern _Europe and .thehreat to Sovietiolation of Poland's obligations under the Warsaw pact. If the congress were- again to throw down irecttheoscow would,minimum, intensify its pressure until Warsaw actsully to curb the union. Although Moscow presumably recognizes that such action could provoke.disorders that might ultimately requlrelnterventlon, it appears willing to. take this gamble,
Even if the congressore ambiguousseems unlikely to return to its precongressof allowing the regime considerableby Solidarity, however, probably willmeasured Soviet pressure.
Any future expressions of militancy, will promptSoviet demands that Warsaw punish the offenders. To encourage compliance by th. .egime, Moscow will keep -alive the threat of economic sanctions and continue to j. cultivate potential hardline alternatives to the currant
Poliah leaders, .
Even if the union moderates prevail at the congress there.will be enoughhow of militancy to kuephigh. hin the union and the regime will seriously complicate efforts by moderates on both sides toodus vivendi. Meanwhile,Soviet pressure will deny the Poles any significant breathing space, eesea
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