RESPONSE TO DCI QUERIES -- "IF THE POLISH GOVERNMENT MAKES MARTIAL LAW WORK AND

Created: 12/18/1981

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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RESPONSE TO DCI QUERIES

If the Polishmartial law work and settles Poland, will it allow Che Soviets additional freedom of action elsewhere?

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Stabilization of the situation in Poland would have some impact on Soviet freedom of action. If the Polish government's gamble on martial law obviates the necessity for direct Soviet intervention. Moscow could stand to gain at least indirectly. olution to the-Polish crisis would enhance Soviet credibility in anygesture or demonstration of support for Syriasrael, Libya against Egypt, or even Cuba against the- nited states. The Soviets may even be tempted to divert international attention from their vulnerability on their western border by stepping up actions ln* Ij"

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Central America. More generally, Soviet policymakersi>;V. and planners will be free to turn their attention to

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Soviet freedom of maneuver elsewhere will continuee circumscribed, however, at least in some measure^ "i" the*

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Is there any relations between the escalation of leftist activity in Central America, mobilization in North Korea, Poland, and Afghanistan?

We have no evidence of any direct connection among

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the events Inof leftist activity

in Central America, mobilization in North Korea, "

augmentation of Soviet forces in Afghanistan, and the

deepening crisis In Poland. Recent political

military actions in those areas suggestarefully

coordinated global offensiveroad front .than

relatively Isolated developments explicable for the- most

part In terms of local circumstances and j 1

almost certainly does not relishof having its military burden In Afghanistanby the necessityilitary lntorvepj:quell disturbances inijf

has.no influenceongyang; it

unlikely It was consulted during preparations, for- !

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recent mobilization exercise fr,<

Americaesponse to local opportunities,t would hardly be adverse to having developments there divert US and Western attention from events In Polandi:

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support for leftist forces In Central;;.

CONFLBENTIAL

rt Is more likely that political leaders in third world may take advantaqe of the preoccupationsuperpowers in order to advance their ll-sung, for example, may-believe that this ismoment for heating up differences on Korean peninsula. Central America leftists may alsoopportunity to escalate their actions in view of preoccupation with the Polish crisis. annexation oflan raay have been predicated on notion that there would be littlethis crucial "

Original document.

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