SPECIAL ANALYSES -- POLAND: JARUZELSKI'S OPTIONS

Created: 12/1/1981

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Thekrao aaua aftertiiitar. oolutien to Poland'a eriiit, haa fallen ahort of imolating union -ilitante and rootoring ordmr in the faotoriaa. mme

A war of attrition is developing between theforces and those Solidarity factory committees that have boon able to reconstitute themselves. Theof widespread violence will increase as the regimestrikers in some of Poland's largest factories

Solidarity leaders, for their part, overplayed thei hand in their tenacity in the negotiations with the regime over how to share power and were overconfident that the regime would not move against them. Solidarity leaders must be further disappointed that the Polish labor force did not spontaneously go outeneral strike after their arrest, as they had anticipated. They probably still believe, however, that no one can run Poland without their cooperation.

Premier Jaru2elski is unlikely to allow theto remain stalemated for long, having committed himselfigh-risk course in imposing martial law. He can either attempt to reopen negotiations withleader Walesa, hoping that the union's more moderate leaders now may be willing and able to make concessions, or he can apply brute force massively to destroy Solidarity completely. BJ|

By reopening negotiations, Warsaw nay hope that the rank and file will show more flexibility, having seen what militancy can precipitate. ove,does not appear toromising possibility, both because the regime currently seems disinterested

olitical solution and because union leaders prob-aily would bo unwilling toeal while Solidarity members are still being arrested, ffjjl

The more likely, immediate prospect is for anin the use of force with greater participation by the Army. This course runs the risk that the Army will prove unreliable. It also is possiblereater use of force will be no more successful than the current level in breaking the workers' movement, restoring order and getting the factories operating again. Such action could push Poland toward chaos, mmm*

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